January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead
It’s curently 74 degrees here in Wharton..big warmups can sometimes be followed by big cool downs.
The 12Z FV3 GFS didn't run this morning.
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Andrew
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Not seeing anything too special until late part of the month where some stronger cold air could filter south. Until then most of the coldest stuff will stay over the eastern part of the U.S.
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Katdaddy
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Cooler weather with highs in the 60s across SE TX. Mostly sunny skies this morning with increasing high clouds this afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies Thursday followed by rain and scattered showers Friday and Saturday.
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Kingwood36
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Dont get you're Hope's up yet still a long ways away
I’m not really seeing anything on the models as far as cold and precip goes that has me excited yet. The FV3 GFS was trending in a great direction for that yesterday, but has kind of backed off from that the past couple runs. Looks like just a marginal shot for any cold air over the next couple weeks and about another 1-2” of rain across the area on average. Looks like the best chances of rain will be north and east of Houston as of right now. I believe sometime after the 20th we could maybe see some colder air down here, but till then the weather appears to be pretty bland.
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CRASHWX
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I agree...but it has become very clear to me that model chasing looking for major Atmospheric change does not work...if the atmosphere is in flux the models don’t handle more than five days well. IMOCpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:08 pm I’m not really seeing anything on the models as far as cold and precip goes that has me excited yet. The FV3 GFS was trending in a great direction for that yesterday, but has kind of backed off from that the past couple runs. Looks like just a marginal shot for any cold air over the next couple weeks and about another 1-2” of rain across the area on average. Looks like the best chances of rain will be north and east of Houston as of right now. I believe sometime after the 20th we could maybe see some colder air down here, but till then the weather appears to be pretty bland.
CRASHWX 
The last few days, I've noticed some green starting to emerge on the banana trees -- the light freezes we had didn't kill the trunks, so they are poised to bloom once Spring hits. I hope we can escape the rest of the winter without another freeze. My back yard is nicely intact and I'd like to keep it that way!!
I wouldn’t get your hopes up. There’s potential from about Jan 20th to about mid March where we could get brutally cold.jasons wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:28 pm The last few days, I've noticed some green starting to emerge on the banana trees -- the light freezes we had didn't kill the trunks, so they are poised to bloom once Spring hits. I hope we can escape the rest of the winter without another freeze. My back yard is nicely intact and I'd like to keep it that way!!
There always is. Some years we luck out, and some years we don't (depending on your perspective). The one thing I've learned is that even now in 2018, anything modeled past 5 days is still just speculative fantasy.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:39 pmI wouldn’t get your hopes up. There’s potential from about Jan 20th to about mid March where we could get brutally cold.jasons wrote: ↑Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:28 pm The last few days, I've noticed some green starting to emerge on the banana trees -- the light freezes we had didn't kill the trunks, so they are poised to bloom once Spring hits. I hope we can escape the rest of the winter without another freeze. My back yard is nicely intact and I'd like to keep it that way!!
NWS Houston has a Brazos flood update posted, with youtube video: https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1 ... 1921855488
Matt Lanza is posting from #AMS2019 : https://twitter.com/mattlanza
wish I could be a fly on the wall https://twitter.com/ametsoc
Matt Lanza is posting from #AMS2019 : https://twitter.com/mattlanza
wish I could be a fly on the wall https://twitter.com/ametsoc
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/05/us/g ... 5290710106
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... -shutdown/
https://www.bradenton.com/news/politics ... =hootsuite
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/2019 ... rm-reports
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/ ... 16445.html
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/09/us/shutd ... index.html
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... paredness/