July 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
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davidiowx wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:01 am
unome wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:51 am
Belmer wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 9:37 am

I'm using this cam, which is near Corpus:

https://webcams.windy.com/webcams/stream/1486829163
tks - Bob Hall Pier in major flood per latest https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inund ... Hanna.html
That pier may be gone after Hannah has passed through. It’s going to take a day of beating.
apparently it did https://foxsanantonio.com/news/local/hu ... -hall-pier
davidiowx
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unome wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:37 pm
davidiowx wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:01 am
unome wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:51 am

tks - Bob Hall Pier in major flood per latest https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inund ... Hanna.html
That pier may be gone after Hannah has passed through. It’s going to take a day of beating.
apparently it did https://foxsanantonio.com/news/local/hu ... -hall-pier
Crazy. I also saw the flood watch was cancelled as well. Was thinking when that would happen. The mesoscale models haven’t been showing any significant rains (or even rain at all lol) for our area for most of the day
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jasons2k
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Come on band....hold it together. So. Close.
davidiowx
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jasons2k wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:37 pm Come on band....hold it together. So. Close.
Hope you get some! I have had little over 1/2” imby. Curious to see if the rain picks up in coverage over night. The mesos don’t really show anything and I’ve seen my rain chances drop by the NWS
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jasons2k
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davidiowx wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:44 pm
jasons2k wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:37 pm Come on band....hold it together. So. Close.
Hope you get some! I have had little over 1/2” imby. Curious to see if the rain picks up in coverage over night. The mesos don’t really show anything and I’ve seen my rain chances drop by the NWS
Thanks! I managed to collect .66" today, so I am very happy about that.

Interestingly, my AccuRite digital rain gauge has been under-measuring my rainfall. I don't think it's a placement issue - I think the sensor or bucket has gone kaput. It only shows .45" today while my Stratus cylinder gauge was .66" -- it's probably time to get a new station anyway. I'd like to get a Davis but they are pricey.
bikerack
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Grand total of 2 minutes of rain in kingwood today.
Cromagnum
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Right at 1 inch of rain in Rosharon. I know some got more some got less. Hopefully folks get a bit more early this week before the dry pressure dome sets back in.
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DoctorMu
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Just about 0.3 in here. Hoping for a round tomorrow. Maybe for more than a couple of minutes.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 261130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

.AVIATION...

A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR cigs is expected to continue through around
15Z this morning. Thereafter, cigs will gradually lift and
scatter out. Areas of showers are moving a little more northward
this morning as expected, and are now reaching the general area of
IAH. As the day progresses, coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms will increase, particularly during the afternoon
hours. Knowing exactly when and where SHRA/TSRA will be remains
tricky today, thus continue VCTS wording and will likely utilized
TEMPOs throughout the day. E-SE winds at around 10 KTS today with
higher gusts on occasion, decreasing to around 5 KTS late this
evening. Winds will briefly be VRB and stronger in and around
thunderstorms. Winds along the coastal sites will remain 10-15
KTS and gusty. Forecast sounding indicate MVFR to possibly IFR
cigs developing once again tonight through Monday morning across
portions of the CWA. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Monday Afternoon]...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATE: The Flash Flood Watch has been
cancelled. The Coastal Flood Warning has been degraded to a Coastal
Flood Advisory. The High Risk of Rip Currents continues in effect.

Fast moving isolated to scattered showers associated to the recently
degraded Tropical Storm Hanna, continue to move across the coasts
and southernmost counties of Southeast TX. Matagorda, Jackson and
Chambers counties have received the most rainfall so far. Doppler
Radar over these regions has reported total rainfall accumulations
of around 0.1-0.5 inch during the last three hours or so. Winds have
also subsided inland to 10 MPH or less, but remains fairly windy
along the coastal locations. As of 3 Am CDT, Galveston Airport was
still reporting winds of 15-20 MPH with higher gusts and will likely
persist during the day today. An unstable weather pattern is
expected to continue across Southeast Texas today. This is mainly
due to the interaction between entrainment of tropical moisture
behind Hanna and an upper level disturbance moving southwestward
from northern LA into eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a fairly
saturated profile, which will support development of heavy rain.
This could be an issue across the southern half of the CWA where
soils are fairly saturated and with yesterday`s bouts of heavy
rainfall, slow moving showers and thunderstorms could lead to minor
urban and street flooding. The northern counties have not received
as much rainfall these past few days as the central and southern
counties, so that region will likely hold more rain amounts.
Activity will dissipate along areas north of I-10 tonight, however,
areas south of I-10 including the coasts will continue to see
periods of showers and thunderstorms. A similar weather pattern can
be expected Monday as the upper disturbance persists across northern
LA and eastern TX. Ongoing activity will remain along the Gulf
waters and southern counties in the morning expanding northwards
during the late morning and afternoon hours.

