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Since we're straddling a new month this week, decided to start the new thread and post HPC's 0z rain totals map, as they've increased the rain totals for the week over the southern half of SE TX.

Looks to be a wet start for July.

Dry for the 4th please!

The NWS is calling for 30% chance of rain towards the end of the week.

Between an upper-level low in NE Mexico, an inverted trough over West Texas, and this Alex fellow in the Gulf ... it looks like we could see some serious flooding later this week in south central (and other parts I'm sure) Texas. NWS Austin/San Antonio has scattershot POPs all week of around 40%.

srainhoutx wrote:Dry for the 4th please!

But not TOO dry.

HPC's 0z rain totals map ups rain amounts over SE TX through Saturday night...

Looks to be a wet week.

Well, I was going to begin a new thread for the month of July but I see that wxdata beat me to it. Do any of the computer models depict any more tropical cyclones forming out in the Atlantic Ocean, Carribean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico?

What about the temperatures for the month of July which, needless to say, initiates in less than two hours & is also the first full month of summer. Do any of the computer models depict any upper ninties/triple digits for daytime highs?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
919 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

.UPDATE...
MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH PW VALUES
RANGING FROM 2.8 TO 2.4 INCHES. K INEX VALUES ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ALL
THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TRAINING HAS BEGUN TO SET UP OVER JACKSON...
MATAGORDA AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES AND THIS AREA RECEIVED 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. HPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOWS A PLUME OF HIGH
MOISTURE TARGETING THIS REGION. TONIGHT...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THAT SAID...FEEL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
WARRANTED FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS
HIGH. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST COVERS THE SITUATION WELL. 43

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/01/10 1340Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1315Z JBN
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LIX...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND ERN TX/GULF COAST REGION THAT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX. PWATS ARE AVERAGING WILL ABOVE
2" IN MOST OF THESE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OF 2.5-2.75" ACROSS
SRN/SERN TX. IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/SERN TX AND THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO THE PAST FEW
HRS AND HAS BEEN MERGING INTO A FEW BANDS THAT ARE NOT ROTATING INTO
TX/SRN LA. CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING/EXPANDING IN IR IMAGERY AND THE SOME
ORGANIZATION INTO BANDS CAN BE SEEN. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW OVERSHOOTING
TOPS WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION AND SHOWS THE INDIVIDUAL BANDS A BIT
BETTER. RAIN RATES OF AT LEAST 1-2"/HR MAY BE OCCURRING GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE COOLING/EXPANDING TREND AND OVERSHOOTING
TOPS. AS THE BANDS ROTATE INLAND THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS, PERIODS OF MOD/HVY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS S TX/SRN LA WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL AMOUNTS
OF 1-3" POSSIBLE.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1400Z-1700Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN THE
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE GETTING ORGANIZED IN BANDS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
TX/LA COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF HVY RAIN ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THESE BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW
INTO TX/LA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
PERSISTENT BANDING/TRAINING OF CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID TX
COAST BETWEEN HOUSTON/CORPUS CHRISTI.

Sorry for the delay adding the Flood Watch...

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
935 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

TXZ226-227-235>238-020900-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0002.100701T1435Z-100702T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...MISSOURI CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...PIERCE...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...WHARTON
935 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WAS REPORTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA YESTERDAY AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT.

* ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CREATE A RISE ON AREA WATERSHEDS
SUCH AS THE SAN BERNARD RIVER...THE LAVACA NAVIDAD AND THE TRES
PALACIOS.

Watching storm mergers occurring across western Brazoria and eastern Matagorda county that will be lifting northwest into southern Wharton county over the next hour. Rain rates in the 2'' per hour range will likely be occurring across these areas. Another area of increasing convection is across southern Galveston county also lifting northwest.

It has been this way all week....The storms come straight up and just as soon as they are about to cross the bay into LaPorte, they go west...These storms are literally missing my area by about 1 mile..... Crazy....

Finally getting a good rain now....I had to water the garden/plants yesterday...

SPC: Convective Outlook-

2% chance of a tornado today over southwest SE TX

Full report:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... _1630.html

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1122 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 1115 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NEAR DANBURY WEST COLUMBIA. 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN
ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROSHARON...DAMON...CHOCOLATE BAYOU...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...WEST
COLUMBIA...RICHWOOD...OYSTER CREEK...LIVERPOOL...LAKE JACKSON...
JONES CREEK...IOWA COLONY...HOLIDAY LAKES...CLUTE...BRAZORIA...
BONNEY...BAILEY'S PRAIRIE AND ANGLETON.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1121 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

TXC167-011815-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0039.100701T1621Z-100701T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GALVESTON TX-
1121 AM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1121 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN GALVESTON COUNTY.

Southeastern Harris too....