FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

[CRASHWX]

E084A3D4-CF37-4B5C-8E7B-E5181F0E2383.jpegSrain what do you think Joe is seeing?

I think JB is just talking about what the European model is forecasting. I doubt that if he took a close look at the situation then he'd be forecasting any significant snow in Texas. 12Z Euro indicates a trace of snow around Austin with surface temps in the upper 30s, which is over a smaller area than previous runs.

Thanks my friend...I guess that was my thought but I could not see anything so I was just checking the boxes! Lol

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041751
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1151 AM CST Mon Feb 4 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Like the last couple of days we are going through the cycle of
ceilings and visibility improving this afternoon as winds mix the
lower atmosphere. Trends are for ceilings to become MVFR/VFR this
afternoon. With moisture still over the area, ceilings and
visibility should drop again to IFR/LIFR levels tonight. Quite
possible to have dense fog again after midnight. Sea fog will
again be an issue for KGLS but with winds more southerly, sea fog
should not advect towards KLBX or KHOU. Ceilings and visibility
should again improve 15-17Z tomorrow.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 4 2019/...


Fog looks to be lifting across SE TX and will let the Dense Fog
Advisory run its course through noon. Otherwise, have been keep-
ing an eye on the weak echoes approaching from the west. As per
obs from south central TX, no rain seems to be reaching the sur-
face at this time. Did tweak POP grids a bit for this afternoon
and evening...mainly to match ongoing trends. 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 62 75 64 76 65 / 10 20 20 20 40
Houston (IAH) 63 76 65 77 66 / 10 20 20 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 62 69 62 69 63 / 10 20 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Waller...Wharton.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.


&&

$$


AVIATION...Overpeck

[CRASHWX]

Ok...I guess maybe I need to apologize because apparently there are a few folks maybe that have taken my exuberance and love for the weather the wrong way or maybe they took it the right way and I just went overboard in participation. You know when I was a kid I watched a tornado roll across the parking lot and hit my school...I watched from a second story window...yes pretty dumb but it was the most awesome thing I can ever remember seeing. I was not scared as much as in awe...I remember the ice and snow in north Texas that paralyzed all things I believe 77 ish. I remember hail storms that seemed to fill the street and leave a chill in the summer air for what seemed like hours. Guys I just love the weather and maybe jumped with what seemed like a real cool thing, but many of you guys have been on this board for years and I apologize for any assumption made that was an irritant.

[DoctorMu]

I dunno, Bastardi's bias about CC is sometimes affecting his forecasting.

Man, this high dew point in February is miserable. 70s and dry would be OK, although I'd like to see an insect killing freeze. We might get a light freeze this weekend per Canadian and Ensemble, but I don't see anything exciting through Feb 20...and hard freezes become rare after that.

In a holding pattern for awhile. Then severe season will be here before you know it.

[harp]

Ok...I guess maybe I need to apologize because apparently there are a few folks maybe that have taken my exuberance and love for the weather the wrong way or maybe they took it the right way and I just went overboard in participation. You know when I was a kid I watched a tornado roll across the parking lot and hit my school...I watched from a second story window...yes pretty dumb but it was the most awesome thing I can ever remember seeing. I was not scared as much as in awe...I remember the ice and snow in north Texas that paralyzed all things I believe 77 ish. I remember hail storms that seemed to fill the street and leave a chill in the summer air for what seemed like hours. Guys I just love the weather and maybe jumped with what seemed like a real cool thing, but many of you guys have been on this board for years and I apologize for any assumption made that was an irritant.

Don't worry about it, dude. You don't bother me at all. I was the one who was told I was annoying a couple of weeks ago. I became facinated with weather as a teen when a tornado came near my neighborhood as well. I was in Tulsa at the time. I remember seeing it, and heading with family to the basement. Never been so scared in my life.

