October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Halloween looks really cold. Thinking similar to the 2nd-3rd week of November last year.

[Cpv17]

Looking ahead to Halloween, there are some suggestions that some stormy weather and possibly the coldest air of the Fall Season arrives as October ends. I am closely following the extended guidance. We need to get a trailer load to Haywood County early in November and the movers on their way somewhere around the 10th.

I’m really only interested in the stormy part so hopefully I’ll have something to look forward to lol

[Cpv17]

Judging by the GFS, it looks like we’ll be caught in between two areas of rain and pretty much be dry slotted.

[snowman65]

Judging by the GFS, it looks like we’ll be caught in between two areas of rain and pretty much be dry slotted.

I hope so...I dont want any rain from Fri-Mon

[srainhoutx]

Finally some agreement among the Global models. The Euro/GFS/Canadian are suggesting the upper trough will produce a closed upper low and will not cut off from the main trough axis. That should decrease those higher rainfall totals suggested by the previous CMC/Euro solutions by about half.

[Cpv17]

Finally some agreement among the Global models. The Euro/GFS/Canadian are suggesting the upper trough will produce a closed upper low and will not cut off from the main trough axis. That should decrease those higher rainfall totals suggested by the previous CMC/Euro solutions by about half.

Well that sucks for me lol

[snowman65]

Finally some agreement among the Global models. The Euro/GFS/Canadian are suggesting the upper trough will produce a closed upper low and will not cut off from the main trough axis. That should decrease those higher rainfall totals suggested by the previous CMC/Euro solutions by about half.

Great news for me!!!

[Texaspirate11]

HGX disco says 2-5 inches of rain can be expected...so I'm confused about whether this is good or bad.....

[Cpv17]

HGX disco says 2-5 inches of rain can be expected...so I'm confused about whether this is good or bad.....

I’m somewhat confused myself because the Euro and GFS don’t appear to have that much rain for us, but when I look at the latest WPC map for the few days it shows about 1.5-2.5” for most of southeast TX over next few days which in my eyes is a solid rainfall event.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A powerful storm system will move across the area on Friday brining heavy rainfall, strong winds, high tides, and much cooler temperatures

Southerly winds will quickly increase this morning and help to transport deep tropical moisture over the weather Gulf of Mexico into the middle and upper TX coast by this afternoon. A rapid increase in cloud cover will be followed by rising rain chances by mid afternoon and then even better chances tonight into Friday morning. A strong cold front over the plains this morning will surge southward and across SE TX rapidly on Friday morning. Frontal timing has sped up some as is usual in these instances with the front blasting off the coast by Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms…some with heavy rainfall…will accompany this front and rain will linger into the afternoon hours on Friday before clouds clear out Friday night.

Rainfall Amounts:
Amounts will averaged 1-2 inches over the region with totals of 2-3 inches around Galveston Bay. Higher amounts are likely to remain offshore. There was more concern yesterday with a slower moving system, but the more progressive nature of this system now will likely keep rainfall amounts in a manageable range. Heavy rainfall may impact the Friday morning commute.

Tides:
Strong southerly winds today and tonight will result in high than normal tides along the coast and a coastal flood advisory is in effect. Tidal flooding will be possible at the lower areas along Bolivar, the west end of Galveston, and in SE Harris County around Shoreacres and the Lynchburg Ferry landing today and tonight.

Winds:
Strong southerly flow of 15-25mph will be common today, but will switch to N at 20-30mph on Friday. Winds will increase even more over the Gulf waters as the cold air strikes the still warm waters and the frontal boundary interacts with an area of disturbed tropical weather in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Sustained winds of 40-45mph will be possible along and offshore of the mid and lower coast on Friday with gust over 50mph.

Temperatures:
Arrival of the strong front on Friday will end the warmth of today and temperatures will fall from the 70’s before the front into the 60’s behind the front. Friday will be raw with lingering rain, strong N winds, and temperatures in the lower 60’s and upper 50’s. Clearing skies Friday night will allow many areas to fall toward the upper 40’s and sunny skies on Saturday will rebound to near 70 before most areas fall into the 40’s Sunday AM.

Halloween Early Look:
Appears a powerful early season Arctic air mass will be surging down the plains around the middle of next week and arriving into TX around the 30th. Halloween is currently looking very chilly but dry at least at the moment.

