March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March
They just lowered tonight’s low for me to 28. Wow. This is gonna be a pretty damaging freeze when it’s all over.
-
srainhoutx
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I find a bit ironic that the coldest air of the season has waited until early March to strike. I see College Station is currently reporting 29F. Brenham dropped to 31F at 7:00 AM and Hooks is 35F. That wind is very cold out there!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
It’s down to 34 here. I’m just disgusted with Mother Nature at the moment. I was getting nervous when the forecast was 38. Now it’s 28. A 10 degree drop that may go lower. I’ll just be glad when it’s over.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:
Freeze Watch is in effect for nearly all of SE TX for tonight…will be upgraded to a freeze warning later today.
Very cold late season arctic air mass has entrenched over the state this morning with sub-freezing temperatures north of a line from Conroe to Gonzales. Strong cold air advection continues with current wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s over the region. Temperatures are going almost nowhere today with continued cold air advection and cloud cover. Will likely only recover 2-3 degrees, so most locations will remain in the 30’s. A weak short wave will move across the area this afternoon and evening and may produce some very light rain/drizzle or sleet pellets, but chances are only around 20%. Radar does show some light echoes developing in the Corpus/Victoria area moving toward the NE so some light rain/sleet may be possible with this activity. The passing of this feature to the east and a deepening surface cold dome will end the weak lift and allow skies to clear this evening, but how fast the skies clear will determine how cold it will get Tuesday morning.
Looks like the entire area will freeze tonight as skies clear. Winds do not go fully calm, so the bottom does not completely fall out of the temperatures, but with such a cold air mass just to our north over OK and KS the light NNE winds will help pushing the freezing line to the coast. Expect many areas to fall below freezing and areas along and NW of US 59 will likely fall into the upper 20’s. A hard freeze is possible (at or below 25 for 2 or more hours) north of a line from College Station to Cleveland. This will be a damaging freeze to vegetation that has already broke dormancy and any tropical plants as well as any agriculture interest that planted early. Looking like 4-6 hours below freezing for most locations, maybe 6-8 hours up north.
Sunny skies on Tuesday will allow a fairly decent warm up into the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. Another cold night Tuesday night with lows back around freezing for many areas.
Large cold surface high begins to move eastward Wednesday allowing winds to become onshore. Nearshore waters will have been cooled well into the 50’s by this recent cold outbreak and by late Thursday and Friday mid 60 degree dewpoints will be flowing across these waters. Sea fog will form and likely remain in place along the coast Friday-the weekend.
Will need to keep a very close eye on Saturday as a powerful upper level storm system will be ejecting into the plains with decent jet stream dynamics in place over SE TX. Instability increases late Friday into Saturday and shear profiles look strong. Flow veers to the SW and capping will likely develop off the higher terrain of NE MX, but lift may be strong enough to break through the mid level cap. There are still details to work out, but heavy rainfall and strong/severe storms could be possible in this setup.
Tornado Outbreak (3-3-19):
Yesterday resulted in a significant tornado outbreak across the SE US in the states of GA, AL, and northern FL. A powerful tornado struck Lee County, AL resulting in 23 fatalities. Yesterday was the largest number of fatalities from a tornado in a single day since May 20, 2013 when a tornado struck Newcastle, OKC, and Moore, OK. Additionally, the 23 fatalities were more fatalities in one tornado than all the tornado fatalities of 2018. This is the most tornado fatalities in the state of AL, since the catastrophic outbreak of April 2011 which killed nearly 350 people. While much focus is paid to the central plains and “tornado Alley” there is a secondary US tornado maximum in the SE US across the states of MS, AL, and GA known as “Dixie Alley”. Tornadoes in this region can be equally as violent as the central plains tornadoes and usually occur Feb-Apr prior to the big severe weather of the plains. These tornadoes tend to have little visibility as they often are wrapped in heavy rainfall and can move on the order of 30-50mph. Some of the cells yesterday were moving at 60mph. While warning methods offered in many cases 20-30 minutes of lead warning, the infrastructure in this part of the county does not offer readily available safe locations from the damaging effects of violent tornadoes. Hence these tornadoes can be particularly deadly.
