FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

[redneckweather]

Just saw my first yellow jasmine blooms in the woods next to my house this morning.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011206
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
606 AM CST Fri Feb 1 2019

.AVIATION...
The passage of a weak upper trough, along with a near saturated
column up to around 8k ft, will assist in ensuring that the
region remains in this LIFR fog/low deck misty muck for the
majority of the morning. Improvement to IFR to periods of MVFR
from the early afternoon through early evening, forecast to drop
back to at least IFR to as low as VLIFR once again on either side
of midnight Saturday. Drizzle with short lived light showers
through late morning with a relatively dry mid to late period.
Cooler lower level easterlies under warmer, more moist mid layer
flow maintains a higher confidence of lower ceilings/fog with
periods of light precipitation. Higher probability of dense sea
fog formation over the weekend will significantly impact near
coastal terminals. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST Fri Feb 1 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Some light to moderate showers are popping up early this morning
in and around the Houston area as an upper level disturbance
moves slowly eastward across the east Texas area. In addition to
the rain, patchy fog is showing up in surface observations and
area webcams, and we will monitor for possible dense fog advisories.
Will be keeping low rain chances in the forecast for much of the
area to close out the week, over the weekend and on into next week
as a series of mainly weak disturbances move eastward across the
state. Look for rain chance adjustments through the period as the
timing/strength of these systems becomes better handled by the
models. The main weather story for the first week of the new month
will be the warming/above normal temperatures that will be
returning to the area as southeast to south winds resume over the
weekend and then persist until the next cold front moves through
the area toward the end of next week. 42

MARINE...
A offshore Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect primarily due
to higher seas this morning. Periods of passing showers will occur
through the day. An easterly fetch over the next couple of days will
keep water levels along eastern facing shores slightly elevated.
This flow is also conducive for the formation of dense sea fog. Sea
fog may linger on through mid next week...until either shelf water
temperatures warm back up into the lower to middle 60s or when a
cold front comes through sometime Thursday. 31

CLIMATE...
Here are some preliminary climate numbers for January...
-At College Station, the average temperature of 50.6 degrees was
0.5 degrees below normal and the rainfall total of 4.83 inches
was 1.59 inches above normal.
-At Houston Intercontinental Airport, the average temperature of
53.4 degrees was 0.3 degrees above normal and the rainfall total
of 4.08 inches was 0.70 inches above normal.
-At Houston Hobby Airport, the average temperature of 54.5 degrees
was 0.4 degrees above normal and the rainfall total of 4.16
inches was 0.29 inches above normal.
-At Galveston, the average temperature of 55.2 degrees matched the
normal and the rainfall total of 5.12 inches was 0.92 inches
above normal.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 56 67 57 72 / 20 20 30 10 20
Houston (IAH) 66 57 68 57 72 / 20 20 40 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 62 58 63 58 66 / 20 20 30 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31

[tireman4]

342
FXUS64 KHGX 011553
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 AM CST Fri Feb 1 2019

.UPDATE...
A few lingering boundaries draped across SE TX today are acting
as focusing mechanisms for showers this morning, as seen on radar
imagery. An axis of convergence seen in the wind field is draped
along the immediate coast, and a warm front remains across the far
offshore Gulf waters. Short term guidance such as the HRRR,
RAP13, and TT WRF, show most of these lingering showers
dissipating by this afternoon inland, before redeveloping over the
Gulf waters once again late this afternoon into the early evening
hours. All in all, coverage should be less today than yesterday
as upper- level ridging builds in from west to east.

With thick cloud cover in place, high temperatures today will
only reach into the mid to upper 60s area wide. Winds will remain
out of the east between 5 to 10 mph, with speeds closer to 15 mph
along the coast. Another disturbance will reach the region early
Saturday, and as a result, better coverage of showers should fill
in west of I-45, possibly around midnight and continuing through
the early morning hours.