[srainhoutx]

Snow is developing at this hour across the Texas Panhandle while in the SW Gulf of Mexico, 97L has been designated by the NHC. For our neighbors in Southern/SE Louisiana, it looks stormy and very wet going into the weekend as that tropical disturbance rides NE along the cold front.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241440
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
940 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

14Z or 9AM surface analysis has cold front through much of west
Texas and entering the Big Country. Front then curves back NE into
Oklahoma and the Ozarks. Warm moist air continues to advect north
ahead of the front with dewpoints in the 60s reach just west of
DFW and 70 dewpoints down across S Texas. Front should push
through tonight as moisture continues to increase ahead of it.
Upper level trough lags behind the front and should push across
Texas tomorrow. Main expectation is for storms tonight across the
area with heavy rainfall and then clearing during the day
tomorrow. That much of the forecast has not really changed. What
may change will be rainfall amounts so we will need to keep a
close eye on those trends. But as far as a morning update goes,
the only real changes were for keeping with ongoing trends.

NHC did issue a special tropical weather outlook to increase the
probability of tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf to 50
percent. This disturbance is expected to remain in the Gulf and
overtaken by the cold front tomorrow.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 612 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019/...



.AVIATION...
SCT/BKN ceilings are moving across area TAF sites as low level
moisture returns to the area. Fcst soundings show clouds
scattering out this morning so will trend TAFs to show some
improvement in cigs. Saturation increases late this afternoon as a
cold front approaches from the west. SHRA/TSRA will develop at
KCLL by mid evening and this area of precip will overspread the
rest of the TAF sites between 06-12z. Winds will shift to the
north behind the front. MVFR ceilings are expected to accompany
the precip tonight. Further south, a surge of deeper moisture is
heading toward the middle coast and this will bring some showers
closer to the coast but think it will be south of both KGLS and
KLBX. 43


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 82 52 59 46 66 / 40 90 50 20 10
Houston (IAH) 80 61 65 51 69 / 20 80 50 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 79 69 71 57 68 / 30 90 70 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda
Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Overpeck

[jasons2k]

Hi gang, don’t have time to do much analysis today - just read that updated NWS discussion - when they say what may change are rainfall amounts, what are they inferring and seeing? Is this up or down? Is 97L gonna suck all the moisture away and east of us, or is this comment referring to something else?

Edit - read Jeff’s email. Looks like the system will be moving along, so 1-2” versus 3-5”

I’m OK with that but I hope in the end we don’t get shorted even more.

[BlueJay]

The wind is picking up.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241756
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

It`s thundersnowing in the TX Panhandle so that must mean the cold
front is on it`s way south. And indeed it is coming south but a
shallow enough front that there is a good surge in the front
through west Texas into west central Texas while the front is
being held up across central Oklahoma and the Ozarks. This means
that KCLL will likely see a line of TSRA with the front around
03-06Z but it might not get to the Houston terminals until 09Z and
the coast after that. Models are coming in with an IFR deck
which might be a bit over done but since this may be a shallow
front with moisture riding over the front, think that IFR may be a
better probability than not. That was the biggest change to the
TAFs - adding IFR conditions in a PROB30 group with the front and
continuing low ceilings after the front. Conditions improve 15Z to
18Z Friday at the end of the TAF period.

Overpeck

[Cpv17]

Snow is developing at this hour across the Texas Panhandle while in the SW Gulf of Mexico, 97L has been designated by the NHC. For our neighbors in Southern/SE Louisiana, it looks stormy and very wet going into the weekend as that tropical disturbance rides NE along the cold front.

Lucky them. Louisiana gets a ton of rain.

[Texaspirate11]

11:30 p.m. Torrential rain by the bay - glad it isn't a tropical storm *snark*

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Only .28 inches in Magnolia.

Oh well, the cool air is welcome!!!

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning 97L Update from Jeff:

Advisories will be initiated at 1000am on the tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Visible satellite images show a well defined surface circulation and a large mass of deep convection on the northern and eastern sides of the surface low. Winds of 40-50mph are already occurring over much of the western Gulf of Mexico and this system will likely be upgraded to TS Olga at 1000am.

The system is caught on the eastern side of the upper level trough over TX that will rapidly advance it toward the NNE today and toward the central Louisiana coast. A large area of gale force winds will spread over much of the western and northern Gulf in combination with strong high pressure building down the plains and the deepening low pressure with this feature moving toward LA. A strong cold front will overtake this system by tonight resulting in a post fontal low moving inland over the southern/southeastern US.

