00
FXUS64 KHGX 251448
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
948 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019
.UPDATE...
Morning convective actiivty has for the most part moved to
the coastal waters and off to the east. Just some lingering light
to moderate rain at this time eleswhere. Made some minor
adjustments to the grids based on current radar trends.
June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June
Pouring very hard at the coast.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 251748
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION...Have a line of thunderstorms near the coast and
offshore. Expect some of this activity to gradually move inland
and weaken. We could see additional thunderstorms develop with
daytime heating, so even northern taf sites could see a few
thunderstorms later this afternoon. Should see considerable less
convective activity tomorrow, but isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected with daytime heating. 33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA/
UPDATE...
Morning convective activity has for the most part moved to
the coastal waters and off to the east. Just some lingering light
to moderate rain at this time elsewhere. Made some minor
adjustments to the grids based on current radar trends.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 92 73 93 73 / 30 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 92 75 95 75 / 30 20 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 81 90 80 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 251748
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION...Have a line of thunderstorms near the coast and
offshore. Expect some of this activity to gradually move inland
and weaken. We could see additional thunderstorms develop with
daytime heating, so even northern taf sites could see a few
thunderstorms later this afternoon. Should see considerable less
convective activity tomorrow, but isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected with daytime heating. 33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA/
UPDATE...
Morning convective activity has for the most part moved to
the coastal waters and off to the east. Just some lingering light
to moderate rain at this time elsewhere. Made some minor
adjustments to the grids based on current radar trends.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 92 73 93 73 / 30 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 92 75 95 75 / 30 20 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 81 90 80 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Beaumont dumped on again... round 2 today.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
It's been a wet 48 hours across our Region...
Code: Select all
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
457 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019
...48 HOUR PRECIPITATION REPORTS...
LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE
...TEXAS...
...AUSTIN COUNTY...
EAGLE LAKE 7 NE 1.53 IN 0400 PM 06/25
BELLVILLE 1 SW 0.72 IN 0400 PM 06/25
...BRAZORIA COUNTY...
LAKE JACKSON 3.91 IN 0450 PM 06/25
ALVIN 1.84 IN 0449 PM 06/25
WEST COLUMBIA 0.29 IN 0450 PM 06/25
...BRAZOS COUNTY...
BRYAN 0.53 IN 0445 PM 06/25
...CHAMBERS COUNTY...
LAKE CHARLOTTE 3.62 IN 0400 PM 06/25
ANAHUAC 2.51 IN 0412 PM 06/25
BAYTOWN 1.43 IN 0409 PM 06/25
...COLORADO COUNTY...
CUMMINS CREEK NEAR FRELSBURG 0.92 IN 0400 PM 06/25
7 W EAGLE LAKE 0.64 IN 0454 PM 06/25
WEIMAR 0.11 IN 0446 PM 06/25
...FORT BEND COUNTY...
MISSOURI CITY 2.55 IN 0441 PM 06/25
3 NW RICHMOND 2.22 IN 0455 PM 06/25
RICHMOND 1.64 IN 0431 PM 06/25
STAFFORD 1.38 IN 0442 PM 06/25
ROSENBERG 1.28 IN 0450 PM 06/25
KATY 1.20 IN 0446 PM 06/25
SUGAR LAND 1.20 IN 0447 PM 06/25
RICHMOND 1.13 IN 0450 PM 06/25
...GALVESTON COUNTY...
LA MARQUE 2.35 IN 0446 PM 06/25
1 SSE TEXAS CITY 2.19 IN 0450 PM 06/25
SANTA FE 2.08 IN 0450 PM 06/25
LEAGUE CITY 1.91 IN 0445 PM 06/25
LEAGUE CITY 1.57 IN 0445 PM 06/25
FRIENDSWOOD 1.19 IN 0454 PM 06/25
...HARRIS COUNTY...
