February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[DoctorMu]

12z EURO ensemble snow mean.

Regression back to the mean. Could be close.

[Cpv17]

12z EURO ensemble snow mean.

We need that to trend at least another 50 miles south and I’ll be happy.

[Stormlover2020]

Nam is dirty on this run!!! Low is more south

[Cpv17]

Nam is dirty on this run!!! Low is more south

It’s tilting negatively!

[Cpv17]

Winter Storm Watches have just been issued folks!

[srainhoutx]

Winter Storm Watches have just been issued folks!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
241 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>438-130445-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.A.0003.210214T2100Z-210216T0000Z/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-
Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-
Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu,
Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton,
Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony,
Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton,
League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios,
Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque,
Surfside Beach, and Galveston
241 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Periods of snow, freezing rain, and sleet will impact
Southeast Texas. Snowfall amounts will total approximately 1-3"
with the highest totals falling north of the Houston metro.
Areas in and north of the Houston metro are also expected to
receive 0.1-0.25" of accumulating ice. Areas south of the
Houston metro, including the coast and barrier islands, may
receive ice amounts of 0.1" or less.

* WHERE...All of Southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Precipitation will begin on Sunday afternoon as mainly
rain, transitioning to sleet and freezing rain overnight and
becoming a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain on Monday
morning. Precipitation will taper off by Monday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

* Travel will be severely impacted by hazardous icy and snowy road
conditions. Sporadic power outages will be a possibility. Pipes
and sprinkler systems may burst if not properly cared for in
advance. Do so now!

* You should plan to stay put for at least a day given where you
are Sunday night because travel may be extremely hazardous
Monday.

* Hypothermia will be a possibility for those not dressed
appropriately. Brutally cold wind chill readings of -10 to 10
degrees will be likely Monday through Tuesday morning.

* Remember the 4 P`s: pipes, people, pets and plants. In addition,
be aware of space heater dangers if not properly placed/used.

&&

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Winter Storm Watches have just been issued folks!

We have lift off!

[jasons2k]

An old rule I used in the 80's and 90's growing-up: if it got to -40F in Montana, then we were in for a true blue norther. It hit -40F this morning.

[Cpv17]

Winter Storm Watches have just been issued folks!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
241 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>438-130445-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.A.0003.210214T2100Z-210216T0000Z/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-
Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-
Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu,
Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton,
Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony,
Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton,
League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios,
Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque,
Surfside Beach, and Galveston
241 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Periods of snow, freezing rain, and sleet will impact
Southeast Texas. Snowfall amounts will total approximately 1-3"
with the highest totals falling north of the Houston metro.
Areas in and north of the Houston metro are also expected to
receive 0.1-0.25" of accumulating ice. Areas south of the
Houston metro, including the coast and barrier islands, may
receive ice amounts of 0.1" or less.

* WHERE...All of Southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Precipitation will begin on Sunday afternoon as mainly
rain, transitioning to sleet and freezing rain overnight and
becoming a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain on Monday
morning. Precipitation will taper off by Monday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

* Travel will be severely impacted by hazardous icy and snowy road
conditions. Sporadic power outages will be a possibility. Pipes
and sprinkler systems may burst if not properly cared for in
advance. Do so now!

* You should plan to stay put for at least a day given where you
are Sunday night because travel may be extremely hazardous
Monday.

* Hypothermia will be a possibility for those not dressed
appropriately. Brutally cold wind chill readings of -10 to 10
degrees will be likely Monday through Tuesday morning.

* Remember the 4 P`s: pipes, people, pets and plants. In addition,
be aware of space heater dangers if not properly placed/used.

&&

Doesn’t seem like much of an event south of 10 with that wording.

[srainhoutx]

Remember the current Watch is 48 hours ahead of the main Winter Storm. Expect fine tuning of the forecast up to when a Warning is issued. Do not discount the fact that the Watch is for the HGX forecast area including the Coast.

[davidiowx]

Winter Storm Watches have just been issued folks!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
241 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

Doesn’t seem like much of an event south of 10 with that wording.

There are a lot of things that could and will change. It is cold outside, very cold and more cold is coming. It is very difficult to forecast these events a day out, much less 2+ days. Everyone needs to be ready and prepare for the worst.

[Cpv17]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
241 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

Doesn’t seem like much of an event south of 10 with that wording.

There are a lot of things that could and will change. It is cold outside, very cold and more cold is coming. It is very difficult to forecast these events a day out, much less 2+ days. Everyone needs to be ready and prepare for the worst.

Yeah the 18z NAM looks slightly better but I remember someone from the Jan event saying it overdoes qpf amounts.

[jasons2k]

My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...

[Stormlover2020]

Nws lake Charles prob will be next

[JDsGN]

My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...

I haven't seen it get above 35-36 here in Katy so far but my weather channel hourly forecast keeps trying to force it up to 43 lol. I don't think either highs in the 40s for the weekend are going to come to fruition.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I popped above freezing briefly... I'm back down to freezing.

I may not see it again until next weekend.

[Cpv17]

My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...

I haven't seen it get above 35-36 here in Katy so far but my weather channel hourly forecast keeps trying to force it up to 43 lol. I don't think either highs in the 40s for the weekend are going to come to fruition.

TWC had 46 for my high today. Highest I got was 37 lol we’ve reached peak heating for the day. Temps will start falling now.

[Cpv17]

I popped above freezing briefly... I'm back down to freezing.

I may not see it again until next weekend.

Where’s your location exactly? Are you in Magnolia or out in the country?

[Andrew]

My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...

I haven't seen it get above 35-36 here in Katy so far but my weather channel hourly forecast keeps trying to force it up to 43 lol. I don't think either highs in the 40s for the weekend are going to come to fruition.

TWC had 46 for my high today. Highest I got was 37 lol we’ve reached peak heating for the day. Temps will start falling now.

Models are really struggling with the shallowness of this cold air. I suspect this will be the case for much of the weekend.

[TexasBreeze]

The watches are out in Corpus and Austin/ San Antonio now and north too.