redneckweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:45 pm
We will have a couple sharp cold fronts after the first week in February and that will be it (nothing out of the ordinary and no winter precip...Fort Worth might get a little). Soon after Valentine's Day, strong signs of Spring will start to appear right on cue. The pattern since winter started has not changed as models have showed the arctic coming....always 2 plus weeks out only to lose it. Here we are again with models showing the cold....2 weeks out. lol This will not change through February. We have 4 weeks left, that's it. Sure, we might have a couple half decent fronts in March but nothing has ever happened down here in March. I would absolutely love to eat crow but....4 SHORT WEEKS LEFT.
We had a ice storm that shut down the city in March of 2014. Schools were out and flyovers were caked.
I remember well. I drove from conroe to the Beltway and back in it.
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:33 am
Looking like a warmer and somewhat dreary early February start with the possibility fog, particularly Sunday through the first part of next week. Those cooler Gulf shelf water temperatures and warmer surface temperature over land are ideal for Sea/Bay Fog. Tis the Fog season by the way.
The ensembles do continue to advertise a switch in the pattern to that of a deeper Western trough and a Ridge along the East Coast as the first full week of February begins. February can be a month of extremes, so I wouldn't get too excited about warm air sticking around. Some of that building cold air in Western Canada may make its presence known down here in Texas the second week of February.
Careful there my friend our cold weather naysayers and warm weather lover members will be ordering their voodoo dolls of you with extra long pins.
No we won't, cperk. We just like warmer temperatures.
I remember it, there were even some power outages in the Katy area due to small limbs falling, what stopped the storm from being a major event was that temps were borderline hovering around 32-33F with heavy rain.If temps were a couple degrees colder the March 2014 storm would have rivaled the major ice storm of 1997, some parts of Southeast Texas saw up to an inch of ice accumulation from that event.
Also, we had a few snow showers in 2008 or 2009 in March. We almost got some in April in the last decade. They clipped our northern viewing locations.
I don't remember that icing in March of 2014 to save my life. lol That's about as rare as it gets down here.
Any winter weather is rare but that winter we had 7 separate ice events. Hell, this last decade has been one of the best decades ever for Winter events in SE Texas.
Trends the last 24 hours and again overnight suggest a cold front arrives next Wednesday/Thursday ending the warm weather that we will experience this weekend into early next week.
An active highly progressive pattern develops as several storm systems crash into the west Coast and spread inland. It appears there are at least 3 storms that will impact the West Coast and California spreading heavy lower elevation rainfall and higher elevation snow inland over the weekend. A series of upper level disturbances ride across Texas and a Coastal trough/low organizes Friday bringing at least a chance of rainfall beginning Thursday night and continuing into Saturday. Rainfall amounts do not look that heavy, but will need to monitor trends for Saturday as that may be the best chance of any meaningful rainfall.
Next week, very cold air that will be building across our source Region of Western Canada looks to begin dropping South of the Canadian Border. Virtually all the Global guidance is in agreement lending to some confidence of a rather strong Canadian Front arriving next Wednesday/Thursday. The fly in the ointment is a vigorous storm system heading our way from the Eastern Pacific. That strong wet storm system embedded in the sub tropical jet could present p type issues across Texas if the cold front arrives 12 to 24 hours ahead of the deep tropical moisture that is depicted in some of the model schemes. Don't get too caught up in the precipitation maps via the models right now. 7+ Days out, it's best to focus on the ensembles and their respective upper air pattern as the days role forward.
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One thing that has always plauged me is identifying these coastal troughs on the models. Other than precip I am having a hard time picking out wind or pressure signals. Does anyone have some insight on how best to spot these?
redneckweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:25 pm
I don't remember that icing in March of 2014 to save my life. lol That's about as rare as it gets down here.
It was about a month and a couple weeks before my wife and I got married. We were getting married at my parents land in Cat Spring an hour west of Houston. They lost so many trees and tree limbs from that storm that we spent the next month every weekend going out and picking it all up and transporting it to the burn pile so the place would be as beautiful as we had imagined. It looked like a twister had gone through.
Wxman57 on s2k talking about his "Canadian Wall" may fail in the coming weeks. Hints in the long range building cold air in western Canada may drop south in the coming weeks. Models have been rough though lately so it is a big grain of salt...
TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:46 am
Wxman57 on s2k talking about his "Canadian Wall" may fail in the coming weeks. Hints in the long range building cold air in western Canada may drop south in the coming weeks. Models have been rough though lately so it is a big grain of salt...
I have been also watching next Thursday into the weekend very carefully
What is this blasphemy of Canadian Air you speak of?
On a more serious note, this is looking more likely and it’s not at that ever-present “two more weeks” marker in the future. The fact that we are getting to a week out is concerning.
The key will be to see if that cold dome builds in Western Canada over the weekend.
At least the days are getting longer and the sun a little brighter with each passing day.
Operational 12z Euro has a dusting of snow next week for SETX. Overall though, I’m not really excited about it yet because it didn’t really show much qpf overall for Texas. Very light amounts of maybe half an inch to to an inch in most places. It had most of the heavier stuff out over the Gulf and towards the usual spot of the SE. Pretty sharp cold front though next week. Hopefully it will trend better in the precip department in the coming days.
Been sidelined with the flu and bronchitis, and just seeing another front coming. Is the next one probably going to have a hard freeze with it for southeast Texas? I've a lot to prepare if it does, and I'm not at 100% energy level yet. Thanks.
sambucol wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:19 pm
Been sidelined with the flu and bronchitis, and just seeing another front coming. Is the next one probably going to have a hard freeze with it for southeast Texas? I've a lot to prepare if it does, and I'm not at 100% energy level yet. Thanks.
It’s too early to know yet at this point. Early next week around Monday/Tuesday we should know more. As of today the answer to your question is no because the Euro was only showing 30’s and 40’s.
IF the CFSv2 Climate Model is to be believed, mid/late next week turns rather chilly and last until the end of February. Blocking regime looks rather impressive in the upper air pattern. I see there are some 'hints' of noisy sub tropical jet later next week as well.
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srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:45 pmIF the CFSv2 Climate Model is to be believed, mid/late next week turns rather chilly and last until the end of February. Blocking regime looks rather impressive in the upper air pattern. I see there are some 'hints' of noisy sub tropical jet later next week as well.
Man, it doesn't look much better than that if you like precip and chilly. As always, the question will be HOW cold. Big difference in 33-35 and overrunning precip and 28-30.