TOMBALL 3.86 IN 0448 PM 06/25
D100 420 BRAYS BAYOU @ SOUTH 3.72 IN 0409 PM 06/25
DEER PARK 3.50 IN 0455 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 3.26 IN 0450 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 3.25 IN 0449 PM 06/25
L100 1210 LITTLE CYPRESS CRE 3.24 IN 0331 PM 06/25
1 E WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE 3.10 IN 0939 AM 06/25
CYPRESS 3.00 IN 0448 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 3.00 IN 0448 PM 06/25
K100 1175 CYPRESS CREEK @ US 2.92 IN 0327 PM 06/25
CYPRESS 2.91 IN 0447 PM 06/25
BAYTOWN 2.90 IN 0455 PM 06/25
2 NNW PASADENA 2.89 IN 0450 PM 06/25
4 W SPRING 2.80 IN 0454 PM 06/25
K100 1160 CYPRESS CREEK @ GR 2.76 IN 0323 PM 06/25
PASADENA 2.76 IN 0449 PM 06/25
W100 2220 BUFFALO BAYOU @ MI 2.68 IN 0404 PM 06/25
SOUTHSIDE PLACE 2.52 IN 0450 PM 06/25
2 SE HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE 2.51 IN 0450 PM 06/25
1 SE HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE 2.37 IN 0455 PM 06/25
6 WSW SPRING 2.31 IN 0455 PM 06/25
1 ESE HOUSTON 2.23 IN 0454 PM 06/25
P100 1670 GREENS BAYOU @ CUT 2.16 IN 0350 PM 06/25
P138 1695 @ ALDINE WESTFIELD 2.16 IN 0112 PM 06/25
2 NE SOUTH HOUSTON 2.09 IN 0455 PM 06/25
2 NNE SOUTH HOUSTON 2.01 IN 0455 PM 06/25
U106 2130 HORSEPEN CREEK @ T 2.00 IN 0222 PM 06/25
E100 550 WHITE OAK BAYOU @ L 1.97 IN 0348 PM 06/25
2 WNW SPRING 1.95 IN 0450 PM 06/25
SPRING 1.94 IN 0448 PM 06/25
2 NE PEARLAND 1.90 IN 0455 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.87 IN 0431 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.82 IN 0445 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.81 IN 0448 PM 06/25
SPRING 1.74 IN 0445 PM 06/25
4 NNW HOUSTON 1.74 IN 0455 PM 06/25
P100 1665 GREENS BAYOU @ BAM 1.72 IN 0243 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.71 IN 0443 PM 06/25
2 ESE HOUSTON 1.69 IN 0455 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.67 IN 0445 PM 06/25
U101 2190 SOUTH MAYDE CREEK 1.64 IN 0337 PM 06/25
W156 2280 RUMMEL CREEK @ BRI 1.60 IN 0222 PM 06/25
4 ESE HOUSTON 1.57 IN 0450 PM 06/25
W100 2210 BUFFALO BAYOU @ TU 1.52 IN 0349 PM 06/25
EL LAGO 1.46 IN 0446 PM 06/25
WEBSTER 1.44 IN 0445 PM 06/25
HUMBLE 1.41 IN 0440 PM 06/25
FRIENDSWOOD 1.40 IN 0445 PM 06/25
U100 2140 LANGHAM CREEK @ LO 1.40 IN 0306 PM 06/25
3 W BUNKER HILL VILLAGE 1.39 IN 0450 PM 06/25
KATY 1.34 IN 0446 PM 06/25
2 NE MEADOWS 1.31 IN 0455 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.26 IN 0445 PM 06/25
3 SW GALENA PARK 1.25 IN 0450 PM 06/25
CLOVERLEAF 1.7 W 1.25 IN 0600 AM 06/25
4 S ALDINE 1.22 IN 0455 PM 06/25
WEBSTER 1.19 IN 0450 PM 06/25
P100 1600 GREENS BAYOU @ MOU 1.00 IN 0437 PM 06/25
CROSBY 0.99 IN 0447 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 0.98 IN 0446 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 0.94 IN 0445 PM 06/25
T101 2020 MASON CREEK @ PRIN 0.88 IN 0157 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 0.86 IN 0446 PM 06/25
...JACKSON COUNTY...
