APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month

[DoctorMu]

Looks like most locations across Houston got a half an inch to an inch. The line moved through fast enough that it really limited the flooding threat locally. The bullseye for heavy rain was really centered across the hill country where radar estimates up to 7 inches were reported. It looks like for the rest of the week warm conditions and sunny skies will be the primary theme. Next weekend we could see another chance of rain as a similar looking system rotates through the state.

1.38 in TOTAL IMBY here in College Station for yesterday's rain + the MCV.

[DoctorMu]

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CF20CA0EC.SevereThunderstormWarning.125CF20CC5A4TX.SHVSVRSHV.7f8acd0e8cb3d031c49d5aca771d5963 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 15:51 CDT on 04-07-2019
Effective: 15:51 CDT on 04-07-2019
Expires: 16:45 CDT on 04-07-2019
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern De Soto Parish in northwestern Louisiana...
Northern Sabine Parish in northwestern Louisiana...
Southeastern Smith County in northeastern Texas...
Southern Panola County in northeastern Texas...
Rusk County in northeastern Texas...
Northern Nacogdoches County in eastern Texas...
Shelby County in eastern Texas...
Northeastern Cherokee County in northeastern Texas...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 351 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Trawick to near Zwolle, moving north at 50 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Tyler, Jacksonville, Henderson, Whitehouse, Carthage, Rusk, Center,
Mansfield, Many, Overton, Bullard, Troup, Zwolle, Logansport,
Tenaha, Timpson, New London, Arp, Garrison and Joaquin.
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
Instructions: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Target Area:
Cherokee
Nacogdoches
Panola
Rusk
Shelby
Smith

[Rip76]

Any chance of more pop up storms on the backside of this system, with the sun peaking out?

[Belmer]

Any chance of more pop up storms on the backside of this system, with the sun peaking out?

Possible. Sun has came out for a little while - mainly west of I-45. Think the best chance for additional redevelopment of isolated storms will be west of I-45 and north of I-10 where the sun has been out longer and closer to the core of the low.
Here on the SW side of Harris Co. sky has gotten much darker as stratocumulus clouds have developed. Indicating some isolated showers may begin popping up here soon. Shouldn't be anything severe though.

[Rip76]

10-4

[jasons2k]

Radar is showing showers popping-up to the NW.

[Belmer]

Radar is showing showers popping-up to the NW.

Watching what looks like a boundary over western Harris Co. moving west while the storms popping up to the NW are moving east. Could see a small blow-up of heavy downpours initiate here in the next 30 minutes or so near Katy. Not seeing any lightning with these pop-ups though yet.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’ve had moderate to a bit of heavy rain for 15 minutes now. Probably another 15-20 minutes to go.

[Belmer]

The NWS has confirmed that a Tornado did touchdown this afternoon in Pasadena. Rating has been given of an EF0-EF1 as well along with straight line winds in the area.

Looks like KPRC is the first to break with the story -
https://www.click2houston.com/weather/m ... oon-storms

[Katdaddy]

Clearing skies and warm weather today followed by mostly sunny skies Tuesday through Thursday. 1.01” in W League City with winds only gusting 30-40MPH yesterday. Perhaps more action for next weekend.

[srainhoutx]

I thought this was worth posting as a hindcast analysis of the thought processes leading up to our past weekend weather event. Forecaster Overpeck gives us a peak behind the scenes and lesson learned going forward. Obliviously, it serves as a reminder that straightline wind events of such a magnitude over a very large geographical area such as our SE Texas Region have significant impacts. Transparency from a forecasting standpoint is critical for protecting life and property. Let this serve as a reminder that it is important to focus on all the impacts of any particular weather maker. The more dependable and accurate information we share, in advance, the better our neighbors can be prepared!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
412 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Looking back at the weekend forecast, Saturday`s forecast
benefited greatly from solid collaboration among forecast offices
along our northern CWA boundary. We know no one knows where those
boundaries are, but we know the forecast has to be consistent
between offices to avoid confusion. Hi-res models did well to help
fill in details that the synoptic models could not. Synoptic
models did key on a stalled front as a focus for convection along
with a moisture axis along it mainly from Caldwell to Lufkin
northward. This led to conditions favorable for severe weather as
SPC outlooked. There were also some pockets of higher rainfall
amounts where storms moved over the same area - some of these
being supercells with large hail.

