February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[Andrew]

ECMWF:

GFS:

[Kingwood36]

ECMWF:
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GFS:
download (4).png

Euro has to be on crack

[tireman4]

Remember, and Andrew, Blake, Belmer and Srain can correct me on this, models have a hard time with cold air ( the really dense air, and at times, the shallow pool), They tend, at times, to lose it and suddenly bring it back.

[don]

Folks like i said earlier the Euro is already folding towards the other models, i suspect in tonight's 0z run it will be close to the same page as the other models. I feel fairly confident that most of us will see primarily frozen precipitation on Monday.But what kind still remains to be seen.As temperatures wont be an issue with this event,as there will be too much cold air advection which will overpower any warm nose that develops. I expect precip may start off as rain for some briefly but quickly cool the air column and transition to freezing rain or sleet quickly.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My official forecast is 9 to 26 on Monday now... 70% chance of Snow and Sleet... freezing rain early morning hours

[Kingwood36]

I just want to take time out and say how much I appreciate this board and the people on it..im still learning about all this cool stuff and ppl here take time out and help me which is greatly appreciated! Also I'm thankful that this board is for local weather. I've tried to ask questions on s2k and they ignore it if it's about the Houston area. I guess that thread is mostly north texas cuz I rarely see anything regarding our area..I just wanted to say I'm grateful for the ppl who set this board up and co tinue to run it and make it such a great resource! Ok rant over lol

[Kingwood36]

My official forecast is 9 to 26 on Monday now... 70% chance of Snow and Sleet... freezing rain early morning hours

Where do you find the offical forecast for your area at?

[srainhoutx]

My official forecast is 9 to 26 on Monday now... 70% chance of Snow and Sleet... freezing rain early morning hours

Where do you find the offical forecast for your area at?

Go to NWS HGX website and click on your County in the general location where you live.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My official forecast is 9 to 26 on Monday now... 70% chance of Snow and Sleet... freezing rain early morning hours

Where do you find the offical forecast for your area at?

MOS

But official NWS, TWC and WU are similar

[TexasBreeze]

I just want to take time out and say how much I appreciate this board and the people on it..im still learning about all this cool stuff and ppl here take time out and help me which is greatly appreciated! Also I'm thankful that this board is for local weather. I've tried to ask questions on s2k and they ignore it if it's about the Houston area. I guess that thread is mostly north texas cuz I rarely see anything regarding our area..I just wanted to say I'm grateful for the ppl who set this board up and co tinue to run it and make it such a great resource! Ok rant over lol

The best part is that it is local. That forum is too busy during events and it really is north Tx centered. Missed questions is just the nature of things when the boards get hopping. Keep asking them here and it will be answered down the line, guaranteed! This busy forum traffic is just the beginning though.....

[Cpv17]

Wow, this is for the second cold blast later next week. Ridiculous!!

[jasons2k]

NWS forecast for me has not been updated...yet.

Disco should be out in an hour or so ahead of the afternoon package update:

Washington's Birthday
Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night
A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.

[christinac2016]

NWS forecast for me has not been updated...yet.

Disco should be out in an hour or so ahead of the afternoon package update:

Washington's Birthday
Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night
A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.

The Weather channel shows for Spring/The Woodlands Sunday night low of 26 with snow and ice accumulation. Monday high of 29 and low of 14 with snow in morning.

[srainhoutx]

Wow, this is for the second cold blast later next week. Ridiculous!!

Another view from the CPC and it's looking like the chilly air will continue into late February.

[jasons2k]

Kingwood sorry to hear your question didn’t get answered. It can become a torrent of posts when it’s busy. It is more DFW-focused but the only we can change that is to post

[Kingwood36]

Kingwood sorry to hear your question didn’t get answered. It can become a torrent of posts when it’s busy. It is more DFW-focused but the only we can change that is to post

No worries man..I prefer this site anyway since the ppl actually respond and it's local..kinda hard to get a word in edge wise if you don't live in North Texas on that other page

[don]

18Z NAM has most of the area not getting out of the 30s all day Saturday.

[jasons2k]

The NAM has been running too warm in DFW too...busted today

[biggerbyte]

My forecast is now calling for freezing temps day and night. There is also now a believable forecast for sleet and snow.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It’s possible we go a full 72 hours below freezing.

Reading several AFDs and of course seeing the models, it’s very clear the Euro is being discarded by most.

With that said, the Euro continues to cave to the GFS, so the trend is there.