FRANCITAS 1.09 IN 0447 PM 06/25
LOLITA 0.95 IN 0449 PM 06/25
PALACIOS 0.62 IN 0449 PM 06/25
GANADO 0.38 IN 0447 PM 06/25
...LIBERTY COUNTY...
Q100 1740 CEDAR BAYOU @ US 9 3.04 IN 0357 PM 06/25
DAYTON 2.18 IN 0422 PM 06/25
1 NNW LIBERTY 1.92 IN 0454 PM 06/25
...MADISON COUNTY...
MADISONVILLE 0.67 IN 0450 PM 06/25
...MATAGORDA COUNTY...
SARGENT 1 ENE 3.34 IN 0400 PM 06/25
MARKHAM 2.62 IN 0446 PM 06/25
...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
CONROE 3.03 IN 0444 PM 06/25
WILLIS 2.23 IN 0449 PM 06/25
SPRING 1.80 IN 0446 PM 06/25
PEACH CREEK 1.76 IN 1025 AM 06/25
MONTGOMERY 1.06 IN 0436 PM 06/25
WILLIS 0.87 IN 0445 PM 06/25
...TRINITY COUNTY...
TRINITY 5.1 NW 2.88 IN 0700 AM 06/25
...WALLER COUNTY...
KATY 1.76 IN 0448 PM 06/25
BROOKSHIRE 1.04 IN 0417 PM 06/25
...WHARTON COUNTY...
COLORADO RIVER NR GLEN FLORA 0.66 IN 0400 PM 06/25
EL CAMPO 2 NW 0.41 IN 0400 PM 06/25
OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURES. WE THANK ALL VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVERS
FOR THEIR DEDICATION. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.
$$Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
1-3” over the next 10 days according to the overnight Euro.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 260935
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Summary
- Another day of scattered convection as early day near coastal or
marine showers come ashore and likely evolve into afternoon
scattered inland thunderstorms. Slow movers could quickly put
down an 1 to 2+ inches that could lead to nuisance low lying
area and road flooding.
- The late work week will dry out and become more hot. Due to
relatively lower atmospheric moisture, afternoon heat indices
will not become too much of an issue.
- Late June into early July transitions back to wet with higher
rain chances each subsequent day leading up to the 4th of July.
While just out of this forecast package`s extended period, the
4th of July (next Thursday) is looking like a much drier day
than Tue/Wed as upper ridging asserts more of influence over
region during the actual holiday.
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
A height weakness channel between two upper ridges positioned on
either side of eastern Texas today will set the stage for a
continued unsettled weather pattern. Moisture-rich near 2.0 inch
pwat air in line with relatively lower convective temperatures
will allow any southwestern-based early day showers to blossom as
they work their way inland within southerly steering flow. Light
precipitation is trying to blossom over the Matagorda Bay region
and this activity is forecast to fester further inland...introducing
return showers and thunderstorms to the coastal counties through
the morning hours. Mild 25H diffluence around the northeastern
periphery of a near Baja-centered jet level anticyclonic flow
will increase western forecast area afternoon convective chances.
