September 2019 - Warm End of September

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning Hurricane Dorian Update from Jeff:

Dorian impacting the Carolinas as a major hurricane

Discussion:
Dorian is moving toward the SC and NC coasts this morning being tracked by coastal radars and USAF missions. The very large eye of Dorian (50 miles in dimeter) is currently located 70 miles SSE of Charleston, SC and is moving toward the NNE at 8mph. Maximum sustained winds are 115mph making Dorian a category 3 hurricane. Dorian has become a very large storm with tropical storm force winds extending outward 195 miles from the center. The overall cloud pattern of the hurricane remains fairly well developed, but with more and more of the circulation interacting with the US SE coast, Dorian is starting to show some signs of degradation on its NW side. NOAA buoy 41004, 50 miles SE of Charleston is currently gusting to 85mph with 23 foot seas.

Track:
Dorian is moving through a break in the sub-tropical ridge over the eastern US and a turn toward the NE is expected over the next 24 hours and then acceleration as Dorian is captured by a trough over New England. On this track Dorian will likely move very close it not make landfall on the NC coast tonight into Friday and then move rapidly toward the Canadian maritime areas. Given the latest track guidance and the expansion of the tropical storm force winds field…this requires the issuance of a tropical storm watch of portions of southern New England.

Intensity:
Dorian has gained a little intensity overnight as the hurricane has been moving along the Gulf Stream and is within a fairly light wind shear environment. Dorian’s biggest battle is with its massive size that is not allowing a tight inner core to re-develop and instead spreading the energy out over a very large area. While the winds are around 115mph, the size of the wind field makes Dorian a very dangerous hurricane as any one location would experience hours and hours of adverse conditions and these large systems result in significant storm surge flooding (think Ike). Charleston recently reported a wind gust to 68mph. Wind shear will likely begin to increase from the SW over the next 24 hours and slow but gradual weakening of the hurricane is likely as it moves across eastern NC and then across the western Atlantic.

Impacts:
Significant storm surge flooding is likely along the SC and NC coast today. In fact the current water level forecast for Charleston Harbor if verified would place Dorian as the second highest tidal reading between Hugo and Irma. Large portions of the SC low country will experience storm surge flooding today into Friday as well as portions of the NC coast. TS to near hurricane force winds will batter the coastal areas for many hours as the large wind field of Dorian progresses NE at around 10mph.

[BlueJay]

Dorian's track is really something else.

[unome]

good news in a Tweet from Jim Edds earlier this morning

https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/statu ... 6837350401

Jim Edds
‏Verified account @ExtremeStorms

In the Chopper with John Oldner ! Rescued! So happy to be coming back! Thanks everyone!

[redneckweather]

So any guesses on when the first decent front will roll through? Holy $×</ it is hot!

[unome]

So any guesses on when the first decent front will roll through? Holy $×</ it is hot!

can't be soon enough for me

Screenshot_2019-09-05 7-Day Forecast for Cypress - Copy.png

[Cpv17]

I really don’t see much hope on the horizon for cooler temps or much rain

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning tropical weather briefing from Jeff:

Dorian:
Hurricane Dorian battering the outer banks of NC this morning with frequent wind gust in the 60-80mph range. The large eye of Dorian is located south miles WSW of Cape Hatteras moving toward the NE at 14mph. Recent wind gusts of 69mph at Ocracoke, NC and 66mph at Cape Hatteras along with e 96mph wind gust overnight near Cape Fear.

Dorian has begun to accelerate toward the NE and this motion will continue with an increase in forward speed and Dorian will be off the NC outer banks by late this afternoon. Since the wind field remains large, tropical storm conditions will likely impact portions of Cape Cod on Saturday. Dorian will likely become extra tropical over the weekend as it moves across the Canadian Maritimes as a powerful system.

The name Dorian will almost certainly be retired from the Atlantic basin naming lists given the level of disaster it caused in the Bahamas. Over 13,000 structures were completely destroyed on the islands of Great Abaco and Grand Bahama with at least 30 fatalities.

94L:
A tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa and is over/near the Cabo Verde Islands this morning producing sporadic showers and thunderstorms. There appears to be an ill defined low pressure system attached to a surface trough with this wave which is moving westward. While near term conditions are generally unfavorable for development, longer term conditions across the mean development region of the Atlantic appear to become more favorable for the formation of a tropical system. Overall model support is fairly low with the exception of some of the ECWMF ensemble members. The NHC gives this wave a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days.

[tireman4]

Well, this is where we call on our long range expert ( Srain) to give us some good news about the next front. I will say, as Dan Meador used to preach..once ( normally) we get that first front through here, the others follow...now that being said, if we look climatologically, it is usually around the end of September.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_sep

[tireman4]

419
FXUS64 KHGX 060937
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
437 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019

.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday]...
Upper ridging will dominate area wx thru the weekend with hot and
dry wx prevailing. Dewpoints are expected to mix out so heat
indices should remain below advisory criteria. Some long term
record highs are in jeopardy of falling for the metro sites and
Galveston...more probable today & Sat. Heights slightly fall
Sunday and winds become more southerly which should allow us to
knock a degree or two off fcst highs. Here`s the record highs thru
the weekend:

CLL: Fri 104/1913, Sat 102/1912, Sun 101/1912
IAH: Fri 99/1909, Sat 98/1963, Sun 100/1907
HOU: Fri 97/1963, Sat 98/1963, Sun 97/1999
GLS: Fri 94/1912, Sat 94/1876, Sun 96/1995

47

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Heights will continue a slow downward trend as a diffuse mid
level inverted trof/weakness/disturbance currently near the tip of
the Yucatan makes a slow nw trek toward Tx early next week.
Closer to the surface, a more pronounced onshore flow should
become established. Combination of the above should allow for llvl
moisture to gradually increase and high temps to moderate back
down into the low-mid 90s. Dependent on daily moisture
fluctuations, isolated to scattered diurnally driven precip can be
expected. 47

&&

.MARINE...
The light/variable/offshore flow (courtesy of the weak pressure grad-
ient over the area) will become more S/SE late today as surface high
pressure begins to build across the N/NW Gulf. The mostly light S/SE
winds will prevail through the weekend...strengthening slightly late
Sun/Mon as a weak shortwave/deeper moisture approaches the region.
We will also likely see an increase of showers/thunderstorms for the
start of the week. Generally light/moderate SE flow is expected next
week. 41

&&

.AVIATION [12z Issuance]...
VFR conditions should prevail thru the period. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 75 100 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 99 74 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 94 82 93 81 93 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[cperk]

Well, this is where we call on our long range expert ( Srain) to give us some good news about the next front. I will say, as Dan Meador used to preach..once ( normally) we get that first front through here, the others follow...now that being said, if we look climatologically, it is usually around the end of September.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_sep

Please srain Please.

[sau27]

I hate to be "that guy" but I am watching 94L. It is way out there, near the Cabo Verde islands but there is modest support for this tracking west across the Atlantic instead of getting scooped up and recurving. Something to watch.

[Texaspirate11]

The stories out of the Bahamas are horrific.
they remind me of those that I have read about in the 1900 Storm
People, in the middle of the night, clinging on to anything as they winds thrash them about
I feel so badly for those that are suffering and have lost so much.

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 061741
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1241 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF issuance]...

MVFR/IFR cigs that briefly developed this morning have now
subsided, and conditions through the remainder of the day are
expected to remain within VFR thresholds. S/SE winds should stay
in the 5 to 10 knot range today, becoming light and variable
overnight before shifting more to the S/SW by tomorrow afternoon.
Model soundings and SREF probabilistic guidance suggest the
possibility of some areas fog developing from approximately 10Z
to 14Z tomorrow morning around CLL, CXO, SGR, and LBX. This may
also be accompanied by some brief sub-VFR cigs, although currently
have included FEW decks in TAFs due to lower confidence.

Cady

[unome]

Chris Hollis of Tropical Atlantic is brilliant, and just a genuine, good person on top of that - he worked 24/7 on this Bahamas radar loop for a while & one of his modest, 1st comments on it were "I modified a couple lines of code"

I recommend you watch his youtube video at 1080p: https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/ ... 0500380673

Tropical Atlantic
‏ @TropicalATL
7h7 hours ago

A higher quality radar loop of #Dorian's historic, destructive & deadly path through the Bahamas. Radar loop from Aug. 31st at 4:30am AST through Sep. 4th at 4:00pm AST. Imagery mirrored from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology. Background from @Esri. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH6eIqAdTMw …

[cperk]

The stories out of the Bahamas are horrific.
they remind me of those that I have read about in the 1900 Storm
People, in the middle of the night, clinging on to anything as they winds thrash them about
I feel so badly for those that are suffering and have lost so much.

Heart breaking.

[cperk]

Chris Hollis of Tropical Atlantic is brilliant, and just a genuine, good person on top of that - he worked 24/7 on this Bahamas radar loop for a while & one of his modest, 1st comments on it were "I modified a couple lines of code"

I recommend you watch his youtube video at 1080p: https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/ ... 0500380673

Tropical Atlantic
‏ @TropicalATL
7h7 hours ago

A higher quality radar loop of #Dorian's historic, destructive & deadly path through the Bahamas. Radar loop from Aug. 31st at 4:30am AST through Sep. 4th at 4:00pm AST. Imagery mirrored from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology. Background from @Esri. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH6eIqAdTMw …

Geez.

[srainhoutx]

I see no strong fronts on the horizon and neither does the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center. WxTwitter may have a different outlook...

[BlueJay]

Chris Hollis of Tropical Atlantic is brilliant, and just a genuine, good person on top of that - he worked 24/7 on this Bahamas radar loop for a while & one of his modest, 1st comments on it were "I modified a couple lines of code"

I recommend you watch his youtube video at 1080p: https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/ ... 0500380673

Tropical Atlantic
‏ @TropicalATL
7h7 hours ago

A higher quality radar loop of #Dorian's historic, destructive & deadly path through the Bahamas. Radar loop from Aug. 31st at 4:30am AST through Sep. 4th at 4:00pm AST. Imagery mirrored from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology. Background from @Esri. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH6eIqAdTMw …

Geez.

There are no words that work here. Texaspirate and cperk are right-it is heartbreaking.

Thanks for sharing unome.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Dorian death toll in Bahamas rises to 43: media
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-stor ... SKCN1VS037

The death toll is likely to rise.

[Texaspirate11]

Thanks unome.
A lesson when a major storm comes try to evacuate....God bless these souls