January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[CRASHWX]

I’ve found over the years that our cold weather lovers emotionally hedge when things aren’t going like they want them too. LOL.

That’s okay as we all tend to do this with things we are passionate about. It also leads us to make statements that aren’t based in fact.

I made a longer post about this on storm2k that did bring facts into play. I feel confident that The last two weeks of Jan and Feb will bring us cold. Now we just need the moisture to cooperate and that is always a shot in the dark.

AGREE!

[CRASHWX]

MJO

[harp]

432D9E00-3313-46BC-BCB3-9098D0836E0A.pngMJO

Can you interpret this please?

[CRASHWX]

It just shows the forecasted phasingbto move to a phase that normally indicates cold for Plains east in the US

[harp]

Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

Changes are brewing as we end the weekend. Gulf moisture has returned and likely will stick around until late Tuesday/early Wednesday. A front will arrive and clear the Coast setting the stage for a Coastal trough/low to organize late Thursday. Another strong storm system pushes in from the West Coast bringing increased rain chances Friday into Saturday. Temperatures look a bit raw and chilly during the period when our rain chances increase.

[jasons2k]

Today was beautiful outside!!

[unome]

7-day QPF looks much less in the current graphics, with most of it coming on days 4-5

days 1-3 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
days 4-5 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif
days 6-7 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

6-hr QPF loop https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

hopefully our lawn will dry out a bit

Code: Select all

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 AM CST Mon Jan 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Not many changes were made to the fcst package this morning.
25-30kt winds just above the sfc has limited overall fog development
overnight & is currently more isolated/patchy in nature.
Otherwise, warm and humid conditions will continue until a slow
moving front pushes through the area late Tue & Tue night. Can`t
rule out some isolated showers between now and then, but nothing
of significance. Winds should diminish tonight so fog could become
an issue.

High pressure in the wake of the front will move off to the east
late Thurs allowing winds to gradually veer back to an onshore
direction in advance of the next upper trough that`ll be approaching
from the west. As this system advances eastward, look for increasing
precip coverage over western parts of the state Thursday night
and Friday with enhanced large scale lift...eventually moving
into se Tx Friday afternoon and departing to the east Saturday
afternoon. POPs were generally left about the same (in the likely
range) but did trim them back some across se parts of the CWA
Friday morning with model consensus showing a touch slower of a
start there. GFS is depicting a narrow window of some slightly
better dynamics Friday night along with the possibility of the
warm sector making it onshore. ECMWF not so much. Just something
we`ll be evaluating in the days to come. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Light/moderate onshore winds will continue across the coastal waters
the next day or two. This pattern remains somewhat favorable for the
development of sea fog...but with with winds coming in a bit more SW
than S/SE, fog formation could be limited. In the meanwhile, will be
keeping with just a mention of patchy fog in the grids for the bays/
nearshore waters through Tues. Models keeping with the forecast of a
weak cold front approaching the coastline late Tues afternoon...with
the push of stronger N/NE winds into the Gulf waters holding off un-
til early Weds morning. SCEC/SCA flags will likely be needed by Weds
afternoon on into Thurs afternoon. Winds will then decrease/become a
little more easterly by Fri as the surface high moves into the Upper
MS River Valley. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Will be dealing with patchy dense fog/low ceilings this morning with
the start of the next TAF set. VFR conditions should prevail by this
afternoon...with perhaps some isolated SHRA as a weak frontal bound-
ary moves to just north of SE TX. No arguments with the VCSH already
in the TAF package. However, as this boundary lingers over the area,
we should see a return of CIG/VIS restrictions once again tonight. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      73  56  72  46  61 /  20   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              73  59  75  50  63 /  20  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            70  61  71  55  62 /  10  10  20  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[CRASHWX]

IT IS OUT IN THE IN FORECAST PERIOD BUT THINGS CONTINUE TO CHURN

[Texaspirate11]

GFS brings in the good rain Friday into Saturday
Euro not so much....
In the meantime this weather is rocking....

[Cpv17]

Looks like rain chances are decreasing now for this Friday into Saturday. Euro is basically crickets on rain through 10 days.

[CRASHWX]

For those winter lovers who need some moral support go watch Bastardi’s daily report! He is rock solid on flip to cold and stays cold...if you don’t like the cold don’t watch
www.weatherbell.com

[CRASHWX]

Shows set up coming and soon

[jasons2k]

Today felt great outside!! I wish it would stay like this until April!

[Katdaddy]

A mild morning across SE TX with some patchy fog. A warm day ahead with high temps in the mid 70s with a few upper 70s and additional high clouds. Cooler temps with highs in the 60s tomorrow through the rest of the week.

[Cpv17]

[Kingwood36]

Hopefully its true

[CRASHWX]

Hopefully its true

Effects from the Stratospheric warming event

[CRASHWX]

Obviously one is 6-11 days the other 16 days and out...the other is the 15 day snow total. With the snow build we should have much less modification. Interestingly enough JB support for extreme nasty cold for plains east has ratcheted up and he is very very bullish about not only change but a change that will go into March

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

Fairly active upper level storm track continues with the next storms system due into the area late this week and this weekend.

Unseasonably mild air mass is in place over the area with southerly flow helping to advect inland a moist low level air mass that is capped by very dry air in the mid levels. A cold front will be moving southward and across SE TX this evening allowing a more seasonal air mass to overspread the region and knocking temperatures down to highs in the 60’s and lows in the 40’s for Wednesday and Thursday.

The next upper level storm system…currently approaching the US west coast…will move into the southern plains late Thursday into Friday. Moisture will begin to return from the Gulf of Mexico late Thursday and in earnest on Friday with increasing rain chances which should peak Friday night into early Saturday morning. Overall moisture does not look overly impressive with this system and instability is lacking so much of the activity will be showers with maybe some thunder Friday night.

Rainfall amounts should average anywhere from .5 to 1 inch over much of the area and recent model trends have been trending downward with these amounts and also shifting the heaviest rainfall northward. Still plenty of time for some changes to the forecast, but the period from Friday midday until midday Saturday is looking wet.

Air mass behind the early weekend storm system is not overly cold…for January…but lows falling into the 30’s and highs in the 50’s look likely Sunday into Monday of next week.