Generally, scattered interior TS SHRA activity will produce
anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to locally over 2 inches
where the strongest cells are slow to weaken and move out. Early
morning overcast may break up but expect a mostly overcast
afternoon...weak southeasterly breezes and periods of rain that
will keep many from exceeding the 90 F mark. The silver lining is
that heat indices will not be an issue today.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Ridging at all levels will take hold during this period and turn
the precipitation tap off. Other than some isolated heat-of-the-
day showers or a rouge storm forming in the vicinity of the sea
and/or bay breeze meso-boundaries, POPs will remain at or under
slight probs both Thursday and Friday. Higher probabilities for
inland, mainly western county overnight low overcast and patchy
fog development over more open expanses and bodies of water. The
upper ridge stationed over west Texas will own these two days
making these days the hottest days of this 7 day period. The only
saving grace will be that overall column moisture will be on the
downtick. Thus, mostly to partially sunny days will warm into the
lower to middle 90s with afternoon humidities falling into the
50%-tile and peak heat indices ranging between 96 and 101 F.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
This will be the most active period of this forecast. Late June
will end on a somewhat wet note with early July starting off even
wetter. As western ridging backs off to the northwest and anchors
itself over New Mexico, an inverted trough will begin to develop
across the western Gulf going into the weekend. Much higher pwat
air in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch realm will advect up from the southern
Gulf and, with an increasingly unstable regional air mass, periods
of early day near coastal showers transitioning to interior
clustering thunderstorms will occur over subsequent days from
Saturday through Wednesday. The main storm threat will be slow
moving storms producing high rainfall rates that will likely lead
to some regional flooding issues by Tuesday or Wednesday. Due to
the consistent run-to-run nature of the extended model solutions
signaling a lingering coastal trough/height weakness channel,
confidence is growing that the end of the period, or the days
leading up to the 4th of July, will become very wet. Overcast and
periodic rain will keep afternoon warmth in the 80s (60s within
afternoon rain) with warm and humid early mornings in the average
middle 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions across the region early this morning. May see some
intermittent MVFR cigs develop into the mid morning hours. Look
for sct shra/tsra to develop with some daytime heating and will
likely leave the vcsh/vcts wording about the same in the 12z set
of TAFs. Precip should taper off with the loss of heating this
evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate onshore winds are currently withing caution criteria so
will hoist those flags in the Gulf waters through mid morning.
Winds will gradually diminish the next couple days as surface
high pressure builds in from the east and the pressure gradient
relaxes. A surface trough will makes its way east to west across
the waters this weekend. Expect winds to back to the northeast in
advance along with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
as this occurs. As the trough passes, southeast winds will resume
as we head into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 72 91 71 93 / 40 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 89 75 92 73 94 / 40 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 81 90 80 91 / 40 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...47
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 260935
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Summary
- Another day of scattered convection as early day near coastal or
marine showers come ashore and likely evolve into afternoon
scattered inland thunderstorms. Slow movers could quickly put
down an 1 to 2+ inches that could lead to nuisance low lying
area and road flooding.
- The late work week will dry out and become more hot. Due to
relatively lower atmospheric moisture, afternoon heat indices
will not become too much of an issue.
- Late June into early July transitions back to wet with higher
rain chances each subsequent day leading up to the 4th of July.
While just out of this forecast package`s extended period, the
4th of July (next Thursday) is looking like a much drier day
than Tue/Wed as upper ridging asserts more of influence over
region during the actual holiday.
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
A height weakness channel between two upper ridges positioned on
either side of eastern Texas today will set the stage for a
continued unsettled weather pattern. Moisture-rich near 2.0 inch
pwat air in line with relatively lower convective temperatures
will allow any southwestern-based early day showers to blossom as
they work their way inland within southerly steering flow. Light
precipitation is trying to blossom over the Matagorda Bay region
and this activity is forecast to fester further inland...introducing
return showers and thunderstorms to the coastal counties through
the morning hours. Mild 25H diffluence around the northeastern
periphery of a near Baja-centered jet level anticyclonic flow
will increase western forecast area afternoon convective chances.
