February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[Rip76]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise near record breaking cold early Tuesday morning.

These are not wind chill numbers I take it.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise near record breaking cold early Tuesday morning.

These are not wind chill numbers I take it.

No, -10 to -20 wind chills

[djmike]

Whata this is hear about another storm on thursday?

I just saw that too! That came from nowhere! Oh my!

[jerryh421]

Whata this is hear about another storm on thursday?

I just saw that too! That came from nowhere! Oh my!

Two runs in a row now showing the second storm. Canadian has it too, but further north.

[txbear]

The temps we're seeing on the GFS/ICON/CMC are absolutely nuts. That's another level of cold that is usually reserved for our friends on the Caprock, and on up into the flyover states. Heck,even this type of freezer box and duration are something else for the Panhandle folks where the elevations are >3,000 ft.

Make double sure you've got those pipes wrapped, spigots covered, pool equipment running (don't forget your water features), and really consider the dripping faucets. You might also make sure you've got a sharp chain, oil, and fuel if you own a chainsaw.

[jasons2k]

I’m getting more and more concerned about power outages. Could be widespread power outages so get prepared.

[AtascocitaWX]

How good is the UKMET with winter weather?
12z shows snowfall for all out Texas.
4-6 inches in Houston

[sambucol]

Is there going to be wind with this system?

[txsnowmaker]

12z GFS shows several inches of snow over Houston, with the massive totals from the 6z adjusted north a bit. I’d gladly settle for a few inches!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_33.png

[don]

Remember those snow maps on tropical tidbits includes sleet,so not all of that would be snow.

[txsnowmaker]

When will the short range models start that include all of Monday?

[txsnowmaker]

Remember those snow maps on tropical tidbits includes sleet,so not all of that would be snow.

I’ll settle for half of that being snow, and at least none of it is freezing rain.

[txsnowmaker]

The Canadian fwiw...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_21.png

[jasons2k]

Is there going to be wind with this system?

Yes with very cold wind chills.

[tireman4]

Remember those snow maps on tropical tidbits includes sleet,so not all of that would be snow.

I’ll settle for half of that being snow, and at least none of it is freezing rain.

As I have driven in all three precip types, I will take snow (dry is the best) over sleet. Freezing rain, yuck. At night, even worse.

[txsnowmaker]

Based on the latest models would Houston be situated between the coastal low and trough? I read in another forum that whoever falls in that sweet spot could see blizzard conditions.

[txsnowmaker]

NWS just went with “rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely” (60%) for Monday night! Doubt we’ll be seeing much in the way of rain!

[don]

Yep NWS finally biting. 12z EURO is slowly but surly trending colder with each run also.At this point all of the main global models are onboard for a major winter storm on President day.If the trend continues this may end up as a once in a lifetime winter storm around here.

[vci_guy2003]

Would this be a classic Gulf effect snow?

[DoctorMu]

When the ensembles have single digits for lows in CLL...

Jeez...the second storm (next Wed/Thursday) could put a layer of snow - ice on top.