Hathaway

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 011737
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 AM CST Fri Feb 1 2019

.AVIATION...
Obs and satellite pix show widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are
beginning to show signs of improvement. Exactly how much cigs will
lift is in question, but would anticipate mainly prevailing MVFR
in the next 3 hours...and quite possible VFR if some models are
correct. There will be some iso shra around, but left mention out
of the TAFs for simplicity as confidence as to when/where is low.
One thing you can probably be sure of is TAF amendments as trends
become established. Look for conditions to deteriorate again
tonight with another round of 200-1000ft cigs along with some fog
development (possibly dense close to the coast). Similar to today,
unfavorable flying conditions will prevail thru the morning
Saturday. 47

[redneckweather]

Solid -20's with even a few -30 spots showing up now in the Yukon Territory opposed to -10's and 20's as of yesterday. Screw the models, I'm watching the source region.

[stormlover]

lol u got that right

[cperk]

Solid -20's with even a few -30 spots showing up now in the Yukon Territory opposed to -10's and 20's as of yesterday. Screw the models, I'm watching the source region.

Can't argue with that.

[BlueJay]

The sun peaked out for an hour or so this afternoon and it was a welcome sight. David Paul warns that the next several days will be mostly cloudy with on and off rain but warmish "winter" temps.
Don't forget: the Puppy Bowl airs on Sunday afternoon on Animal Planet.
Enjoy the weekend everyone!

[redneckweather]

-36 in Fort Smith way up yonder in the northwestern territory of Canada tonight. -30's seem to be more widespread opposed to yesterday at this time.

[Belmer]

Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow. So early Spring it is! I have a little more trust in him right now than the computer models. Surely he'll get it right... at least I hope.

[jasons2k]

Cue Bill Murray - Happy Groundhog Day!

Yes, the cold air is building in Canada. Saw some tweets that Great Falls, Montana is about to plummet. That’s usually where the cold needs to be, to make its way down to Texas. Keeping a close watch on this for sure.

[srainhoutx]

The Climate Prediction Center in their Experimental Week 3/Week 4 Outlook suggest ENSO Neutral condition likely to continue. A blocking regime does appear to be impacting our potential sensible weather across much of North America including the Lower 48 and Texas. Unusually colder temperatures are expected which does raise an eyebrow in our current climate state. Above normal precipitation across Texas suggests the Sub Tropical Jet will be active as the MJO possibly moves into a more favorable pattern allowing tropical moisture to spread into our part of the World. I will note the our Hurricane Hunters have 2 C-130J's flying research missions out over the Eastern Pacific to sample the Atmospheric River phenomenon. California is being hit again this morning with a potent Pacific Storm. Don't be surprised to see weather news being made across Southern California today into tomorrow.

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Feb 01 2019

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 16 2019-Fri Mar 01 2019

The climate background state remains similar to last week, with ENSO-neutral conditions continuing across the Pacific in spite of modest positive SST anomalies. The MJO has remained active, with the enhanced phase currently propagating across the Pacific. There is a large degree of model uncertainty in terms of MJO evolution, with the ECMWF predicting continued eastward propagation overall, while the GEFS favors a more stationary large scale signal over the West-Central Pacific. In either case, there is little evidence of MJO influence in the Week-2 forecast period over the North Pacific, though the consensus Weeks 3-4 forecast circulation is at least broadly consistent with the current MJO evolution. The Weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model guidance from the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA operational ensemble prediction systems and the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), an experimental multi-model ensemble (MME) of both operational and experimental dynamical models as well as statistical model guidance that includes a constructed analog tool and a multiple regression model using MJO, ENSO, and long-term trends as predictors.

Dynamical model guidance from the various models is broadly consistent, depicting a trough over the Aleutians with some downstream ridging over the far northeastern Pacific or northwestern North America. The ECMWF and CFS are in especially good agreement on the location of an NAO-type dipole over the northwestern Atlantic, with high-latitude blocking inferred near the Davis Strait. Broad anomalous troughing is favored over much of the CONUS.

The Weeks 3-4 temperature outlook indicates increased probabilities of below-normal temperatures for almost all of the CONUS, a rare forecast in the current climate. The objective blend of dynamical and statistical guidance suggests a colder-than-normal pattern will prevail over the central CONUS, slowly pushing eastward relative to the current Week-2 outlook. Above-normal temperatures are favored only over the Florida Peninsula and almost all of Alaska.

