February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[djmike]

NWS LC just updated beaumonts weather. In short, ice, sleet, snow everyday starting sunday night till Thursday with a now low of 14 Tuesday morning.

[Kingwood36]

Anyone else's page moving up and down? And how can we fix it?

[txsnowmaker]

Don’t let Jeff’s update be a buzzkill lol. We’ll still get snow in Houston.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Don’t let Jeff’s update be a buzzkill lol. We’ll still get snow in Houston.

Why would Jeff's update be a buzzkill?

He used the NWS language which is going to be the bare minimum. I'd suspect that as we get closer, snow line gets moved south for y'all.

[Kingwood36]

Why are they saying ice accumulation is more North of Houston and less south of Houston? Wouldn't that be the other way around?

[Cpv17]

Don’t let Jeff’s update be a buzzkill lol. We’ll still get snow in Houston.

Why would Jeff's update be a buzzkill?

He used the NWS language which is going to be the bare minimum. I'd suspect that as we get closer, snow line gets moved south for y'all.

That will probably depend on just how fast the system moves and how far south it’ll dig.

[txsnowmaker]

Don’t let Jeff’s update be a buzzkill lol. We’ll still get snow in Houston.

Why would Jeff's update be a buzzkill?

He used the NWS language which is going to be the bare minimum. I'd suspect that as we get closer, snow line gets moved south for y'all.

The mention of “unfortunate,” emphasis on freezing rain, and implication that if you’re south of I-10 you’re less likely to see much in the way of snow.

[Cpv17]

Why are they saying ice accumulation is more North of Houston and less south of Houston? Wouldn't that be the other way around?

Basically they’re saying there will be more qpf north of 10 and not as much south of there. That’s why I’m saying we need this system to dig further south so all of southeast Texas can get more qpf. Hopefully more snow than ice though.

[Kingwood36]

Then why put ppl south of I 10 in the watch then..lol I don't doesn't make sense to me

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well the NAM and globals are trending south so that's in your favor.

[Cpv17]

Then why put ppl south of I 10 in the watch then..lol I don't doesn't make sense to me

Right now the models just aren’t showing much moisture to work with south of 10 unfortunately but there’s still time for that to change.

[Scott747]

Someone mentioned earlier that comparing this to a cat 5 hurricane was a bad analogy. It actually could be worse, especially with getting hit back to back.

The devastation could cripple the power grid for a few months depending on the extent of the icing.

[Kingwood36]

Then why put ppl south of I 10 in the watch then..lol I don't doesn't make sense to me

Right now the models just aren’t showing much moisture to work with south of 10 unfortunately but there’s still time for that to change.

Wasn't there suppose to be a low that formed in the gulf? How would that not spread more moisture south of i10

[Cpv17]

Then why put ppl south of I 10 in the watch then..lol I don't doesn't make sense to me

Right now the models just aren’t showing much moisture to work with south of 10 unfortunately but there’s still time for that to change.

Wasn't there suppose to be a low that formed in the gulf? How would that not spread more moisture south of i10

I’m not exactly 100% sure but I think that will be the surface low and then the main low (upper level) will track more over central/deep east Texas. The main upper low will need to dig further south pulling in deeper colder air. We need more of a Laredo to Galveston track with that low. Someone correct me if I’m wrong here.

[Dls2010r]

I will be honest. I’m in Santa Fe. The less precipitation is ok with me. This is gonna be bad. At this point it can trend North. Ice storms are no fun!

[Kingwood36]

I wouldn't be shocked if the take out the southern counties when it goes to a winter storm warning if there isn't much precipitation below I 10

[don]

Then why put ppl south of I 10 in the watch then..lol I don't doesn't make sense to me

Right now the models just aren’t showing much moisture to work with south of 10 unfortunately but there’s still time for that to change.

Wasn't there suppose to be a low that formed in the gulf? How would that not spread more moisture south of i10

Because its kinda like 2 systems in 1 ,theirs the upper level part of the storm moving in form the pacific northwest.Which triggers a surface reflection in the gulf (surface low). But sometimes if the main upper level energy doesn't quite match up with the surface low.You can get an area that gets dry slotted,as the upper level low kinda "robs" moisture for itself.And the lower level low in the gulf also concentrates moisture around itself.And whoever ends up in the middle of those two zones can be dry slotted.

[Dls2010r]

There not gonna take it out. The wind chill will be crazy here. The wind will be insane.

[Dls2010r]

I’ll take the dry slot

[Cpv17]

I wouldn't be shocked if the take out the southern counties when it goes to a winter storm warning if there isn't much precipitation below I 10

I think there will be a decent amount of precipitation south of 10 and especially out in the Gulf closer to the surface low and surface temps will be plenty cold enough to support snow but there will supposedly be a big warm nose south of 10 to limit the winter weather. I actually feel like the ice accumulations from freezing rain need to be increased south of 10 because I’m still expecting a decent amount of precipitation south of 10 and surface temps will be in the 20’s.