Freeze Watch is in effect for nearly all of SE TX for tonight…will be upgraded to a freeze warning later today.
Very cold late season arctic air mass has entrenched over the state this morning with sub-freezing temperatures north of a line from Conroe to Gonzales. Strong cold air advection continues with current wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s over the region. Temperatures are going almost nowhere today with continued cold air advection and cloud cover. Will likely only recover 2-3 degrees, so most locations will remain in the 30’s. A weak short wave will move across the area this afternoon and evening and may produce some very light rain/drizzle or sleet pellets, but chances are only around 20%. Radar does show some light echoes developing in the Corpus/Victoria area moving toward the NE so some light rain/sleet may be possible with this activity. The passing of this feature to the east and a deepening surface cold dome will end the weak lift and allow skies to clear this evening, but how fast the skies clear will determine how cold it will get Tuesday morning.
Looks like the entire area will freeze tonight as skies clear. Winds do not go fully calm, so the bottom does not completely fall out of the temperatures, but with such a cold air mass just to our north over OK and KS the light NNE winds will help pushing the freezing line to the coast. Expect many areas to fall below freezing and areas along and NW of US 59 will likely fall into the upper 20’s. A hard freeze is possible (at or below 25 for 2 or more hours) north of a line from College Station to Cleveland. This will be a damaging freeze to vegetation that has already broke dormancy and any tropical plants as well as any agriculture interest that planted early. Looking like 4-6 hours below freezing for most locations, maybe 6-8 hours up north.
Sunny skies on Tuesday will allow a fairly decent warm up into the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. Another cold night Tuesday night with lows back around freezing for many areas.
Large cold surface high begins to move eastward Wednesday allowing winds to become onshore. Nearshore waters will have been cooled well into the 50’s by this recent cold outbreak and by late Thursday and Friday mid 60 degree dewpoints will be flowing across these waters. Sea fog will form and likely remain in place along the coast Friday-the weekend.
Will need to keep a very close eye on Saturday as a powerful upper level storm system will be ejecting into the plains with decent jet stream dynamics in place over SE TX. Instability increases late Friday into Saturday and shear profiles look strong. Flow veers to the SW and capping will likely develop off the higher terrain of NE MX, but lift may be strong enough to break through the mid level cap. There are still details to work out, but heavy rainfall and strong/severe storms could be possible in this setup.
Tornado Outbreak (3-3-19):
Yesterday resulted in a significant tornado outbreak across the SE US in the states of GA, AL, and northern FL. A powerful tornado struck Lee County, AL resulting in 23 fatalities. Yesterday was the largest number of fatalities from a tornado in a single day since May 20, 2013 when a tornado struck Newcastle, OKC, and Moore, OK. Additionally, the 23 fatalities were more fatalities in one tornado than all the tornado fatalities of 2018. This is the most tornado fatalities in the state of AL, since the catastrophic outbreak of April 2011 which killed nearly 350 people. While much focus is paid to the central plains and “tornado Alley” there is a secondary US tornado maximum in the SE US across the states of MS, AL, and GA known as “Dixie Alley”. Tornadoes in this region can be equally as violent as the central plains tornadoes and usually occur Feb-Apr prior to the big severe weather of the plains. These tornadoes tend to have little visibility as they often are wrapped in heavy rainfall and can move on the order of 30-50mph. Some of the cells yesterday were moving at 60mph. While warning methods offered in many cases 20-30 minutes of lead warning, the infrastructure in this part of the county does not offer readily available safe locations from the damaging effects of violent tornadoes. Hence these tornadoes can be particularly deadly.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Barely freezing temps tend not to zap citrus that hard, especially if it's only for a couple hours. Now if we get into the mid to upper 20's....
Like I said a few days ago, never trust a forecast when they “split the difference” between the Euro vs. the GFS. It will be wrong. Now we are seeing the emergency sudden forecast swings towards — you guessed — the colder Euro.