[CRASHWX]

Ok...I guess maybe I need to apologize because apparently there are a few folks maybe that have taken my exuberance and love for the weather the wrong way or maybe they took it the right way and I just went overboard in participation. You know when I was a kid I watched a tornado roll across the parking lot and hit my school...I watched from a second story window...yes pretty dumb but it was the most awesome thing I can ever remember seeing. I was not scared as much as in awe...I remember the ice and snow in north Texas that paralyzed all things I believe 77 ish. I remember hail storms that seemed to fill the street and leave a chill in the summer air for what seemed like hours. Guys I just love the weather and maybe jumped with what seemed like a real cool thing, but many of you guys have been on this board for years and I apologize for any assumption made that was an irritant.

Don't worry about it, dude. You don't bother me at all. I was the one who was told I was annoying a couple of weeks ago. I became facinated with weather as a teen when a tornado came near my neighborhood as well. I was in Tulsa at the time. I remember seeing it, and heading with family to the basement. Never been so scared in my life.

Lol...thanks man...I’m just a weather geek and I know get wound up!

[DoctorMu]

so strain ur saying it could be much colder this weekend than whats forecast right now?

Watch the forecast trends. Do I believe the raw 2 meter temperatures are too warm? Possibly. I've seen this play out too many times in the 5 day forecast in the MOS/MAV/MEX and even the MET via the NAM Mesoscale model. This pattern is different in that our source Region is a lot colder than it has been and the air across Eastern Montana/Eastern Wyoming much colder too. Fine tuning of our sensible weather will continue throughout the week.

There isn't snow cover south of South Dakota. So, I'm siding with too much moderation of the cold dense air to elicit a deep freeze around here. Could there be mischief in the Hill Country? Possibly. The FV3 is hinting at it, after the frontal passage. Timing of the overrun would have to be just right.

[DoctorMu]

Models are showing an arctic blast coming! Oh, but it's 2 weeks out...you know, what it has been showing all winter long. We have run out of time.

Winter's been 2 weeks away...all winter long!

[DoctorMu]

Srain what do you think Joe is seeing?

Somebody trying to get clicks on his twitter feed...

[Katdaddy]

Another rounds of dense fog this morning across much of SE TX and the Upper TX Coast will be followed by another cloudy warm day with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

[jasons2k]

I’m glad to have my Houston weather back.

Been keeping an eye on Friday’s forecast low. It’s been ranging from 38-40. Latest forecast has me at 39 - at this point I’m feeling pretty confident there won’t be a freeze this weekend.

[Belmer]

I’m glad to have my Houston weather back.

Been keeping an eye on Friday’s forecast low. It’s been ranging from 38-40. Latest forecast has me at 39 - at this point I’m feeling pretty confident there won’t be a freeze this weekend.

I'm beginning to think many have already seen their last freeze the way things are looking. Sure, 30's are still possible for the next month or so, but as each day passes, the days get longer as the sun angle gets higher.

Average last freezes for Houston and surrounding areas is mid-February, whereas places north typically see an average last freeze near the end of the month or beginning of March.

[stormlover]

man some of yall jump the gun way to quick lol.

[tireman4]

205
FXUS64 KHGX 051016
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...COR
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
411 AM CST Tue Feb 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...
In the midst of the muck this morning with many southern county
and marine locations reporting a half a mile or less visibilites
within dense (sea) fog. Low rain chances today as the region is
falling on the backside of a passing shortwave traveling into the
lower Mississippi River Valley this morning. `Tis is the winter
season and, concerning dense sea fog, it is par for the course
as lower to middle 60 F dew point air overruns upper 50 SST shelf
waters. Introduce 20 knot off-the-surface winds and a fairly
decent developing onshore pressure gradient just downstream of an
approaching cold front and you have the makings for better overall
mid to lower level column mixing. While lingering fog out in the
shallow water bays, ship channels and nearshore Gulf waters is
immune to any such dispersion due to mixing...the muffled sun and
the above mentioned wind profile should thin out lingering inland
dense fog late this morning. Thus, the ongoing inland Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect through 11 AM. A mainly overcast day with
afternoon cloud breaks within a stout consecutive warm air advection
day will have a very mild morning in the upper 60s to lower 70s
further warming into the average middle 70s (possibly a few upper
70 readings) by 3 or 4 PM. A setting sun means that the fog bank
stationed off in the nearshore waters will advance back in and
advect over those communities generally along and south of the
Interstate 10 corridor...relatively thinner fog north of city
where lowering clouds below 300 feet AGL will basically limit
visibilites as, for all intent and purpose, our northern counties
will be experiencing nocturnal early Wednesday morning (repeat)
fog.

