jasons wrote: ↑Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:47 pm
I think it’d be neat to go up to Yellowknife some day to experience that. Wasn’t there a Metallica concert like “Ice fest” up there years ago?
Would also like to go to Finland some day and see the northern lights from up there.
I enjoy the cold on my own terms, just don’t care to “live it” down here on the Gulf Coast.
Just did an inspection on the plants - some minor leaf burn on the tops but nothing bad. They will easily recover (if we don’t get a hard freeze). Those covers work wonders.
There was. Yellowknife is an awesome town with awesome people.
I just checked. It was Tuktoyaktuk, but close enough
jasons wrote: ↑Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:47 pm
I think it’d be neat to go up to Yellowknife some day to experience that. Wasn’t there a Metallica concert like “Ice fest” up there years ago?
Would also like to go to Finland some day and see the northern lights from up there.
I enjoy the cold on my own terms, just don’t care to “live it” down here on the Gulf Coast.
Just did an inspection on the plants - some minor leaf burn on the tops but nothing bad. They will easily recover (if we don’t get a hard freeze). Those covers work wonders.
There was. Yellowknife is an awesome town with awesome people.
I just checked. It was Tuktoyaktuk, but close enough
It’s the ice king festival that’s in Yellowknife. Either way, pretty interesting festivals in both places.
Excellent forecast discussion this morning from our friends down in League City regarding the week ahead and the uncertainty in the long term...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR across the area, with a ceiling around 070 in the west (along
with a brief shower at CLL), and a veil of high cirrus for the
coastal sites. Looking for the midlevel clouds to expand across
the area, and though there may be some chance for expansion of
showers as well, did not have the confidence to go beyond VCSH at
any particular site. Guidance diverges at the end of the forecast
period, with some diving ceilings down to low MVFR/high IFR, and
others scattering out. Since this is largely expected to happen
beyond the end of this forecast cycle, compromise with slightly
lower ceilings, but still clearly VFR. Will have to find a better
solution for this in future forecasts, though lean at this time
is to persistence and a scattering.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 417 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019/...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Temperatures this morning have dropped into the 40s for much of
the area under partly cloudy skies. Clouds should continue to
increase over the area today with mainly a slight chance of a few
isolated showers if that much. Water vapor imagery and upper air
analysis show a short wave trough over the Desert SW and NW
Mexico. Polar vortex remains over Hudson Bay where it belongs and
there is an amplified ridge off the Pacific coast that resembles
an El Nino pattern especially with the southern branch of the jet
undercutting the ridge seen on 250mb analysis. Jet stream pattern
also supports southward propagation of cold/arctic airmasses out
of Canada. So what does this pattern mean for SE Texas weather and
how will it change - well it means today the bulk of the shower
activity will remain over S Texas and in the Gulf. There may be a
few more scattered showers for Jackson and Matagorda counties but
that is about it. Temperatures should reach the 60s for high
temperatures but thicker cloud cover over the Brazos valley into E
Texas may hold temperatures down a couple of degrees.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
Short wave trough over the Desert SW does move into Texas and
northern Mexico tonight into Sunday morning so there will remain
at least some small rain chances for areas west of Houston. Short
wave trough moves through the area Sunday allowing for rain
chances to push east out in the Gulf.
Monday a strong short wave trough moves into the Plains and
Midwest with a cold front pushing south. This is a result of the
aforementioned upper level pattern for today. Models are in pretty
good agreement with the front just north of College Station
Monday evening and then basically at the coast by midnight or 06Z
Tuesday. Models show varying magnitudes of QPF with a majority on
the light side. It does look like most of the rainfall will be
post frontal with strong cold advection. Fortunately we think it
will still be too warm for winter precip and too dry as precip
should be ending as temperatures reach freezing. That said some of
the areas north of Huntsville may need to be watched for some
precip types other than rain. Regardless, impacts from any winter
mischief will be minimal since we are only talking about a small
time frame for this to happen before dry air takes over.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
High pressure builds over the area Tuesday and then moves east by
Wednesday morning. Right now we have temperatures forecast to be
in the upper 20s to low 30s across the area but this will largely
depend upon winds decoupling and cloud cover.Beyond that, there
are large model differences, most notable on Wednesday into
Thursday. During this time, high pressure builds down over the
Midwest with the GFS showing 1040mb, ECMWF with 1030mb and 1036mb
for the Canadian. These varying strengths in the ridge change the
pressure gradient over SE Texas and how a coastal trough may
develop towards the end of the week with another approaching short
wave trough. ECMWF has the trough reaching SE Texas by Saturday
morning with the GFS not far behind. But these differences are
enough that higher QPF may either stay off to the east (ECMWF) or
be much higher over the area (GFS). For now, think the best route
to go with the forecast is stick closer to a blend and ensemble
means. One would think that given the synoptic pattern, the models
would be in more agreement, but it seems that no one model is
handling the evolution of the polar vortex well or I should say
the break down of the vortex well.
