September 2019 - Warm End of September

[jasons2k]

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/stat ... 5972338689

Josh has been found!

[srainhoutx]

Verified account @iCyclone


Following Following @iCyclone

Yep, I’m alive. Made it to Nassau. #Hurricane #DORIAN: By far the most intense cyclone I’ve witnessed in 28 years of chasing. Thought I was playing it safe by riding it out in a solid-concrete school on a hill in Marsh Harbour. Thought wrong.

Winds pounded the building with the force of a thousand sledgehammers. Crept out during eye to find school mostly destroyed, cars in parking lot thrown around & mutilated. Barometer said 913.4 mb.

Josh Morgerman‏Verified account @iCyclone · 2m2 minutes ago

Frantically piled into few functioning cars (one of them mine) & relocated to government complex before backside struck. Building filled with terrorized refugees, many who had swam to safety or abandoned collapsed houses. The calm eye saved lives—gave victims chance to relocate.

Whole neighborhoods were swept by mighty surge higher than anything in memory. Areas above water had catastrophic wind damage. Many deaths reported from drowning, flying debris, & collapsing houses. Medical clinic overwhelmed. An absolute catastrophe. SEND HELP TO ABACO ISLANDS.





3:09 PM - 3 Sep 2019

[Rip76]

That’s awesome.

[Texaspirate11]

Thank God!

[ccbluewater]

Awesome! He has one heck of a story to tell!

[unome]

very good news, indeed - anyone hear how Jim Edds is ?

[Portastorm]

Like many I’ve been worried sick about Josh. I’m so happy to hear that he is okay. A piece of good news in what can only be described as a heap of castrophe.

[Katdaddy]

Excellent news and glad Josh is ok. Yep, he has an epic story tell!

[tireman4]

Thank goodness he is ok. What a trooper!

[davidiowx]

Wow, happy to hear Josh is ok. I’ve been a fan of his for quite some time and looking forward to seeing Hurricane Man in the next two weeks. I can’t imagine what he’s witnessed and his story will be one for the ages. Prayers to all that have had their lives destroyed by this storm. It’s certainly one for the history books.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning Fernand Update from Jeff:

Fernand nearing landfall in MX

Discussion:
The overall cloud pattern and radar presentation of Fernand has degraded overnight with much of the deep convection having moved inland over N MX and S TX and the low level center focusing on the eastern edge of the deep convection near the center. Fernand has moved little faster than expected and the center will likely move inland later this morning. Gusty winds in squalls and heavy rainfall is spread inland across S TX today.

Track:
Fernand is moving toward the west slowly this moving and with high pressure building north of the tropical storm over TX this westward motion will continue with a landfall on the Mexican coast later this morning. After landfall the remains of the system will move WNW into northern Mexico.

Intensity:
Easterly shear has prevent Fernand from any intensification overnight and most of the showers and thunderstorm activity is focused well W and NW of the center. Fernand is out of time for any additional intensification and the system will cross the coast later this morning. Gusty winds of 40-50mph in squalls will be possible along the lower TX coast today especially along South Padre Island.

After landfall Fernand will weaken and dissipate rather quickly although squalls will continue to move westward along portions of the Rio Grande into Thursday.

[srainhoutx]

The Tropical Atlantic looks to continue the current burst of activity for a while...

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041024
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
507 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...

.Summary...

- Tropical Storm Fernand is currently moving onshore over the
northeastern Mexico coast this morning.

- TS Fernand will have minimal impacts on the region. Scattered
(primarily western Gulf) scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity from the far outer bands of a dissipating Fernand.
Some of this precipitation may come onshore across the Matagorda
Bay area.

- Very hot start to September. Upper ridging will envelop the
state and, with a resident dry air mass, weekly early day
temperatures will quickly soar into the 90s. Many locations will
achieve the 100 F degree (or greater) mark over multiple days.

Near Term (Today)...

Isolated showers out over our western Gulf waters are traveling
due westward into CRP`s area. The far outer bands of TS Fernand
will be rotating in from the Gulf, introducing periodic
precipitation to the Matagorda Bay area through the early
afternoon hours. As of 4 AM, a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for the northeastern Mexico coast (from the mouth of the
Rio Grande River to Puerto Altamira) as Fernand`s sustained winds
are 50 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb. Fernand has a
6 mph westward movement onto the Tamaulipas Province coastline over
the next few hours. As Fernand encounters the higher terrain, it is
expected to quickly dissipate through early tomorrow morning.