High temperatures today will range between the upper 80s along areas
south of I-10 to low 90s along areas north of I-10. Monday will be a
degree or two higher than today. 24

LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]...
Remnants of Hanna mainly in the form of moisture should still be
playing a part Monday night/Tuesday with a surge of moisture
coming up through the western portions of the Gulf into SETX.
Soundings look to support scattered to possibly numerous showers
and thunderstorms initiating in the Gulf waters and spreading into
the area. Then the pattern shifts over to the more typical
diurnal pattern for Wednesday with the LLJ over SETX so storms
should be fast moving but could still see some good coverage. The
upper ridge expands over the northern Gulf Coast Thursday briefly
leading to temperatures rising up into the mid-upper 90s across
the area...another hot day and drier Friday as an upper level
trough drops through the Upper MS valley and digs down into SETX.
Pooling of moisture ahead of the trough and a surface boundary
pushing down into NETX looks to be a decent setup for more showers
and thunderstorms. Timing though will be a big player so for now
will carry chance POPs northeast on Saturday and Sunday but this
could change.

Tropics...Hanna dissipating but will leave moisture over SETX for
a few more days. Tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic will
be racing through the MDR and currently the NHC outlooks have
boosted the chance of this system developing to 90 percent over
the next five days. And on that note by day 5 it should be in
close proximity to Puerto Rico/Haiti. ECMWF is tracking it more
westward and faster to near the Yucatan by Tue Aug 4th and the GFS
recurves it generally toward the North Carolina coast by the same
day. Much of that will hinge on the depth of the upper trough that
may bring us rain next weekend so yet another reason to stay
tuned.
45

MARINE...

..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

Moderate to strong winds and high seas (long period swell) continue
across the Gulf waters and is producing hazardous marine conditions.
A Small Craft Advisory continues in effect for the bays through
today and through tonight for the Gulf waters. Bouy 42035, located
in the nearshore Gulf waters adjacent to Galveston Bay, reported
sustained winds of 17 KTS and seas of 8 FT at 4 AM CDT. Bouy 42019,
located in the offshore Gulf waters adjacent to Matagorda Bay,
reported sustained winds of 19 KTS and seas of 10 FT at 4 AM CDT.
The combination of elevated seas and tides will continue to lead to
minor coastal flooding along the coastal regions of Southeast TX
today, particularly during high tide. Overall marine conditions
should be below advisory or caution criteria by Monday night.
Unsettled weather conditions are likely to persist across the Gulf
waters through mid week. Low chances of rain will follow thereafter
and continue through the weekend. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 91 76 93 / 70 30 50 20 40
Houston (IAH) 87 75 89 77 89 / 60 30 70 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 86 80 87 80 87 / 70 60 60 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...
Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

High Rip Current Risk from 10 AM CDT this morning through late
tonight for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation/Marine...24
Long Term/Climate/Fire Weather...45
Kingwood36
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Radar is starting to look pretty good out there
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djmike
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Hannah brought me a whopping 1.60” of rain in Beaumont. Was really expecting the 3-4” range like models and qpf were suggesting. Hopefully today and tomorrow we get a little more to suffice all our needs in setx.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
davidiowx
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Nice storm here in a Richmond the past 10-15 min. Nice soaking rain, nothing heavy. Does look like radar is starting to fill in to the SE of here so maybe can get good afternoon of rain. Fingers crossed! Anything to keep the sun in check is good!
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum
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Pretty active today in my area.
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jasons2k
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Yeah, the radar is lighting-up like a Christmas tree. More rain on it today since....who remembers? June sometime?
unome
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echo tops - thecell moving up 290 from I-10 might get interesting

https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_ ... s_step=120
Cpv17
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I received another .8” today bringing my total to 3.05” from Hanna. I also received 1.20” on Wednesday morning so that brings my total up to 4.25” since Wednesday. Happy camper!!
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djmike
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NWS has me at 90% of rain today. I dont see nada on radar except whats in Louisiana that clearly isn’t headed this way. Where is this chance coming from? Is the heat supposed to explode things later?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Cromagnum
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Lots of activity towards Lake Jackson
Cpv17
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Today is definitely looking like a bust. Okay with me though! I’ll be good for a couple weeks.
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