Mid week conditions will be very similar to recent days; overcast
and foggy starts with partially cloudy and unseasonably warm,
humid afternoons despite not seeing much of the golden orb. Due to
weak passing disturbances caught up in the general mid to upper
southwesterly flow, low end chances will exist for passing bouts
of drizzle or light rain (showers) through mid week. A blustery
Wednesday as the tight onshore pressure gradient created by
lowering Plains pressure and the eastern Gulf high generate gusty
southerlies through the day Wednesday and into the evening hours.

North to south rain chances increase from late Wednesday into
Thursday with the approach of southeastern Texas`s next cold frontal
boundary. This cold front is timed to pass across the region
Thursday afternoon and be past the far offshore waters by midnight
Friday. As has been the case with these recent cold season fropas,
there is a small window of opportunity for elevated thunderstorms to
better root into the near surface layer. Thus, Thursday`s convection
along and ahead of either the pre-frontal trough or the main
boundary itself will be mainly rain showers with isolated
thunderstorms. Post-frontal north gradient winds will begin to
weaken Saturday morning making Friday a blustery, mainly (mid-upper
level) cloudy and cool day with more efficient cold air advection.
After very warm mid-week weather per the downstream southwesterly
flow increasing 85H temperatures into the mid to upper teens (deg
C), the continental-in-origin air mass that just clips us will lower
mid-layer temperatures down to around 4 to 6 C over the Texas
Coastal Plain. This translates to a mostly to partially cloudy
Friday in the 40s with Saturday`s PM readings struggling to achieve
the lower 50s under a brisk, cool northeast surface wind. Onshore
flow returns Sunday and this moisture flux will steadily increase
dew points back up into the 60s by late in the day (from the dry 20
and 30s over Friday and Saturday). The only other caveat to the
weekend weather will be that the models are advertising the passage
of a series of shortwave disturbances across Central Texas. Timing
is everything and this applies here as moderate POPs remain late in
the week from a passing shower. The additional cooling effects of
this quick-hitting inland precipitation will assist in keeping
Friday and Saturday`s temperatures 15 to near 20 degrees below
normal.

The extended looks unsettled as the northeasterly passage of a
Monday shortwave trough increases early week interior precipitation
chances. A secondary shortwave trough passage late Tuesday across
the southern Plains brings down the week`s first cold front sometime
early Wednesday. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Sea fog, dense at times, should continue for much of the upper Texas
coast and bays until the next front pushes off the coast Thursday.
Wind speeds are forecast to increase some on Wednesday, so
visibilities may improve somewhat compared to the previous
several days, but considering the high dew point air remaining
over the colder waters doubt it`ll completely go away. As far as
the front goes, it appears we should see a wind shift with a
prefrontal trof early Thurs evening followed by the colder air and
stronger northerly winds following overnight. Small craft
advisories will likely be needed for all coastal waters Thursday
night into Friday night. Winds should diminish and gradually veer
around to the east then southeast over the weekend as high
pressure moves off to the east. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
Increased winds have kept visibility from significantly falling well
inland, though any decrease in the next few hours could cause an
additional fall. Regardless, IFR/LIFR ceilings well into the
morning. Near 70 degree dew pts flowing over water temps in the
upper 50`s will yield sea fog near the coast with LIFR vsbys/cigs.
Fcst soundings show some mixing later this afternoon and expect
MVFR ceilings to become VFR before ceilings lower again after
sunset, probably following a similar scenario as what we`ve seen
the past 12 hours. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 67 78 63 71 / 20 10 30 60 70
Houston (IAH) 77 67 79 65 74 / 20 10 20 40 80
Galveston (GLS) 71 64 71 63 67 / 20 10 10 20 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...
Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...
Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Northern
Liberty...Southern Liberty...Waller...Wharton.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31/47