Generally, scattered interior TS SHRA activity will produce
anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to locally over 2 inches
where the strongest cells are slow to weaken and move out. Early
morning overcast may break up but expect a mostly overcast
afternoon...weak southeasterly breezes and periods of rain that
will keep many from exceeding the 90 F mark. The silver lining is
that heat indices will not be an issue today.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Ridging at all levels will take hold during this period and turn
the precipitation tap off. Other than some isolated heat-of-the-
day showers or a rouge storm forming in the vicinity of the sea
and/or bay breeze meso-boundaries, POPs will remain at or under
slight probs both Thursday and Friday. Higher probabilities for
inland, mainly western county overnight low overcast and patchy
fog development over more open expanses and bodies of water. The
upper ridge stationed over west Texas will own these two days
making these days the hottest days of this 7 day period. The only
saving grace will be that overall column moisture will be on the
downtick. Thus, mostly to partially sunny days will warm into the
lower to middle 90s with afternoon humidities falling into the
50%-tile and peak heat indices ranging between 96 and 101 F.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
This will be the most active period of this forecast. Late June
will end on a somewhat wet note with early July starting off even
wetter. As western ridging backs off to the northwest and anchors
itself over New Mexico, an inverted trough will begin to develop
across the western Gulf going into the weekend. Much higher pwat
air in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch realm will advect up from the southern
Gulf and, with an increasingly unstable regional air mass, periods
of early day near coastal showers transitioning to interior
clustering thunderstorms will occur over subsequent days from
Saturday through Wednesday. The main storm threat will be slow
moving storms producing high rainfall rates that will likely lead
to some regional flooding issues by Tuesday or Wednesday. Due to
the consistent run-to-run nature of the extended model solutions
signaling a lingering coastal trough/height weakness channel,
confidence is growing that the end of the period, or the days
leading up to the 4th of July, will become very wet. Overcast and
periodic rain will keep afternoon warmth in the 80s (60s within
afternoon rain) with warm and humid early mornings in the average
middle 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions across the region early this morning. May see some
intermittent MVFR cigs develop into the mid morning hours. Look
for sct shra/tsra to develop with some daytime heating and will
likely leave the vcsh/vcts wording about the same in the 12z set
of TAFs. Precip should taper off with the loss of heating this
evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate onshore winds are currently withing caution criteria so
will hoist those flags in the Gulf waters through mid morning.
Winds will gradually diminish the next couple days as surface
high pressure builds in from the east and the pressure gradient
relaxes. A surface trough will makes its way east to west across
the waters this weekend. Expect winds to back to the northeast in
advance along with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
as this occurs. As the trough passes, southeast winds will resume
as we head into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 72 91 71 93 / 40 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 89 75 92 73 94 / 40 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 81 90 80 91 / 40 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...47
MARINE...47
wicked looking storms popping up on the NW side
http://map.blitzortung.org/#7.87/29.95/-95.204
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif
http://map.blitzortung.org/#7.87/29.95/-95.204
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
128 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019
TXZ199-212-213-261915-
Waller TX-Inland Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
128 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...EASTERN
WALLER AND NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...
At 128 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jersey Village, moving north at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Tomball, Jersey Village, Pinehurst, Spring Branch North, The
Woodlands, Spring Branch West, Addicks Park Ten, Greater Greenspoint,
northwestern Northside / Northline, Magnolia, Stagecoach, Spring
Branch Central, Central Northwest, Langwood, Fairbanks / Northwest
Crossing, Willowbrook, Hidden Valley, Acres Home, Independence
Heights and Hooks Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Question. What is causing the significant rain event off the coast in the latest 7 day QPF? Boundary? Tropical system? Just curious.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Inverted trough
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
rumbling again, I think I may have watered maybe 3 times this year, I like it
https://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/HGX_loop.gif
http://map.blitzortung.org/#6.94/29.975/-95.128
https://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/HGX_loop.gif
http://map.blitzortung.org/#6.94/29.975/-95.128
snippet from https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will aid in streaming moisture
northward out of the Western Gulf of Mexico that will become tropical moisture overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday a long with upper-level energy over the Lower Rio Grande Valley will aid in
producing heavy rain over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Ah. Gotcha. Thank you!!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 271020
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019
.DISCUSSION...
...A western county Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 9 AM...
Summary
- Drier next couple of days with slightly above normal heat. Lower
level humidity will mix out enough during peak heating to
regulate early to mid afternoon heat indices to the upper 90s to
lower 100s.
- Decent weekend weather with higher rain chances on Sunday.
Partly cloudy and weak breezes as high pressure retains control
of this late June regional weather pattern.
- July starts off tropical...wet with the threat for strong
weather both Tuesday and Wednesday. The main hazard threats
will be flooding rain on Tuesday with a downburst wind threat
becoming more dominant Wednesday.
