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Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:39 pm
by Scott747
Ensemble support is growing not only for the approaching system but for 99l getting into the Gulf in the longer range.
I think they might up the percentage for 91l at the next update.
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:46 pm
by Kingwood36
Scott747 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:39 pm
Ensemble support is growing not only for the approaching system but for 99l getting into the Gulf in the longer range.
I think they might up the percentage for 91l at the next update.
I was thinking the same thing atleast 50%
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:56 pm
by Stormlover2020
Yeah I say 50-60
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:12 pm
by jasons2k
Scott747 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:39 pm
Ensemble support is growing not only for the approaching system but for 99l getting into the Gulf in the longer range.
I think they might up the percentage for 91l at the next update.
And it was just a couple of days ago when someone - either one of the guys on Space City Weather or Jeff said that while there were signs the season would get started in August, expect no systems for the rest of July. Then BOOM!
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:16 pm
by Kludge
I started the day with a forecast of 80% likely heavy rain. Not a drop so far... and the forecast as of this message is 70% likely rain for this afternoon/evening. Current radar says no-way. I'm not blaming the local NWS folks, just the models they rely on. How can they miss so bigly?
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:19 pm
by Texaspirate11
Got 3 inches by the bay last night
La Marque got 5 and Galveston 4 inches
It can stop now.
we good.
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:40 pm
by Cpv17
Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:19 pm
Got 3 inches by the bay last night
La Marque got 5 and Galveston 4 inches
It can stop now.
we good.
Y’all were pretty much the only area in SETX that got decent rains.
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:49 pm
by txbear
jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:58 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:24 pm
jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:34 am
Everything dissipates as it gets close to me. I had a few drops yesterday, but the line split upon arrival.
We're too far west. Looks like another bust (70% rain predicted). Will wait for 91L Thursday and Friday.
Pretty nauseating for a system that went in over Jackson County this morning.
A landfalling tropical wave, on the cusp, with PWATS of 2.5” makes landfall a good 100 miles to my southwest, but I’m somehow, some way, too far west to get any rain. File that under “only in Texas” - geez.
Which always leaves me thinking...why? Of course, that question probably stands for just about anything and everything weather related. Mother Nature is quite the complicated ole gal.
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:16 pm
by srainhoutx
jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:12 pm
Scott747 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:39 pm
Ensemble support is growing not only for the approaching system but for 99l getting into the Gulf in the longer range.
I think they might up the percentage for 91l at the next update.
And it was just a couple of days ago when someone - either one of the guys on Space City Weather or Jeff said that while there were signs the season would get started in August, expect no systems for the rest of July. Then BOOM!
I believe it was Space City Weather...wink
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:51 pm
by Cpv17
I’m beginning to see signs on some of the models that this system may begin to slow down and linger over Texas for a while.
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:04 pm
by djmike
What are the chances this storm comes ashore on the upper texas coast rather than lower to mid?
Remember, most storms are notorious for marking its first landfall with models then does the infamous shift eastward as days go on... We will see.
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:26 pm
by Stormlover2020
All about the High pressure
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:14 pm
by DoctorMu
Kludge wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:16 pm
I started the day with a forecast of 80% likely heavy rain. Not a drop so far... and the forecast as of this message is 70% likely rain for this afternoon/evening. Current radar says no-way. I'm not blaming the local NWS folks, just the models they rely on. How can they miss so bigly?
Same here. Another day. Another bust. Sprinklers on stun.
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:21 pm
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:51 pm
I’m beginning to see signs on some of the models that this system may begin to slow down and linger over Texas for a while.
Euro Gone Wild on the long-term precip. 2.5 inches to 6 to 14 inches from Houston to the Hill Country, particularly related to 91L and 99L over the next 10 days. 1-3 inches on the other models. Maybe.
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:37 pm
by Rip76
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:21 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:51 pm
I’m beginning to see signs on some of the models that this system may begin to slow down and linger over Texas for a while.
Euro Gone Wild on the long-term precip. 2.5 inches to 6 to 14 inches from Houston to the Hill Country, particularly related to 91L and 99L over the next 10 days. 1-3 inches on the other models. Maybe.
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:35 pm
by Cpv17
0z ICON model is coming in a good bit stronger and slower too. Definitely a tropical storm.
Re: July 2020
Posted: Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:06 pm
by jasons2k
Some of the short range models develop precipitation around the Houston metro area overnight. We shall see...
Re: July 2020
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:08 am
by Waded
Got 3 inches over the last 24 hours here by Clear Lake. Not going to be greedy, only going to ask for another 6 inches from 91L.
Re: July 2020
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:32 am
by Kingwood36
91l looks very disorganized this morning..think recon will be cancelled again?
Re: July 2020
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:40 am
by Kingwood36
Up to 50% now..i think recon will be a go today