Sunday`s forecast was again largely on track with a strongly
forced QLCS that moved out of south Texas through SE Texas during
the day. Severe threats were largely well forecast and consistent
with the convective mode. As the QLCS moved through the Houston
area, there were several pockets of damage indicative of straight
line wind damage. There was also a small tornado threat discussed
in previous AFDs and NWSChat messages. There was some question as
to the orientation of 0-3km shear vectors and whether the strength
of that shear would be enough for mesovortex genesis (rotating
updrafts embedded in the line). The line was able to take
advantage of this shear as it went through Houston and to the east
of Houston. There was at least 1 tornado that went through
Pasadena surveyed yesterday associated with a mesovortex. Official
report should be done later today. One thing I think we struggled
with was messaging a low tornado threat while emphasizing the
straight line wind damage. People forget that downburst winds can
create damage much like low end tornado damage. In that regard,
highlighting the straight line wind threat should be the forefront
hazard message. As for the heavy rainfall threat, we certainly
had heavy rainfall but the translational speed of the QLCS kept
rainfall totals from stacking up. Most areas had 0.5 to 1.5 inches
of rain from the system - slightly lower than forecast. In the
days leading up to the event, I think models overforecast the
amount of moisture present in the atmosphere leading to higher
totals but then improved closer to the event. It was a challenge
to track that trend and adjust the forecast accordingly being so
close in location to the moisture source.

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

At 3AM, surface low pressure was located over E/SE Texas. Water
vapor imagery shows upper level low centered over east Texas.
Radar imagery showed showers wrapping around the upper low. This
shower activity may persist over the northern portions of the
forecast area today. Water vapor imagery also showed a dry slot
stretching from Victoria to Lufkin. Surface analysis shows some
reflection of this with west/northwest winds and some slight drier
air with dewpoints in the 50s/60s. Upper low should track towards
the Miss River Valley today allowing for rain chances to end and
skies to further clear. Temperatures should reach the low 80s
where skies clear and upper 70s where clouds are slower to clear.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Upper level ridge to the west should move over the Plains and
Texas through the middle of the week. another strong upper low
should develop in the Rockies and move into the central Plains
Wednesday night. Strong return flow from the Gulf should develop
Wednesday in response to the system in the Plains. There were no
real changes to the forecast with high temperatures in the 80s
through the middle of the week and no rain chances.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Upper low over the central Plains tracks towards the Great Lakes
Thursday into Friday. This allows for a front to push through
late Thursday. This will take the edge of high temperatures a few
degrees for Friday. As the upper low moves across the Great Lakes
another low develops over the Great Basin and then moves into the
southern Rockies or northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday. GFS has an
open trough that moves across Texas over the weekend while the
ECMWF/Canadian develop a closed low which opens up as it moves
over Texas. Overall basic timing of thunderstorm chances looks
about the same among the models with the ECMWF being a little
slower to push east on Sunday. Forecast keeps some 40 to 60
percent precip chances going mainly on Saturday. Forecast does
hold onto some lower end rain chances Sunday but lean towards a
more progressive pattern. Depending upon how the details work out,
we will be looking at a possibility of strong/severe storms or
heavy rainfall for Saturday. For now it is too early to say.

Overpeck

[Cromagnum]

Hopefully the excitement holds off Saturday. I have a cycling event that I've been training for all year.

[sau27]

I wanted to share a few of the photos I got in Bellaire yesterday of the wind damage. You can see a large tree with the top snapped off and thrown across the street. Also notice the traffic signal that is completely spun out of place.

[srainhoutx]

Some locales across SE Texas could make a run at 90F today. Just a reminder that Summer is coming quickly! We are monitoring the weekend weather as well for rain chances and a potential severe weather episode. If you are making weekend outdoor plans, you probably should follow the weather updates as we near the end of the work week. Stay Tuned!

[Cpv17]

Some locales across SE Texas could make a run at 90F today. Just a reminder that Summer is coming quickly! We are monitoring the weekend weather as well for rain chances and a potential severe weather episode. If you are making weekend outdoor plans, you probably should follow the weather updates as we near the end of the work week. Stay Tuned!

It looks like the main threat will be east of us towards the Golden Triangle and into Louisiana.

[snowman65]

what does it look like for Toledo bend lake Saturday? I have a big tournament that day.

[unome]

it was a nice reprieve from the pollen, while it lasted https://www.pollen.com/

Screenshot_2019-04-09 Historic Pollen Allergy Forecast for Cypress, TX (77429) Pollen com.png

[srainhoutx]

what does it look like for Toledo bend lake Saturday? I have a big tournament that day.

Storms, some possibly severe, may be an issue on the Reservoir. Keep close tabs on the weather updates as we end the work week.

[jasons2k]

I had a high of 91F today. Even I'll admit, a little too warm too fast. But I'll gladly take this over the 37F from last week.

[mckinne63]

I had a high of 91F today. Even I'll admit, a little too warm too fast. But I'll gladly take this over the 37F from two weeks ago.

I will take the 37!