January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

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MontgomeryCoWx
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January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:40 pm

Since the first 3 days of January are showing up in the long range, let’s kick off what could be a very exciting weather month in the HGX area.
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Re: January 2019 - Winter is Coming!

Post by Andrew » Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:45 pm

GEFS still showing some wind reversal at the end of the month.
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Re: January 2019 - Winter is Coming!

Post by vci_guy2003 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:50 pm

Andrew - what does this mean ?

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Re: January 2019 - Winter is Coming!

Post by Andrew » Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:08 pm

vci_guy2003 wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:50 pm
Andrew - what does this mean ?
Those winds are associated with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that could lead to colder temperatures for part of Europe and the Eastern United States depending on where it sets up and how strong it is. The GEFS is coming in a little more aggressive that the west to east flow we normally see could reverse direction some by the beginning of the New Year. If that happens it could open the door for colder air.
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Re: January 2019 - Winter is Coming!

Post by srainhoutx » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:21 pm

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Outlook through mid January.
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Re: January 2019 - Winter is Coming!

Post by GBinGrimes » Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:01 am

This will be a very long stretch of the imagination and wish-casting!!

This morning while in the deer stand I saw 2 separate, massive flocks of small black birds flying south. Both made the sound of approaching rain and wind. The numbers of birds was far into the 10's of thousands in each flock. It was amazing to hear and see.

I will now interpret that into we will have blizzard conditions within the next 2 weeks. Ha!!

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to everyone! It is so nice to know that this site has a permanent future.

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Re: January 2019 - Winter is Coming!

Post by CRASHWX » Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:19 am

Cold is coming and it could be severe...JMO...been looking at several sites and watched several forecast and all point to big changes brewing
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Re: January 2019 - Winter is Coming!

Post by harp » Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:05 pm

The GFS has been trending back to warm again. Unbelievable. No consistency at all and very puzzling.

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Re: January 2019 - Winter is Coming!

Post by CRASHWX » Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:24 pm

So many moving parts globally the models are have a tough time locking in on a solution. I think maybe mathematical models have issues when complex changes occur...I think maybe one has to look at the past and see the future...models may not lock and load till a week out. Time will tell
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Re: January 2019 - Winter is Coming!

Post by harp » Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:47 pm

The FV-3 GFS dumps the cold southward. Almost opposite of the regular GFS. Go figure.....

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