The models are in excellent agreement on the overall precipitation pattern as well. An active storm track across the far southern and southeastern CONUS is favored, with an extension into the southern High Plains where upsloping precipitation events are possible. Below-normal precipitation is more likely across the northern tier of the CONUS, as well as over the West Coast and parts of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. The latter is due to a suppressed storm track and anomalous surface high pressure. Negative 500-hPa height anomalies forecast near the Aleutians favors above-normal precipitation over much of southern Alaska.

Sea surface temperatures near Hawaii are currently near normal, and model guidance is mixed, though the SubX model suite favors a tilt toward above-normal temperatures over the eastern islands. There is better model agreement on the precipitation outlook, with below-normal precipitation most likely especially over the western Hawaiian Islands.

[Katdaddy]

Happy Groundhog Day 2019! Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow so an early Spring one may ask? Phil is only correct 40% of the time so place your bets. With that said, weak disturbances are also difficult to forecast. No rain overnight or this morning but mist and fog has made wet and dreary. The Corpus Christi radar is showing developing showers which will gradually migrate up the coast this afternoon and tonight. Warming temps into the mid 70s next week. The SPC is monitoring a potential severe threat for portions of Central and SE US in their 4-8 Convective Outlook for next Wed-Fri. The Spring severe weather season is not far away. The next cold front for SE TX arrives Thursday night dropping lows back into the 40s. As Srain posted above, the Climate Prediction Center 3-4 Week (2/16 - 3/1) Outlook forecasts below normal temps over much of the US including SE TX. In addition, they are forecasting above normal precipitation for TX, Gulf Coast, and SE US. This combination could bring another chance for Winter precipitation for portions of TX. For now, its time to enjoy the cloudy dreary wet days ahead so we will appreciate the beautiful sunny skies even more when they arrive again.

[Timothyfar]

The National Weather Service "predicts" this present high pressure system will cause a massive rain / snow storm the last week of February 2016 into a few days in March 2016

I Hope so cause it was over 90F here in Los Angeles Looking at the cameras of the places I sled are melting fast


Predictions are 50 likelihood to happen? Really ??? A 50 chance 10 days out ?

[snowman65]

Phil did not see his shadow. you know what that means?.....nothing...absolutely nothing...lol. if we can trust the models, how can we trust a rodent?

[Texaspirate11]

The National Weather Service "predicts" this present high pressure system will cause a massive rain / snow storm the last week of February 2016 into a few days in March 2016

I Hope so cause it was over 90F here in Los Angeles Looking at the cameras of the places I sled are melting fast


Predictions are 50 likelihood to happen? Really ??? A 50 chance 10 days out ?

Wow its 2019....and I find the NWS does a yeoman job!!!!!
If you're in L.A. I'm sure you're experiencing some really bad weather...no?

[Cpv17]

Something I don’t quite understand right now is why is the CPC so bullish on our probabilities for above average rainfall when both the GFS and Euro only indicate about .5”-1.0” for the next 10 days in our area.

[unome]

great grilling weather for those Super Bowl specialties the grill chef will be in charge of - not too warm, not a bunch of rain - can taste it already !

[unome]

I find the NWS does a yeoman job!!!!!

I will 2nd that, for sure !

[AggiedadLA]

Hey all. Long time lurker. I’m about 200 miles to your northeast, and enjoy checking in here to see the discussion and local obs as things unfold. You have a great board, and I’m glad to see you’ve found a new home.

I’m keeping an eye on the Friday time frame as a departing jet streak, and weak mid level wave have consistently shown at least some threat of doing something small in my area through the Houston area. Euro ensembles are hinting at light precipitation amounts, and the Euro control run has had a few runs showing something. Others show some little hint of possibility witha similar set up. It looks like one of those deals where you may see radar echoes, they have to overcome a dry layer that’s pretty stout, and by the time they do you have a few flakes, sleet pellets, or sprinkles. Soundings are fairly warm, but we just had light sleet at 45 here the other day with a similar wet bulb situation. It’s just something that caught my eye, and I figured I’d mention. Being that it’s my first post, I can’t quite figure how to stick an image here, but you get the idea. Limited threat, low amounts, five days away. But we are in the Deep South, so it’s something to watch!