FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

[CrashTestDummy]

The ground is still saturated as you travel N and E of Metro Houston. Liberty County particularly near Moss Hill is a swamp. Even my backyard is wet. What concerns me is we head into a wet pattern as the cold weather retreats and a Western trough becomes established leaving our Region in a weakness between a SE Ridge/Western trough upper air pattern. Weak El Nino and Spring Storm Season may develop as we head into March.

And south and east of the Houston metro area! Our yard has had standing water in it since about November!! We live between Pearland and Friendswood. I know there are areas in Texas that are dry, some places bordering on drought, but we're actually fearing drowning some trees here.

[Cromagnum]

The ground is still saturated as you travel N and E of Metro Houston. Liberty County particularly near Moss Hill is a swamp. Even my backyard is wet. What concerns me is we head into a wet pattern as the cold weather retreats and a Western trough becomes established leaving our Region in a weakness between a SE Ridge/Western trough upper air pattern. Weak El Nino and Spring Storm Season may develop as we head into March.

And south and east of the Houston metro area! Our yard has had standing water in it since about November!! We live between Pearland and Friendswood. I know there are areas in Texas that are dry, some places bordering on drought, but we're actually fearing drowning some trees here.

I'm south of Pearland as well and cannot even walk in my backyard without sinking in the saturated clay. I badly need to treat my yard for cold season weeds and out down preemergent for summer but won't be able to unless it stops raining for at least a week. What sucks is that I won't be able to buy a drop of rain in July or August when I actually need it.

[ccbluewater]

Radar more active than i expected today, although mostly small isolated cells. Hearing thunder from the cell just South of my office near Rosehill. Wasn't expecting that!

[jasons2k]

Holy smokes, I just got one heck of a hailstorm here - up to nickel size - it was pretty intense - was not expecting that at all!!

[tireman4]

Special Weather Statement
Weather Updated: Feb 25 12:23PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris, Texas
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNTIL 1PM CST MON ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 1223 PM CST, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SHELDON, OR NEAR CHANNELVIEW, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NORTHWESTERN BAYTOWN, HIGHLANDS, CHANNELVIEW, BARRETT, CLOVERLEAF, CROSBY AND SHELDON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY, SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. &&

[sau27]

Just got caught in a passing shower in the Galleria area. Interesting part was the humongous summer time like raindrops.

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
103 PM CST MON FEB 25 2019

TXZ236-336-436-251945-
Coastal Matagorda TX-Inland Matagorda TX-Matagorda Islands TX-
103 PM CST MON FEB 25 2019

...Thunderstorms with Small Hail Moving Through Matagorda County...

At 103 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Matagorda, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Matagorda, South Texas Nuclear Plant, Sargent and Wadsworth.

[tireman4]

Special Weather Statement
Weather Updated: Feb 25 1:38PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris, Texas
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNTIL 2:30PM CST MON ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 137 PM CST, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN SIENNA PLANTATION, OR NEAR FRESNO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PASADENA, PEARLAND, NORTHERN LEAGUE CITY, SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI CITY, FRIENDSWOOD, LA PORTE, DEER PARK, ALVIN, SOUTH HOUSTON, SEABROOK, WEBSTER, MANVEL, KEMAH, GREATER HOBBY AREA, CLEAR LAKE, CHANNELVIEW, FRESNO, SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON, NASSAU BAY AND TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. &&

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 251852
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1252 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019

.UPDATE...
Discrete storm cells firing up further north than anticipated
early this afternoon. These cells are putting down pea to near
dime size hail around the city and those communities off to the
southwest. Storms are moving east at a good clip...40 to 45 mph.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019/

AVIATION...
Showers and a few thunderstorms developing with a s/w approaching
the area. AMDAR soundings showing 275 j/kg for elevated cape from
around 9000ft. Pea hail reported near DWH at 1155 am. These storms
should bypass the main terminals but in the vicinity. More storms
developing closer to Matagorda bay could be slower to move or more
anchored in that vicinity. Will carry VCSH/VCTS at least through
mid afternoon. Ceilings around 9000-10000ft should see some
lowering this afternoon and as the evening arrives expect MVFR
ceilings to develop near the coast and expand northward throughout
the night with continued lowering near the coast. IFR to LIFR
should be in place by 12-15z across the region on Tuesday.
45

[Cromagnum]

And it's throwing down at the house. Just what I didn't need

[srainhoutx]

Monday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

Strong thunderstorms have rapidly developed over the past few hours mainly along and south of I-10. A few of these storms have resulted in pea to dime size hail. Storms appear to be in response to a weak short wave moving out of MX which only 1-2 forecast models picked up on.

Frequent cloud to ground lightening along with small hail and brief heavy rainfall will be possible as this activity moves ENE/NE at 40-45mph.

Additional activity will develop tonight and into Tuesday with a few of the storms likely producing small hail again.

[Cpv17]

Today sure the heck surprised me. Actually saw lots of red and orange on the radar today compared to the light green stuff we’ve been seeing. I definitely didn’t expect to see any heavy rains around today. Tomorrow is really beginning to look interesting.

[JDsGN]

I was surprised as well. I know most won't relate but I drove my "race car" that's on drag radials to work today expecting a cool dry day. Hoping I get a solid break in any wet stuff from I10 to 290 on 99 around 5.

[Katdaddy]

Additional showers and thunderstorms today across SE TX. The SPC has shifted the marginal risk area just NE of the Houston-Galveston areas but could still see a few strong to severe storms today. Rain chances continue and high temps warm into the low to mid 70s Wednesday through Saturday. The next strong cold front arrives afternoon with a decent cool down for the first week of March.

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center in their 13Z Day One Outlook sifted the Marginal Risk further West to include most of the Houston/Galveston Forecast Area. Small hail still the primary risk like yesterday.

[Cromagnum]

Rough stuff brewing to our southwest. Hail showing up on signatures.

[srainhoutx]

Cloud tops continue to cool as the West Texas shortwave approaches. The SPC has again expanded to Marginal Severe Storm threat further S and W. The short range meso models are indicating heavier storms will be scattered across the Metro Houston Area this afternoon.

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
235 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2019

TXZ237-262100-
Inland Brazoria TX-
235 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2019

...Strong Thunderstorm Capable of Producing Small Hail Enters
Northwestern Brazoria County...

At 235 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
West Columbia, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Columbia, Holiday Lakes and Bonney.

[Cromagnum]

Getting hairy over by Wharton and especially El Campo

[Cpv17]

Getting hairy over by Wharton and especially El Campo

Yes. I’m right in the middle of it. Purple cell on the radar.