- The 4th of July forecast calls for very `summer-like`
conditions...slight to low end afternoon rain chances with lower
90 F heat and higher max heat indices in the 103 to 106 F range.
Weather is not expected to be a factor during evening
pyrotechnic shows.
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...
...A western county Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 9 AM
this morning...
Sabine River Valley surface high pressure with western Texas-
centered upper ridging will control the weather pattern over the
next couple of days. Suppression will reign supreme but there
will still be slight chances for random pop up air mass warmth of
the day showers and storms. Whether this activity be early day
frictional near coastal showers to further interior local breeze-
focused cells, this activity will be isolated in nature. A
weather element that may return over the next couple of mornings
will be fog. As overnight ambient temperatures fall to within a
degree or two of their respective dew points, areawide patchy fog
will begin to form (sans the coast and metro areas). Thicker fog
development may occur north and west of the city over more rural
wind-sheltered open expanse areas or in the vicinity of bodies of
water. Partially cloudy mornings in the mean middle 70s at sunrise
with afternoons warming into the lower to middle 90s. Ridging at
all levels will ensure that these next couple of afternoons will
be the warmest of this 7 day period commencing this morning. Coastal
or second tier county dew points that do not mix out and remain
in the middle 70s will experience the highest maximum heat indices,
ranging between 100 to 105 F during the early to mid afternoon
hours.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...
Upper ridging will begin to back off to the west and allow a
weakness channel, or inverted trough, to evolve across the
western Gulf Saturday. A gradual western movement of this trough
will place the region along with its more convergent and
traditionally more wet eastern side by early Sunday. A surge of
higher southern Gulf moisture will travel north parallel to the
trough axis thus increasing regional pwats values from near 1.4
inches on Friday to around 1.8 inches Sunday morning. A much more
tropical air mass overcoming the area to end the month will
increase subsequent day rain chances. Saturday`s slight to low end
shower and storm chances will increase in areal coverage on
Sunday as moisture values lift and convective temperatures lower.
Afternoon`s will not be as oppressively hot, but follow climate
standards with many communities topping out around 90 F by 2 or 3
PM each partially cloudy. Days will become increasingly more
humid in closing out June.
July will begin on a more wet note as Monday through Wednesday`s
weather will become mostly cloudy with frequent rain and
thunderstorm activity. Due to a weaker vertical wind field (per
the region being under the influence of weak ridging), the main
storm mode will be that of slow-moving storm clusters that will
likely produce high enough short duration rainfall rates to
initiate flooding. The highest rainfall will occur on Tuesday and
Wednesday as a plus 2 inch pwat air mass streams inland into a
very unstable air mass. While Tuesday is pegged as the day of
higher areawide rainfall, better thermodynamics on Wednesday
(possibly due to clearer skies) means that Tuesday`s rain event
could transition to a more storm (wind and rain) episode Wednesday.
Soundings evolve from saturated columns Tuesday to inverted-V
profiles on Wednesday.
4th of July weather will be drier although a lingering general
height weakness over the state will drive slight afternoon chances
for those typical summer season isolated or widely scattered
showers and storms. Wouldn`t be too concerned for a 4th wash out
but, if planning any outdoor activities, having a quick nearby
indoor Plan B is wise. While the main afternoon storm threats will
be frequent lightning and brief intense rainfall leading to
street flooding, any activity should wane with loss of heating.