Citrus hardiness depends on the species. The trees themselves will be OK but blooms are the most sensitive to freezes, and don’t really have a tolerance for freezing weather. If you have blooms already, I’d cover it if you can.
Now, if only the wind will die down when everything is covered tonight. Mercy.
Citrus hardiness depends on the species. The trees themselves will be OK but blooms are the most sensitive to freezes, and don’t really have a tolerance for freezing weather. If you have blooms already, I’d cover it if you can.
Now, if only the wind will die down when everything is covered tonight. Mercy.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4490
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- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 041121
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Gusty north winds and low-end MVFR to open this forecast period
behind yesterday`s cold front. Look for winds to very slowly
diminish through the day, with ceilings slowly rising through
MVFR. Have VFR emerging in the northern sites late this
afternoon/early this evening, while delaying VFR from IAH
coastward until later tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 400 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019/...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Temperatures this morning have dropped into the 40s/30s with the
freezing line about from Crockett to College Station. High
pressure was building through the Plains keeping northerly winds
in place of SE Texas. Winds are not as strong along the coast so
we will cancel the wind advisory for the barrier islands. Upper
air analysis shows pretty strong jet stream stretching from the
west coast to the east coast along the southern U.S. SE Texas is
on the subsident side of the jet. Analysis at 850mb has the front
draped across the area with some S/SW flow over the lower Texas
Coast. This flow may produce some weak isentropic lift (295K/300K
surfaces) for light rain later today mainly along the coast later
this morning through the early afternoon. PoPs around 20-40
percent chance look on track. Overall looking at trace rainfall
amounts for the most part but a few spots could pick up a
hundredth or two. Cloud cover will continue with this flow until
the 850mb front pushes off the coast later today. Cloud cover will
keep temperatures in the 30s/40s during the day with cold
advection in place. Tonight once the 850mb front pushes off the
coast and isentropic flow becomes downward, the expectation is for
cloud cover to clear with drier air moving into the area.
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...
Model trends have been to clear out cloud cover by Tuesday
morning with northerly winds still in place. Colder airmass will
have thicken as well so temperature trends have been to go lower.
Overall think low temperatures Tuesday morning will be on track
for a freeze and perhaps a hard freeze for the northern third of
the area. We will keep the freeze watch intact and the day
forecast package will likely feature an upgrade to a freeze
warning. This may include southern parts of Liberty county as well
as Chambers. There may also be a freeze Wednesday morning as
winds decrease a bit more and less cloud cover. But assuming
clouds clear enough, Tuesday morning should be one of the coldest
mornings we have had this winter.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
The extended forecast looks to be on track for the most part with
decent model agreement through Saturday. Models agree with return
flow setting up Thursday and an increase in Gulf moisture which
should lead to sea fog development for the end of the week. Warm
air advection should support a few showers beginning Thursday.
Saturday deserves some attention as a strong trough moves into
the plains and the southern branch of the jet becomes active. Jet
flow becomes increasingly divergent with jet streak in the
southern branch coupled with a jet streak in the northern branch.
This is typically a favorable set up for thunderstorm activity and
heavy rainfall. ECMWF and GFS both hint at higher rain chances
given the pattern so increased PoPs to 50-70 percent. Flow at
850mb does veer to SW which normally increases capping, however
jet dynamics look strong enough to overcome capping. The main
message here is to keep an eye on the forecast for Saturday and we
will be monitoring data for heavy rainfall/severe weather
potential. Right now it is just too far out to really sort out
those details.
Models become split in solutions with the ECMWF backing off from
any kind of frontal passage while GFS/Canadian continue with a
cold front Sunday morning. Forecast trends closer to ensemble
means/blends but more so on the GFS/Canadian side of solutions
than the ECMWF.
Overpeck
.MARINE...
Gusty north winds continue over and near the waters very early
this morning, with only very slow diminishing through the day
expected. Winds on the bays may diminish enough for the small
craft advisory there to be canceled early, but will leave it in
place through the afternoon for now. Have extended the offshore
waters another six hours to allow a few more hours for seas to
subside below 7 feet.