A 594 dam upper ridge centered over the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles will expand southeastward across the region.
Subsidence will create mainly clear skies while a drier resident
air mass will allow daytime temperatures to once again quickly
rise into the areawide 90s by 10 or 11 AM. This relatively drier
(forecast 1.2 to 1.4 inch pwat) air mass will be dry enough to
warm the region into the upper 90s to lower 100s by 3 or 4 PM.
Very dry mid to upper layer air mix out to the surface will
translate to afternoon dew points in the lower to middle 60s
within interior counties, lower 70s near the coast. This will
produce maximum heat indices in the 100 to 105 F range. Thus, Heat
Advisories are not anticipated.

Short Term (Tonight through Thursday)...

What is left of TS Fernand will be rapidly deteriorating over the
Sierra Madre through the early Thursday morning hours. Mid to
upper level subsidence will keep the burners on through mid week
and shut off any precipitation chances. 850 mb temperatures will
remain in the lower 20s deg C. Taking the mid level parcel from
the base of a near 700 mb inversion downward dry adiabatically
gives you 21Z surface interior surface temperature in the 100 to
103 F range over the next several days. Slightly more moisture
and maybe some cloud cover may keep those in the southern half of
the CWA in the upper 90s but, either way you slice it, the heat is
on. There is no escaping to the coast from the heat as, with
surface high pressure taming any significant onshore flow, the
barrier island beaches will likely top out in the middle 90s. Lower
humidities in the 20s and 30s (percentile) will regulate heat
indices to a few degrees above maximum temperatures, or in the 103
to 106 F range. While Heat Advisories will likely not be required,
it is not overkill to remind everyone to practice heat safety as we
blaze through this first week of September.

Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...

Your air conditioner will be working OT as the main theme of this
period will be that of heat. Subsequent days of ~ 100 F degree
afternoons and, other than an isolated air mass pop up shower or
storm, no welcome rain will arrive until maybe Monday. Maximum
temperature records will be safe until Friday. A 99 F maxT record in
Houston will likely be tied or broken (101 F is forecast) on Friday.
Weekend maximum temperature records in the upper 90s to around 102 F
will either be tied or broken. So, a September heat wave that may
take current D0 drought (Abnormally Dry) values to possible D1
(Moderate) values by this time next week.

The ridge begins to weaken just enough early next week, with a
higher surge of moisture off the western Gulf, to re-introduce
higher daytime rain chances. 30 (maybe 40?) PoPs for the western
CWA both Monday and Tuesday as weak ripples travel up between a
developing Rocky Mountain trough and a weakening Gulf-centered
590-ish ridge. The period ends with some hope of more widespread
rain brought on by this passing shortwave trough into the Central
Plains/Upper Midwest. Southern Plains convection may spit out enough
outflow into eastern Texas to assist in initiating more areal wide
convection Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...
Think any far outer bands associated with TS Fernand will remain
mainly south of most southeast Tx TAF sites. VFR conditions should
prevail thru the period. 47

&&

.Marine...
Moderate east winds and elevated seas will support SCEC conditions
across most of the upper Tx coastal waters today...with the
exception of the Galveston Bay area and adjacent nearshore waters
which will be slightly below criteria. Will monitor obs for a while,
but cannot rule out an upgrade to advisory conditions west of
Freeport where winds/seas should be higher. Tides are running about
1-1.5 feet above normal, but coastal flood threat should be fairly
minimal. A high rip current risk remains in place into mid-morning.
Surfcams aren`t overly impressive attm, so will let the day shift
coordinate w/ beach patrol and decide whether we can let that
expire or extend. Winds and seas begin diminishing tomorrow as TS
Fernand makes its way inland over northeast Mexico. Surface high
pressure will become established over the nw Gulf and meander
about the area thru the weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 74 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 99 76 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 94 81 94 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Short/Long...31
Aviation/Marine...47

[DoctorMu]

IN SUMMARY:

High

and

Dry

for the foreseeable future,

[tireman4]

What DoctorMu said...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041736
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019

.AVIATION...
Outer bands associated with now inland TS Fernand are still expected
to remain well to the south of our area`s TAF sites. VFR conditions
should prevail thru the period with east winds around 10 knots (and
occasionally gusty) this afternoon decreasing to 5 knots or less after
sunset. Light southeast winds expected to eventually develop during
the day tomorrow. 42
&&

[jasons2k]

IN SUMMARY:

High

and

Dry

for the foreseeable future,

Pretty much. See y’all in a week. I don’t think y’all need to hear me complain every day about the heat and the drought. It’s just miserable...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

IN SUMMARY:

High

and

Dry

for the foreseeable future,

Pretty much. See y’all in a week. I don’t think y’all need to hear me complain every day about the heat and the drought. It’s just miserable...