No impacts are expected along the TX coast from this system, although the tight pressure gradient already in place behind the cold front that is moving offshore may tighten a little more with sustained winds of 25-35mph and gust over 40mph especially along the coast and 50mph across the Gulf waters.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 251158
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
658 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
A mixture of LIFR to MVFR ceilings across the SE TX terminals this
morning. Showers are continuing to impact LBX to IAH and southward,
associated with the early morning cold front which is continuing
to push to the southeast. Most of the precipitation should be
east of the region by late morning into the early afternoon hours.
Gusty winds have already begun area wide, with stronger winds
along the coast. Northwesterly winds between 15 to 20 knots with
gusts closer to 25 knots will be possible through the TAF period.
MVFR ceilings will linger, with ceilings rising to VFR tomorrow
morning from west to east.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 354 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019/...

.SHORT TERM...[Today through Tonight]...
A cold front is continuing to push across the forecast area this
morning, bringing mostly showers and the occasional heavy downpour.
There has not been much in the way of lightning, with Houston County
seeing only a few strikes earlier this morning. The cold front is
currently draped from Port O`Connor to Pearland to Cleveland as of 3
AM, with winds out of the north to northwest behind the boundary.
Winds are between 15 to 20 MPH with gusts between 25 to 30 MPH.
Sustained winds of 25 MPH should reach along the immediate coast
later this morning behind the frontal passage. Therefore, a Wind
Advisory has been issued for the barrier islands stretching from
Matagorda through Chambers counties starting at 10 AM this morning
and continuing through 7 PM. This advisory may need to be extended
through a portion of the evening into the overnight hours as well.
In terms of precipitation, expect the main band associated with the
frontal boundary to continue to shift east and southeastward through
the morning hours, with precipitation clearing from west to east
through the afternoon hours. Most of the better downpours associated
with the main line should be east of the region by late morning,
with more stratiform rain trailing behind. Cloud cover will linger
through the late afternoon hours before also clearing west to east
by this evening. As a result, expect a much cooler day today than
yesterday, (about a 20 to 30 degree difference in high temperatures)
with high temperatures peaking in the upper 50s to 60s across much
of the region. Low temperatures tonight will also be on the chilly
side, tumbling into the mid 40s from College Station to Crockett and
mid 50s along the coast.

Hathaway


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
An upper level low will be located over SE OK early in the day.
This feature will move rapidly NE during the day allowing for a
dry NW flow aloft to develop and any remaining cloud cover in the
morning will rapidly erode by afternoon. Weak high pressure over
South Texas will slowly push east providing seasonal autumn
temperatures and generally clear skies on Sunday. Pressures begin
to fall over West Texas on Sunday afternoon and onshore winds
will return. As the low slides east, surface high pressure will
sink south and a cold front will move slowly south into North
Texas. The front could reach the coast by Monday night and then
stall as the first surface high drifts east and a very weak
coastal trough develops. A secondary surge of high pressure will
push the front through the region on Wednesday. There are some
significant differences between the ECMWF and the GFS with regard
to available moisture and timing for the mid week front. GFS has
been performing better as of late. That said, the ICON, Canadian
and UK models all supported the much wetter ECMWF. Split the
difference for now with chance PoPs but did lean toward the cooler
guidance for Wed-Fri. Drier weather is expected in the wake of
the front to end the week. 43


.MARINE...
A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through 4 AM this morning
until the frontal passage helps to lower tides back below impact
thresholds. The main hazard of concern over the next 24 hours will
be the strong post-frontal winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is
already in effect for Matagorda Bay and the western Gulf waters this
morning through 7 AM, while the eastern Gulf waters should continue
to exercise caution. Near sunrise this morning, expect the gradient
to strengthen as the frontal boundary makes its way through the Gulf
waters. As a result, SCAs are in effect for both Galveston and
Matagorda Bay from 7 AM through the evening hours, with choppy to
rough conditions anticipated. A Gale Warning remains in effect for
all of the Gulf waters, through this evening, though the offshore
waters stand a better chance of reaching Gale thresholds. Frequent
gusts to gale can be expected for the offshore waters and more
borderline conditions in the nearshore waters. Expect SCA conditions
will be possible through at the overnight hours across the Gulf
waters as well. Seas will peak between 5 to 8 feet in the nearshore
waters with seas 8 to 11 feet with occasional seas up to 14 feet
over the offshore waters. Winds and seas will lower by Sunday into
the early part of next week. The next front of the horizon does not
look to push through the region until next Wednesday.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 56 48 69 48 77 / 50 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 60 50 69 51 76 / 70 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 53 68 61 73 / 90 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from High
Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...08