Though all waters should fall below the advisory threshold for
winds and seas by tonight, a continued tight pressure gradient
will keep both northeast winds and waves at a caution level
through Wednesday night, and potentially even deeper into the
week. As the week grows older, these winds will become more
easterly, then southeasterly, and as that occurs, low level
moisture will increase until it is again higher than water
temperatures. This likely means the return of sea fog towards the
end of the week.
Though tides will be running below typically expected astronomical
values because of the offshore winds, water levels should stay
high enough at times of low tide to avoid a low water advisory.
However, we do get within a few inches of -1.0 feet MLLW at
Lynchburg Landing at low tide this afternoon, so that will have to
be watched carefully.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 37 26 46 28 55 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 40 30 50 32 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 44 38 51 44 58 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for the
following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 041121
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Gusty north winds and low-end MVFR to open this forecast period
behind yesterday`s cold front. Look for winds to very slowly
diminish through the day, with ceilings slowly rising through
MVFR. Have VFR emerging in the northern sites late this
afternoon/early this evening, while delaying VFR from IAH
coastward until later tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 400 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019/...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Temperatures this morning have dropped into the 40s/30s with the
freezing line about from Crockett to College Station. High
pressure was building through the Plains keeping northerly winds
in place of SE Texas. Winds are not as strong along the coast so
we will cancel the wind advisory for the barrier islands. Upper
air analysis shows pretty strong jet stream stretching from the
west coast to the east coast along the southern U.S. SE Texas is
on the subsident side of the jet. Analysis at 850mb has the front
draped across the area with some S/SW flow over the lower Texas
Coast. This flow may produce some weak isentropic lift (295K/300K
surfaces) for light rain later today mainly along the coast later
this morning through the early afternoon. PoPs around 20-40
percent chance look on track. Overall looking at trace rainfall
amounts for the most part but a few spots could pick up a
hundredth or two. Cloud cover will continue with this flow until
the 850mb front pushes off the coast later today. Cloud cover will
keep temperatures in the 30s/40s during the day with cold
advection in place. Tonight once the 850mb front pushes off the
coast and isentropic flow becomes downward, the expectation is for
cloud cover to clear with drier air moving into the area.
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...
Model trends have been to clear out cloud cover by Tuesday
morning with northerly winds still in place. Colder airmass will
have thicken as well so temperature trends have been to go lower.
Overall think low temperatures Tuesday morning will be on track
for a freeze and perhaps a hard freeze for the northern third of
the area. We will keep the freeze watch intact and the day
forecast package will likely feature an upgrade to a freeze
warning. This may include southern parts of Liberty county as well
as Chambers. There may also be a freeze Wednesday morning as
winds decrease a bit more and less cloud cover. But assuming
clouds clear enough, Tuesday morning should be one of the coldest
mornings we have had this winter.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
The extended forecast looks to be on track for the most part with
decent model agreement through Saturday. Models agree with return
flow setting up Thursday and an increase in Gulf moisture which
should lead to sea fog development for the end of the week. Warm
air advection should support a few showers beginning Thursday.
Saturday deserves some attention as a strong trough moves into
the plains and the southern branch of the jet becomes active. Jet
flow becomes increasingly divergent with jet streak in the
southern branch coupled with a jet streak in the northern branch.
This is typically a favorable set up for thunderstorm activity and
heavy rainfall. ECMWF and GFS both hint at higher rain chances
given the pattern so increased PoPs to 50-70 percent. Flow at
850mb does veer to SW which normally increases capping, however
jet dynamics look strong enough to overcome capping. The main
message here is to keep an eye on the forecast for Saturday and we
will be monitoring data for heavy rainfall/severe weather
potential. Right now it is just too far out to really sort out
those details.
Models become split in solutions with the ECMWF backing off from
any kind of frontal passage while GFS/Canadian continue with a
cold front Sunday morning. Forecast trends closer to ensemble
means/blends but more so on the GFS/Canadian side of solutions
than the ECMWF.