The majority of southeast Texas will enjoy their firework shows
without the threat of inclement weather. 31
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will continue its slow trek westward through
Friday bringing 10 to 15 mph southeasterly winds. Winds then
decrease and become variable over the weekend as the aforementioned
high sits over southeast Texas. There will be an upper level trough
retrograding westward that may trigger isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible
near any storms that do form. Onshore flow returns for the start of
the work week as high pressure begins to rebuild over the Gulf of
Mexico. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
Wide ranging mix of ceilings and fog across the area this
morning...ranging from LIFR to VFR. In general, less favorable
flying conditions are currently situated northwest of the Highway
59/69 corridor. Look for gradually improving conditions as we head
into the mid-late morning hours as things trend toward VFR. Isolated
to scattered showers and tstms can be expected once again with
daytime heating (convective temps ~87). Probably won`t be as much
coverage as yesterday, and vcsh/vcts placeholders should be
sufficient until if & when amendments might be necessary as trends
are established. No organized convection is anticipated, but will
need to keep an eye on any stronger cells that manage to develop
as fcst soundings indicate an inverted-v signature indicating the
possibility of some stronger winds. 47
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 72 92 72 91 / 20 10 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 93 74 95 74 92 / 20 10 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 91 80 90 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
MARINE...11
AVIATION...47
FXUS64 KHGX 271020
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019
.DISCUSSION...
...A western county Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 9 AM...
Summary
- Drier next couple of days with slightly above normal heat. Lower
level humidity will mix out enough during peak heating to
regulate early to mid afternoon heat indices to the upper 90s to
lower 100s.
- Decent weekend weather with higher rain chances on Sunday.
Partly cloudy and weak breezes as high pressure retains control
of this late June regional weather pattern.
- July starts off tropical...wet with the threat for strong
weather both Tuesday and Wednesday. The main hazard threats
will be flooding rain on Tuesday with a downburst wind threat
becoming more dominant Wednesday.
- The 4th of July forecast calls for very `summer-like`
conditions...slight to low end afternoon rain chances with lower
90 F heat and higher max heat indices in the 103 to 106 F range.
Weather is not expected to be a factor during evening
pyrotechnic shows.
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...
...A western county Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 9 AM
this morning...
Sabine River Valley surface high pressure with western Texas-
centered upper ridging will control the weather pattern over the
next couple of days. Suppression will reign supreme but there
will still be slight chances for random pop up air mass warmth of
the day showers and storms. Whether this activity be early day
frictional near coastal showers to further interior local breeze-
focused cells, this activity will be isolated in nature. A
weather element that may return over the next couple of mornings
will be fog. As overnight ambient temperatures fall to within a
degree or two of their respective dew points, areawide patchy fog
will begin to form (sans the coast and metro areas). Thicker fog
development may occur north and west of the city over more rural
wind-sheltered open expanse areas or in the vicinity of bodies of
water. Partially cloudy mornings in the mean middle 70s at sunrise
with afternoons warming into the lower to middle 90s. Ridging at
all levels will ensure that these next couple of afternoons will
be the warmest of this 7 day period commencing this morning. Coastal
or second tier county dew points that do not mix out and remain
in the middle 70s will experience the highest maximum heat indices,
ranging between 100 to 105 F during the early to mid afternoon
hours.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...
Upper ridging will begin to back off to the west and allow a
weakness channel, or inverted trough, to evolve across the
western Gulf Saturday. A gradual western movement of this trough
will place the region along with its more convergent and
traditionally more wet eastern side by early Sunday. A surge of
higher southern Gulf moisture will travel north parallel to the
trough axis thus increasing regional pwats values from near 1.4
inches on Friday to around 1.8 inches Sunday morning. A much more
tropical air mass overcoming the area to end the month will
increase subsequent day rain chances. Saturday`s slight to low end
shower and storm chances will increase in areal coverage on
Sunday as moisture values lift and convective temperatures lower.
Afternoon`s will not be as oppressively hot, but follow climate
standards with many communities topping out around 90 F by 2 or 3
PM each partially cloudy. Days will become increasingly more
humid in closing out June.
July will begin on a more wet note as Monday through Wednesday`s
weather will become mostly cloudy with frequent rain and
thunderstorm activity. Due to a weaker vertical wind field (per
the region being under the influence of weak ridging), the main
storm mode will be that of slow-moving storm clusters that will
likely produce high enough short duration rainfall rates to
initiate flooding. The highest rainfall will occur on Tuesday and
Wednesday as a plus 2 inch pwat air mass streams inland into a
very unstable air mass. While Tuesday is pegged as the day of
higher areawide rainfall, better thermodynamics on Wednesday
(possibly due to clearer skies) means that Tuesday`s rain event
could transition to a more storm (wind and rain) episode Wednesday.