I don’t want to see anyone wish for Summer again

I’m 2 hours out from Charleston. About to go do a little soirée with some Tropics!

[Andrew]

IN SUMMARY:

High

and

Dry

for the foreseeable future,

Pretty much. See y’all in a week. I don’t think y’all need to hear me complain every day about the heat and the drought. It’s just miserable...

I don’t want to see anyone wish for Summer again

I’m 2 hours out from Charleston. About to go do a little soirée with some Tropics!

Summers are great! Models are hinting at stronger return flow late next week which would increase rain chances some. As of right now, I don't see much coming from the north as upper-level pattern remains pretty zonal. Tropics look calm overall too after we get through Dorian.

[Pas_Bon]

IN SUMMARY:

High

and

Dry

for the foreseeable future,

Pretty much. See y’all in a week. I don’t think y’all need to hear me complain every day about the heat and the drought. It’s just miserable...

I don’t want to see anyone wish for Summer again

I’m 2 hours out from Charleston. About to go do a little soirée with some Tropics!

Stay safe and Geaux Tigers!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051009
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
509 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...

.Summary...

- The far outer precipitation bands of what was once TS Fernand
will clip our far western waters and possibly Matagorda Bay and
surrounding counties.

- Hot, Hot, Hot. Upper ridging will envelop the state and, with
relatively drier air, the provided suppression will heat late
week days up into the upper 90s to record level lower 100s.

- The next day of at least slight rain chances will not be until
Monday or Tuesday. High pressure positioning itself over the
eastern Gulf/Florida will allow a height weakness channel to
develop over coastal Texas. Western Gulf disturbances moving
northward into relatively more moist air may be enough to
produce late period scattered daytime -TSRA over the western
and southern thirds of the forecast area.

.Near Term (Today and Tonight)...

Other than some precipitation bands rotating westward over our
far western waters and possibly into the Matagorda Bay region, the
region will remain dry for yet another day. Central Rocky Mountain
upper ridging will engulf the Southern Plains and this subsidence
will continue this record heat wave. Afternoon temperatures will
soar back up to around 100 F once again today. Please see the
Climate section for the near and short term forecast maximum
temperatures and these site`s associated maxT records.

.Short Term (Friday through Saturday)...

Burners remain on with the hottest days occurring during this
period (Today through Saturday). Record maximum temperature
records will likely be tied or broken in Houston (the city`s
99 F maxT record on Friday is a 110 year old record!) Saturday`s
maxT record of 94 F in Galveston has been held for a whooping 143
years! Nil rain chances with drier air mixing down during the
heat of the day and lowering dew points into the upper 50s (way up
north) to the lower to middle 60s around the city. This equates
to minimum %RHs in the mid 20s to lower 30s and will keep
afternoon heat indices between 100 to 105 F.

.Long Term (Sunday through Thursday morning)...

A weakness, or inverted trough feature, begins to take shape
across the western Gulf early next week. As upper ridging shifts
to the east and an evolving Rocky Mountain shortwave trough passes
northeastward atop this ridge on Monday, a series of Gulf-based
disturbances may ride northward within 7H steering flow and into
a more moist (greater than 1.6 inch pwat) regional air mass. This
will likely initiate the first real chance for primarily western
and southern CWA scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms each
subsequent day from Monday through early Wednesday evening. More
cloud cover and established onshore flow, in tandem with possibly
more afternoon precipitation, will only subtly regulate afternoon
heat by just a few degrees...average maximum temperatures will
still be in the middle to upper 90s.

&&

.Climate...

Here are the forecast maximum temperatures and records for today
through Saturday:

Forecast maxT Record maxT (year)

CLL

Today 101 111 (2000)
Tomorrow 103 104 (1913)
Saturday 103 102 (1963)

IAH

Today 101 108 (2000)
Tomorrow 102 99 (1909)
Saturday 101 98 (1963)

HOU

Today 99 107 (2000)
Tomorrow 100 97 (1963)
Saturday 99 98 (1963)

GLS

Today 95 104 (2000)
Tomorrow 96 94 (1912)
Saturday 95 94 (1876)

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions should prevail thru the period.

&&

.Marine...
With a weakening pressure gradient, east winds will diminish
today...as will seas. Surface high pressure will become established
over the nw Gulf and meander about the area thru the weekend which
should allow for light winds (variable at times) and low seas the
persist thru the weekend. A slightly more prevalent se flow should
resume early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 75 103 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 101 77 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 95 82 96 82 95 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...
Short/Long/Climate...31
Aviation/Marine/Fire...47