Wx Infinity Forums

sau27 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:59 am I see the Euro goes with the classics west Texas strengthening tropical cyclone

The Euro does this all the time. Not sure why it always wants to develop storms so aggressively over land like that?

The GFS continues to be unimpressed with this feature. Latest 12z doesn’t do much with it besides give most of us about 1-2” of rain.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:41 am The GFS continues to be unimpressed with this feature. Latest 12z doesn’t do much with it besides give most of us about 1-2” of rain.

Fine by me. I'm headed southwest down the coast a bit to fish. Don't need something bad to blow in.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:55 am

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:41 am The GFS continues to be unimpressed with this feature. Latest 12z doesn’t do much with it besides give most of us about 1-2” of rain.

Fine by me. I'm headed southwest down the coast a bit to fish. Don't need something bad to blow in.

I don’t buy the GFS though. The Euro makes much more sense. Well besides the fact that it has it strengthening over land.

91L has been designated

91L INVEST 200721 1800 26.0N 92.0W ATL 15 NA

12z EURO is wet.Looks like it develops the system into a depression.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:34 am Everything dissipates as it gets close to me. I had a few drops yesterday, but the line split upon arrival.

We're too far west. Looks like another bust (70% rain predicted). Will wait for 91L Thursday and Friday.

Whoa at the Euro forecast. Even College Station would be happy!

Looks a little funnel-y out there today.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:24 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:34 am Everything dissipates as it gets close to me. I had a few drops yesterday, but the line split upon arrival.

We're too far west. Looks like another bust (70% rain predicted). Will wait for 91L Thursday and Friday.

Pretty nauseating for a system that went in over Jackson County this morning.

A landfalling tropical wave, on the cusp, with PWATS of 2.5” makes landfall a good 100 miles to my southwest, but I’m somehow, some way, too far west to get any rain. File that under “only in Texas” - geez.

Ensemble support is growing not only for the approaching system but for 99l getting into the Gulf in the longer range.

I think they might up the percentage for 91l at the next update.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:39 pm Ensemble support is growing not only for the approaching system but for 99l getting into the Gulf in the longer range.

I think they might up the percentage for 91l at the next update.

I was thinking the same thing atleast 50%

Yeah I say 50-60

Scott747 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:39 pm Ensemble support is growing not only for the approaching system but for 99l getting into the Gulf in the longer range.

I think they might up the percentage for 91l at the next update.

And it was just a couple of days ago when someone - either one of the guys on Space City Weather or Jeff said that while there were signs the season would get started in August, expect no systems for the rest of July. Then BOOM!

I started the day with a forecast of 80% likely heavy rain. Not a drop so far... and the forecast as of this message is 70% likely rain for this afternoon/evening. Current radar says no-way. I'm not blaming the local NWS folks, just the models they rely on. How can they miss so bigly?

Got 3 inches by the bay last night
La Marque got 5 and Galveston 4 inches
It can stop now.
we good.

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:19 pm Got 3 inches by the bay last night
La Marque got 5 and Galveston 4 inches
It can stop now.
we good.

Y’all were pretty much the only area in SETX that got decent rains.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:58 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:24 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:34 am Everything dissipates as it gets close to me. I had a few drops yesterday, but the line split upon arrival.

We're too far west. Looks like another bust (70% rain predicted). Will wait for 91L Thursday and Friday.

Pretty nauseating for a system that went in over Jackson County this morning.

A landfalling tropical wave, on the cusp, with PWATS of 2.5” makes landfall a good 100 miles to my southwest, but I’m somehow, some way, too far west to get any rain. File that under “only in Texas” - geez.

Which always leaves me thinking...why? Of course, that question probably stands for just about anything and everything weather related. Mother Nature is quite the complicated ole gal.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:12 pm

Scott747 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:39 pm Ensemble support is growing not only for the approaching system but for 99l getting into the Gulf in the longer range.

I think they might up the percentage for 91l at the next update.

And it was just a couple of days ago when someone - either one of the guys on Space City Weather or Jeff said that while there were signs the season would get started in August, expect no systems for the rest of July. Then BOOM!

I believe it was Space City Weather...wink

I’m beginning to see signs on some of the models that this system may begin to slow down and linger over Texas for a while.