Soundings evolve from saturated columns Tuesday to inverted-V
profiles on Wednesday.
4th of July weather will be drier although a lingering general
height weakness over the state will drive slight afternoon chances
for those typical summer season isolated or widely scattered
showers and storms. Wouldn`t be too concerned for a 4th wash out
but, if planning any outdoor activities, having a quick nearby
indoor Plan B is wise. While the main afternoon storm threats will
be frequent lightning and brief intense rainfall leading to
street flooding, any activity should wane with loss of heating.
The majority of southeast Texas will enjoy their firework shows
without the threat of inclement weather. 31
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will continue its slow trek westward through
Friday bringing 10 to 15 mph southeasterly winds. Winds then
decrease and become variable over the weekend as the aforementioned
high sits over southeast Texas. There will be an upper level trough
retrograding westward that may trigger isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible
near any storms that do form. Onshore flow returns for the start of
the work week as high pressure begins to rebuild over the Gulf of
Mexico. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
Wide ranging mix of ceilings and fog across the area this
morning...ranging from LIFR to VFR. In general, less favorable
flying conditions are currently situated northwest of the Highway
59/69 corridor. Look for gradually improving conditions as we head
into the mid-late morning hours as things trend toward VFR. Isolated
to scattered showers and tstms can be expected once again with
daytime heating (convective temps ~87). Probably won`t be as much
coverage as yesterday, and vcsh/vcts placeholders should be
sufficient until if & when amendments might be necessary as trends
are established. No organized convection is anticipated, but will
need to keep an eye on any stronger cells that manage to develop
as fcst soundings indicate an inverted-v signature indicating the
possibility of some stronger winds. 47
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 72 92 72 91 / 20 10 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 93 74 95 74 92 / 20 10 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 91 80 90 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
MARINE...11
AVIATION...47
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 271742
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA developing across the northern
half of the CWA are expected to persist in and around
KCXO/KUTS/KIAH this afternoon through this evening. Periods of
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and intense lightning can be expected
with this activity. Along the coastal regions, mainly VFR
conditions expected. Based on the latest sounding data and SREF
model, areas of patchy to dense fog is forecast to develop
overnight for most of the local area, less along the coastal
region. This could result in periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis from
around 09-15Z. Winds are expected to continue light and variable
for most TAF sites through the end of the forecast period. 24
FXUS64 KHGX 271742
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA developing across the northern
half of the CWA are expected to persist in and around
KCXO/KUTS/KIAH this afternoon through this evening. Periods of
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and intense lightning can be expected
with this activity. Along the coastal regions, mainly VFR
conditions expected. Based on the latest sounding data and SREF
model, areas of patchy to dense fog is forecast to develop
overnight for most of the local area, less along the coastal
region. This could result in periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis from
around 09-15Z. Winds are expected to continue light and variable
for most TAF sites through the end of the forecast period. 24
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Significant Weather Advisory
Weather Updated: Jun 27 2:33PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris, Texas
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3PM CDT THU ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN AUSTIN...CENTRAL WALLER AND WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT... AT 233 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PATTISON, OR 8 MILES NORTH OF BROOKSHIRE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KATY, HEMPSTEAD, PRAIRIE VIEW, BROOKSHIRE, WALLER, PINE ISLAND, SAN FELIPE, PATTISON AND MONAVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY, SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. &&
SEE LIVE RADAR
Weather Updated: Jun 27 2:33PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris, Texas
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3PM CDT THU ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN AUSTIN...CENTRAL WALLER AND WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT... AT 233 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PATTISON, OR 8 MILES NORTH OF BROOKSHIRE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KATY, HEMPSTEAD, PRAIRIE VIEW, BROOKSHIRE, WALLER, PINE ISLAND, SAN FELIPE, PATTISON AND MONAVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY, SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. &&
SEE LIVE RADAR