Overpeck
.MARINE...
Gusty north winds continue over and near the waters very early
this morning, with only very slow diminishing through the day
expected. Winds on the bays may diminish enough for the small
craft advisory there to be canceled early, but will leave it in
place through the afternoon for now. Have extended the offshore
waters another six hours to allow a few more hours for seas to
subside below 7 feet.
Though all waters should fall below the advisory threshold for
winds and seas by tonight, a continued tight pressure gradient
will keep both northeast winds and waves at a caution level
through Wednesday night, and potentially even deeper into the
week. As the week grows older, these winds will become more
easterly, then southeasterly, and as that occurs, low level
moisture will increase until it is again higher than water
temperatures. This likely means the return of sea fog towards the
end of the week.
Though tides will be running below typically expected astronomical
values because of the offshore winds, water levels should stay
high enough at times of low tide to avoid a low water advisory.
However, we do get within a few inches of -1.0 feet MLLW at
Lynchburg Landing at low tide this afternoon, so that will have to
be watched carefully.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 37 26 46 28 55 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 40 30 50 32 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 44 38 51 44 58 / 30 20 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for the
following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
And HGX radar is down. Wonderful timing!!
Edited - it’s back up now.
Edited - it’s back up now.
Last edited by jasons2k on Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
854 AM CST MON MAR 4 2019
TRINITY-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-INLAND HARRIS-
WHARTON-FORT BEND-INLAND BRAZORIA-INLAND GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TRINITY, GROVETON, HUNTSVILLE, SHEPHERD,
COLDSPRING, LIVINGSTON, CORRIGAN, CALDWELL, SOMERVILLE,
COLLEGE STATION, BRYAN, BRENHAM, NAVASOTA, CONROE, THE WOODLANDS,
LIBERTY, CLEVELAND, DAYTON, COLUMBUS, EAGLE LAKE, WEIMAR, SEALY,
BELLVILLE, HEMPSTEAD, PRAIRIE VIEW, BROOKSHIRE, WALLER, HOUSTON,
EL CAMPO, WHARTON, MISSOURI CITY, MISSION BEND, SUGAR LAND,
ROSENBERG, FIRST COLONY, PECAN GROVE, PEARLAND, ALVIN, ANGLETON,
LEAGUE CITY, AND FRIENDSWOOD
854 AM CST MON MAR 4 2019
...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET POSSIBLE...
A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH WEAK UPGLIDE WILL
PROMOTE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. A LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FEET IS ALLOWING SOME OF THE
RAIN TO FREEZE AND BECOME ICE PELLETS. THE GROUND IS WARM AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THERE COULD BE SOME
VERY LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES THIS MORNING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
854 AM CST MON MAR 4 2019
TRINITY-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-INLAND HARRIS-
WHARTON-FORT BEND-INLAND BRAZORIA-INLAND GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TRINITY, GROVETON, HUNTSVILLE, SHEPHERD,
COLDSPRING, LIVINGSTON, CORRIGAN, CALDWELL, SOMERVILLE,
COLLEGE STATION, BRYAN, BRENHAM, NAVASOTA, CONROE, THE WOODLANDS,
LIBERTY, CLEVELAND, DAYTON, COLUMBUS, EAGLE LAKE, WEIMAR, SEALY,
BELLVILLE, HEMPSTEAD, PRAIRIE VIEW, BROOKSHIRE, WALLER, HOUSTON,
EL CAMPO, WHARTON, MISSOURI CITY, MISSION BEND, SUGAR LAND,
ROSENBERG, FIRST COLONY, PECAN GROVE, PEARLAND, ALVIN, ANGLETON,
LEAGUE CITY, AND FRIENDSWOOD
854 AM CST MON MAR 4 2019
...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET POSSIBLE...