[tireman4]

To all those who serve us...thank you...

[Belmer]

man some of yall jump the gun way to quick lol.

I wouldn't call it jumping the gun too quick rather than being realistic. Pattern is there for another freeze in the coming weeks, but unless the air is very shallow or we get a good snow pack to our north to help reduce the air being modified, it's going to be a challenge getting a freeze down to the Gulf Coast.

I was speaking climatology though as far as our average last freeze. We've had freezes well into March before.. not too common, but they do happen.
Not too sure why many would care for another freeze or not as we get later into the season. 32 vs 33 is still chilly.. one just saves plants from dying for those that are itching to start gardening.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Near record warmth continues over the area with prolonged southerly flow which is resulting in near persistent sea fog along the coast.

Southerly flow continues to advect mid to upper 60 degree dewpoints across nearshore water temperatures in the upper 50’s and the result has been a prolonged sea fog event along much of the US Gulf coast. Galveston spent nearly 12 hours yesterday with fog and so far today has not been much better. Dense sea fog bank extends from the lower TX coast well into the Louisiana coast with visibilities of .25 of a mile or less at offshore rigs and coastal locations. In fact Palacios has been at 3.0 mile visibility or less since 500pm yesterday. Slightly stronger winds this morning have helped mix the low levels along and north of I-10 allowing a near ground cloud bank versus fog, but even with increasing winds today and Wednesday over the area, dense sea fog will continue over the coastal waters, bays, and coastal channels until Thursday with rapidly fluctuating visibilities.

Along with the fog, the area has been within a continued SW flow of moisture aloft from the Pacific and within this flow has been several weak disturbances that have resulted in drizzle and light rain showers. The threat for these disturbances will continue for the next several days with rain chances in the 20-30% range.

An arctic air mass has slowly built into the northern and central plains where a sharp arctic front is found this morning over KS with temperatures in the 1’s behind this boundary and the 60s over OK. This air mass will begin to sink southward on Wednesday and then blast across TX Thursday. Near record warmth ahead of this front will be followed by significantly colder conditions for the end of the week and the weekend. Temperatures on Thursday will fall from the 70’s to the 40’s with the frontal passage along with gusty N winds. These shallow arctic air masses tend to move southward faster than model guidance indicates, so while the current frontal timing is in the late afternoon on Thursday for Houston, would not be surprised if it ends up being earlier in the day.

SW flow aloft will continue post front allowing clouds to linger into Friday and the weekend. A couple of disturbances appear to move across the area on Friday in the cold air mass, but current indications are that the temperature profiles will be most supportive of rain although will need to watch areas around College Station to Huntsville for maybe a few ice pellets mixed with the rain.

[Cromagnum]

Gonna be a monster weed year. Been wet and warm for far too long.

[srainhoutx]

Today in SE Texas Weather History:

February 5, 1986:
A supercell thunderstorm tracked through the Tomball area northwest of Houston, TX and produced four tornadoes along with damaging microburst winds and up to tennis ball size hail. An F3 tornado killed two people, injured 80 others and devastated a mobile home park and the David Wayne Hooks Airport. 300 aircraft were either damaged or destroyed. Much of the more substantial hail was propelled by 60 to 80 mph winds, resulting in widespread moderate damage. Total damage from this storm was 80 million dollars.

[tireman4]

What Srain was alluding to....