July 2020
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Kingwood36
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- Location: Freeport
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man the thunder is banging hard this morning
Zapping and booming since about 3 AM on the south side. About to get another dose.
The radar looks nice this morning 
btw looking at last night's EURO it also now develops the Bahamas system into a depression or weak storm.
btw looking at last night's EURO it also now develops the Bahamas system into a depression or weak storm.-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 942
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- Location: NW Houston, TX
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7AM 7/21/2020
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Raised to 40%
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I see the Euro goes with the classics west Texas strengthening tropical cyclone 
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srainhoutx
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:
90L:
Tropical wave and associated 1009mb area of low pressure over Jackson County, TX is resulting in a favorable low level convergence zone across SE TX this morning with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-10. Given a saturated air column rainfall rates of 1-3 inches have been recorded over portions of Galveston and Brazoria Counties with this activity. Expect bands and waves of showers and thunderstorms to continue to move inland from the Gulf of Mexico through much of the morning and then a decrease in coverage this afternoon. Some heavy rainfall can be expected, but storm motions have been fast this morning. Main threat will be street flooding in any areas of sustained training or banding.
Tropical Wave (central Cuba)
A tropical wave axis located from southern FL southward to central Cuba is moving WNW with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Radar data from Key West indicates a broad low or mid level feature within this wave axis. This wave will move into the SE Gulf of Mexico late today and then across the central Gulf on Wednesday and into the NW Gulf Thursday. Conditions across the central and NW Gulf of Mexico appear favorable for some weak development of this wave as it nears the TX coast on Friday. Model guidance has shown an increasing trend for the formation of a weak low level circulation to develop with this wave and move generally toward the middle TX coast on Friday.
Regardless of development, widespread showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the upper TX coast as early as late Thursday evening and more likely into Friday and lasting into Saturday. Some of this rainfall will be heavy. Winds will back to the NE over the coastal waters on Thursday and increase into the 15-25kt range with seas building to 3-5 feet by late Thursday and likely higher on Friday. NE surface winds and increasing seas will result in increasing tides along the upper TX coast late Thursday into Friday. Changes to the forecast are likely for the end of the week depending on any additional development of this feature.
NHC currently gives the system a 40% chance of development.
99L:
A tropical wave with a well defined low to mid level circulation and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is located midway between Africa and the Caribbean Sea and is moving westward at 10-15mph. Conditions are favorable for this wave to develop over the next 2-3 days before the feature encounters unfavorable conditions by late this week and this weekend.
NHC currently gives this system a 60% chance of development.
90L:
Tropical wave and associated 1009mb area of low pressure over Jackson County, TX is resulting in a favorable low level convergence zone across SE TX this morning with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-10. Given a saturated air column rainfall rates of 1-3 inches have been recorded over portions of Galveston and Brazoria Counties with this activity. Expect bands and waves of showers and thunderstorms to continue to move inland from the Gulf of Mexico through much of the morning and then a decrease in coverage this afternoon. Some heavy rainfall can be expected, but storm motions have been fast this morning. Main threat will be street flooding in any areas of sustained training or banding.
Tropical Wave (central Cuba)
A tropical wave axis located from southern FL southward to central Cuba is moving WNW with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Radar data from Key West indicates a broad low or mid level feature within this wave axis. This wave will move into the SE Gulf of Mexico late today and then across the central Gulf on Wednesday and into the NW Gulf Thursday. Conditions across the central and NW Gulf of Mexico appear favorable for some weak development of this wave as it nears the TX coast on Friday. Model guidance has shown an increasing trend for the formation of a weak low level circulation to develop with this wave and move generally toward the middle TX coast on Friday.
Regardless of development, widespread showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the upper TX coast as early as late Thursday evening and more likely into Friday and lasting into Saturday. Some of this rainfall will be heavy. Winds will back to the NE over the coastal waters on Thursday and increase into the 15-25kt range with seas building to 3-5 feet by late Thursday and likely higher on Friday. NE surface winds and increasing seas will result in increasing tides along the upper TX coast late Thursday into Friday. Changes to the forecast are likely for the end of the week depending on any additional development of this feature.
NHC currently gives the system a 40% chance of development.
99L:
A tropical wave with a well defined low to mid level circulation and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is located midway between Africa and the Caribbean Sea and is moving westward at 10-15mph. Conditions are favorable for this wave to develop over the next 2-3 days before the feature encounters unfavorable conditions by late this week and this weekend.
NHC currently gives this system a 60% chance of development.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Everything dissipates as it gets close to me. I had a few drops yesterday, but the line split upon arrival.
That's no joke. Dry air mixed in basically along 59, or lack of lift? Happy with any rain that'll find its way to ground-level, but yeah interesting that it seems there's a lid out there shutting the door on further spread inland.
The GFS continues to be unimpressed with this feature. Latest 12z doesn’t do much with it besides give most of us about 1-2” of rain.
91L has been designated
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
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- Location: Freeport
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91L INVEST 200721 1800 26.0N 92.0W ATL 15 NA
12z EURO is wet.Looks like it develops the system into a depression.
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We're too far west. Looks like another bust (70% rain predicted). Will wait for 91L Thursday and Friday.
Whoa at the Euro forecast. Even College Station would be happy!
Looks a little funnel-y out there today.
Pretty nauseating for a system that went in over Jackson County this morning.
A landfalling tropical wave, on the cusp, with PWATS of 2.5” makes landfall a good 100 miles to my southwest, but I’m somehow, some way, too far west to get any rain. File that under “only in Texas” - geez.