A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH WEAK UPGLIDE WILL
PROMOTE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. A LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FEET IS ALLOWING SOME OF THE
RAIN TO FREEZE AND BECOME ICE PELLETS. THE GROUND IS WARM AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THERE COULD BE SOME
VERY LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES THIS MORNING.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
new discussion posted"
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
950 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019
.DISCUSSION...
At 800 AM, a 1040 mb area of high pressure was over the south central plains. Cold air continued to filter into the region and temperatures were still below freezing from Brenham to Huntsville to Lufkin. Weak isentropic upglide coupled with a weak upper level disturbance was generating some light precipitation. 12z soundings show a saturated layer from the surface up to around 700 mb. The 12z soundings also showed a sub freezing layer between 1200-3000 feet and this appears to be deep enough to refreeze some of the rain into ice pellets. Expecting most of the precip to be light rain but can't rule out some sleet mixed in from time to time. Thick cloud cover and mixing from winds will blunt much of a warm up. Already updated weather grids and will massage hourly temps as needed. 12z MET guidance is trending colder for tonight and it appears a Hard Freeze Warning will be required for areas north of a Brenham to Livingston line. 43
And we’re trending colder...still....
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
950 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019
.DISCUSSION...
At 800 AM, a 1040 mb area of high pressure was over the south
central plains. Cold air continued to filter into the region and
temperatures were still below freezing from Brenham to Huntsville to Lufkin. Weak isentropic upglide coupled with a weak upper level disturbance was generating some light precipitation. 12z soundings show a saturated layer from the surface up to around 700 mb. The 12z soundings also showed a sub freezing layer between 1200-3000 feet and this appears to be deep enough to refreeze some of the rain into ice pellets. Expecting most of the precip to be light rain but can`t rule out some sleet mixed in from time to time. Thick cloud cover and mixing from winds will blunt much of a warm up. Already updated weather grids and will massage hourly temps as needed. 12z MET guidance is trending colder for tonight and it
appears a Hard Freeze Warning will be required for areas north of a Brenham to Livingston line. 43
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
950 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019
.DISCUSSION...
At 800 AM, a 1040 mb area of high pressure was over the south
central plains. Cold air continued to filter into the region and
temperatures were still below freezing from Brenham to Huntsville to Lufkin. Weak isentropic upglide coupled with a weak upper level disturbance was generating some light precipitation. 12z soundings show a saturated layer from the surface up to around 700 mb. The 12z soundings also showed a sub freezing layer between 1200-3000 feet and this appears to be deep enough to refreeze some of the rain into ice pellets. Expecting most of the precip to be light rain but can`t rule out some sleet mixed in from time to time. Thick cloud cover and mixing from winds will blunt much of a warm up. Already updated weather grids and will massage hourly temps as needed. 12z MET guidance is trending colder for tonight and it
appears a Hard Freeze Warning will be required for areas north of a Brenham to Livingston line. 43
-
srainhoutx
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Looking at GOES 16 (EAST), I am having doubts about us clearing out right now.
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wxman57
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I'm not so sure that the clouds will clear out in time for us to freeze tonight. As for today's temperature, we may not top 40 degrees. So far, the coldest day this winter occurred in mid November when the high at Bush hit only 43. Today may turn out to be the coldest day of the winter, as far as the high temp.
So the two coldest days of the whole winter both fell outside of the ‘meteorological winter’ months. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this before.wxman57 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:32 am I'm not so sure that the clouds will clear out in time for us to freeze tonight. As for today's temperature, we may not top 40 degrees. So far, the coldest day this winter occurred in mid November when the high at Bush hit only 43. Today may turn out to be the coldest day of the winter, as far as the high temp.
Wow! Woke up to 43 here in Beaumont at 6am and its now 11am and we are now at 39. It keeps dropping! We are prob at our high temp for the day!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
wxman57 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:32 am I'm not so sure that the clouds will clear out in time for us to freeze tonight. As for today's temperature, we may not top 40 degrees. So far, the coldest day this winter occurred in mid November when the high at Bush hit only 43. Today may turn out to be the coldest day of the winter, as far as the high temp.
Those azaleas are not always right.
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