January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[Kingwood36]

Do you have a personal weather company, or are you an on air or behind the scenes met?

I'm at a private weather company here in the Houston area. I actually work with wxman57.

Out deepest condolences lol is he not buying the cold yet or is he still on his hellish summer kick

[Cpv17]

Do you have a personal weather company, or are you an on air or behind the scenes met?

I'm at a private weather company here in the Houston area. I actually work with wxman57.

Out deepest condolences lol is he not buying the cold yet or is he still on his hellish summer kick

He posts on storm2k. I rarely see him post on here, but he’s been on the cold train ever since around Christmas time saying that he thinks around mid January things will turn cold and during the past few days he has kept on saying that the Euro is showing cross polar flow.

[South_Texas_Storms]

I'm at a private weather company here in the Houston area. I actually work with wxman57.

Out deepest condolences lol is he not buying the cold yet or is he still on his hellish summer kick

He posts on storm2k. I rarely see him post on here, but he’s been on the cold train ever since around Christmas time saying that he thinks around mid January things will turn cold and during the past few days he has kept on saying that the Euro is showing cross polar flow.

Yep, he is fearing the worst for cold weather returning soon. He's trying to build a wall in Canada to keep the cold air from making it here.

[CRASHWX]

[CRASHWX]

THE COLD WHIP IS COMING! IMO not a matter of if just when.

[Kingwood36]

6EC4CEF0-B60E-4C1A-9AEB-68909D416BFC.jpegFB1A6582-A8D5-41CA-96E9-27D371C49F5B.jpeg97D5CB05-1B00-4741-9B89-D3B4A4BDCB27.jpeg97D5CB05-1B00-4741-9B89-D3B4A4BDCB27.jpeg

That sure is pretty1

[CRASHWX]

6EC4CEF0-B60E-4C1A-9AEB-68909D416BFC.jpegFB1A6582-A8D5-41CA-96E9-27D371C49F5B.jpeg97D5CB05-1B00-4741-9B89-D3B4A4BDCB27.jpeg97D5CB05-1B00-4741-9B89-D3B4A4BDCB27.jpeg

That sure is pretty1

It sure is colorful anyway! Lol

[sambucol]

My head is spinning with all the maps. Are we in SETX going to be below freezing next Monday the 21st? And if so, for how long? Then I heard another push of Arctic air is coming down around Jan 25 or so. Is that one really cold air if what I heard was right? Thanks in advance for any help. I’ve got to make a decision about preparing 2 houses and lawns ASAP. Not much free time to do that!

[DoctorMu]

Tropical Tidbits is getting a run for their money with this site (probably becoming one of my favorites)

But if you like cold, this is a great pattern shaping up for much of the U.S. (unless you're west of the Rockies). You get a cross-polar flow out of this set up and a bit more of an active STJ... it will make winter-weather lovers more than excited. Baby steps in the 'step down' process of this pattern change. Again, pattern is looking like the brunt of this will really hit the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, but signs are slowly moving toward a more deeper, southern route.

site: wxcharts.eu

Actually, the EPS & GEFS ensemble mean has the core of the cold aimed more towards Texas rather than the southeast.

GEFS has a solid 10 days of major cold beginning next weekend. We shall see.

[sambucol]

Will we be under freezing for hours or days? Is this a pipe busting cold for SETX?

[Cpv17]

Will we be under freezing for hours or days? Is this a pipe busting cold for SETX?

Could be. We’ll know more in a few days.

[Kingwood36]

Will we be under freezing for hours or days? Is this a pipe busting cold for SETX?

To soon to say bud

[CRASHWX]

I don’t think it’s pipe busting yet...from what I can tell it’s gonna be step downs with a peak around 1st of Feb and lingering through Feb. Way to soon to tell just how cold it will get...but seems to be that changes are brewing.

[Andrew]

Will we be under freezing for hours or days? Is this a pipe busting cold for SETX?

Nothing currently points to anything colder than we have seen over the last couple years. Lows currently in the 20s look like the worst case scenario but continue to monitor.

[redneckweather]

Yep, no earth shattering cold. In fact, per most models, the majority of the real cold air is all going East of us once it does come down. Would love someone to correct me if I'm wrong about that.

[Belmer]

Tropical Tidbits is getting a run for their money with this site (probably becoming one of my favorites)

But if you like cold, this is a great pattern shaping up for much of the U.S. (unless you're west of the Rockies). You get a cross-polar flow out of this set up and a bit more of an active STJ... it will make winter-weather lovers more than excited. Baby steps in the 'step down' process of this pattern change. Again, pattern is looking like the brunt of this will really hit the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, but signs are slowly moving toward a more deeper, southern route.

site: wxcharts.eu

Actually, the EPS & GEFS ensemble mean has the core of the cold aimed more towards Texas rather than the southeast.

The image I posted was the GFS model run which has been consistent around that range as far as the displacement of the air building up in Canada sliding south. I do see that the EPS has more of the cold coming south rather than quickly moving it to the east. Though, GEFS ensemble mean gives Texas a quick glancing blow of the cold air but the extreme of it is still focused far to the north and east.

Edit to add: GEFS does come down more poleward and has the freezing line close to Houston this weekend. As trough moves eastward it digs a bit more and freezing line looks like it may approach all the way down to the coast from Louisiana into the Florida panhandle with upper 20's even possible for them. North Texas could be quite chilly and up in Oklahoma with mid to upper teens possible for them.
Unfortunately (depending your stance on cold weather), lot of the snow-pack to our north that just fell will melt as it was heavy wet snow to begin with as temperatures were near freezing. Getting a solid snow-pack to our north would certainly help bring down colder temperatures.

[Belmer]

Yep, no earth shattering cold. In fact, per most models, the majority of the real cold air is all going East of us once it does come down. Would love someone to correct me if I'm wrong about that.

Looking at surface temperatures of any model runs right now should only be for fun... take them with a grain of salt for now. The bigger picture is looking at the synoptic pattern and the blocking that is potentially setting up... temperatures will work itself out as that all becomes established.

See no big change from yesterday. First cold front coming in late this weekend/early next week will certainly bring in chillier temperatures for our area. Might flirt with freezing early Sunday and Monday morning but the brunt of it will still be off to the north and east. Series of cold fronts after this one (last week of January into February) is where it looks like the arctic cold builds in western Canada that will give us a better shot of much colder temperatures.

[CRASHWX]

[Kingwood36]

Why does it seem like colder air always goes to the east of us instead of straight south?

[unome]

Why does it seem like colder air always goes to the east of us instead of straight south?

cuz that's the way the world spins?