Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:32 am
91l looks very disorganized this morning..think recon will be cancelled again?
My hunch is recon will fly out there today. Looking at visible this morning there is clearly low level convergence in all four quadrants under the deep convection that is bubbling up right now. Looks like the 'center' is developing around 87W 25N.
Be interesting to see how well it can maintain this convection throughout the day or if it will wane off.
It’s looking like the models for 91L have most of the rain concentrated right along the center and just south of the center when it comes ashore later this week..that could be a bad thing if you’re wanting rain. It’s looking like areas north of 10 might be lucky to get 1-2” out of this. Jackpot seems to be from the Victotria area down towards Corpus Christi as of right now.
QPF will largely depend on how Invest 91L gets its act together and location of landfall. Though with SETX likely being on the eastern side of this system, heavy rainfall and even flooding is possible. WPC increasing rainfall totals - mainly just offshore. Where the training feeder bands set up will be the areas that will have the greatest flood threat. Even after 91L moves inland, high PW's with a strong southerly moisture feed will still be funneled right in our area as 91L moves west near the RGV.
Parts of Beaumont and Port Arthur saw 4-5 inches yesterday, much of that falling late afternoon into the evening as a convergence zone set up over the area from the remnants of the low that moved into the Victoria area a few days ago. That will be something we will need to watch for as we head into Saturday-Monday.
Im getting nervous about qpf covering the beaumont Port Arthur area more and more each day. Weve had 4-5” of rain here since yesterday and so far qpf has us for another 4-5” when the storm approaches. Which is manageable, but if it keeps climbing, I think once again we will be in trouble. Maybe not another Harvey but possibly another Imelda situation here. Just proves that you dont need a direct hit from a storm foe it to reak havoc. Keeping a close eye on this one. Time will only tell...
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:47 am
It’s looking like the models for 91L have most of the rain concentrated right along the center and just south of the center when it comes ashore later this week..that could be a bad thing if you’re wanting rain. It’s looking like areas north of 10 might be lucky to get 1-2” out of this. Jackpot seems to be from the Victotria area down towards Corpus Christi as of right now.
U model watch to much, look at the pattern, look at the total environment and ingredients in place, if it develops info trop Storm u will see more totals.
Yeah I agree it's a little too early to put too much stock in QPF amounts and locations. How organized and the size of 91L will have impacts on QPF amounts. Remember that low resolution models can often underestimate rainfall amounts when it comes to tropical rains. With southeast Texas most likely being on the dirty side,don't sleep on the potential for flooding regardless of the QPF the models are showing.
don wrote: ↑Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:02 am
Yeah I agree it's a little too early to put too much stock in QPF amounts and locations. How organized and the size of 91L will have impacts on QPF amounts. Remember that low resolution models can often underestimate rainfall amounts when it comes to tropical rains. With southeast Texas most likely being on the dirty side,don't sleep on the potential for flooding regardless of the QPF the models are showing.
91L is looking better by the second... models have been really bad so far (probably due to less planes flying, etc. etc. maybe?) but there may be some surprises with this if the trend continues
91L may be classified as a tropical depression as early as this afternoon.Looking at the ASCAT it may be a depression already, we'll have to wait for recon to verify.