Overpeck
.MARINE...
Look for moderate onshore winds through the day today, on the edge
of the SCEC threshold in parts of the offshore waters. As weak
surface troughing develops well down the Texas Gulf Coast, some
chance for showers will crop up today and tonight, though the best
potential for rain will be south of our area. In the meantime, a
developing low over the ArkLaTex will result in a very weak cold
front drooping into the area, turning winds offshore for the second
half of the weekend. This will be quickly replaced by onshore winds
ahead of another, stronger, front moving through late Monday night
which will turn winds to northwesterly for the midweek. Expected
wind strength has trended a little bit upwards, and a small craft
advisory for most/all of the waters appears likely, and a gale watch
may even be possible, particularly in the offshore Gulf waters
beginning in the the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
CRASHWX wrote: ↑Sat Jan 26, 2019 1:03 am
I know it is a JB Twet but it is obviously a national map nevertheless the point below average into March
5F4BFF00-556A-487A-A6FF-98B717FBF5F4.png
If we didn’t see 80 until May, well, that would make me happy.
Then once we hit May, it rain every day through July. That’s my idea of a perfect spring and summer.
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:20 am
Wasted cold if it's dry on the cold day and wet on the adjacent days.
No such thing as wasted cold. Cold is better than hot, period. Precip or not
Oh I agree and will definitely take cold over hot anytime down here. I've grown to hate April to November in Houston. Very much look forward to saving up and retiring somewhere else.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 PM CST Sat Jan 26 2019
.DISCUSSION...
A couple of features will combine to produce a chance of rain
tonight into early Sunday. The first is a developing coastal
trough of low pressure off the lower Texas coast. Weak warm air
advection associated with this feature is allowing clouds to fill
in and showers to develop. Short term guidance shows some type of
low level convergence zone developing this evening across the
central zones and this feature may serve as a focusing mechanism
for additional showers tonight. The other significant feature
tonight is a strong short wave trough that will move across the
state. Lift associated with the trough will increase as the short
wave nears and PVA looks rather robust. Jet dynamics also look
favorable so have bumped PoPs upward but have some nagging doubts
that PoPs may need to be raised further. The best jet dynamics and
vorticity advection seem to favor the W-SW zones later tonight
with smaller rain chances to the east. Skies begin to clear from
north to south after 10z and with light winds, feel there is some
potential for fog to develop late tonight into early Sunday. Added
patchy fog to the grids from 09-15z.
Drying should begin areawide on Sunday and skies should become
mostly sunny by afternoon. Temperatures will be similar to or a
few degrees cooler than today. Clear skies are expected Sunday
night into Monday as high pressure settles over Seep South Texas.
Clouds return Monday night as low pressure develops over the Texas
panhandle and onshore winds return and bring low level moisture
back into SE TX.PW values remain below an inch Monday night but
saturation increases from the surface to around 700 mb. The low
over the panhandle moves east late Monday night and the associated
cold front will cross the region between 02-08z. Showers will
likely accompany the front. Between 06-10z, there will be a small
window of opportunity for a little light snow or sleet. Moisture
profiles dry quickly in the wake of the front but there might just
be enough moisture to get a few ice pellets. The moisture is
shallow and not seeing a lot of potential for growth in the snow
growth region but the thermal profiles and wet bulbing would
create an isothermal profile below 0 C below 7000 feet which would
support some sleet. No accumulations are expected and ground
temperatures would be above freezing so no impacts are expected.
Rapid drying is expected Tuesday with PW values falling to around
0.10 inches. Moisture profiles look extremely dry and 850 temps
fall to below zero which supports high temperatures in the upper
40`s under sunny skies.
High clouds will stream across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday night. High pressure will be east of the by Wednesday
night with onshore winds redeveloping. Another weak coastal
trough will develop and low rain chances will return. PW values
will reach 1.20 inches on Thursday and fcst soundings show a
semi-saturated profile. Some differences between models so kept
PoPs on the low side for now but if trends continue, feel PoPs
will need to be increased for Thursday. GFS tries to dry things
out on Friday but the ECMWF remains wet. Split the difference
between the two with a bit of a nod to the GFS which is supported
by the Canadian. Both models show a slow warming trend for the
end of the week. 43
I think cloud cover will keep temperatures from really dropping on Tuesday morning and Wednesday but I do still believe freezing temperatures across a majority of SE Texas will be possible. The main thing that will make this blast of cold air feel that much colder will be high temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s. Gusty winds could also be possible Tuesday morning pushing wind chills into the 20s. I do see a warming trend for the beginning of February though, so those who enjoy the milder conditions will like that news.
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