February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[DoctorMu]

That's a huge buzzkill Blake!

Meh, the Euro is out to pasture while all the rest of the models are in agreement.

Euro has sucked this week too.

Canadian, fwiw was the most accurate model for the Jan 10th system. Canadian is calling for snow down to HOU on Monday and ice storm on Wed/Thu...

[Cromagnum]

12z euro is cold with a low of 15 in Houston on Tuesday AM but a high of 37 lol. Keeps everything liquid here. Storm track is further north keeping the warm nose in place. Looks very similar to a few weeks ago when College Station got snow and Houston didn't. Interesting.

Hah. If our area can't get snow with a setup this good then we aren't getting a chance again.

[vci_guy2003]

12z euro is cold with a low of 15 in Houston on Tuesday AM but a high of 37 lol. Keeps everything liquid here. Storm track is further north keeping the warm nose in place. Looks very similar to a few weeks ago when College Station got snow and Houston didn't. Interesting.

Hah. If our area can't get snow with a setup this good then we aren't getting a chance again.

Truest words ever spoken.

[tireman4]

Remember gang ( using my Srain voice), models will flip flop ALOT on our way to this event. The trend is your friend....

[biggerbyte]

Isn't this cold airnass supposed to be shallow? Can't get snow from that. Sounds like an ice storm to me. If that is the case we better hope this event gets canceled.

[TexasBreeze]

I don't think getting freezing precip versus cold rain will be a problem. It is which frozen type that is harder to pin down. There is much more agreement on ice and sleet instead of snow here. Sleet can accumulate quickly. Like Jasons2k said, I would prepare for extended power outages made worse by teens temps. May turn over to snow with wrap around though once the system goes on top and past the area...

[Andrew]

Isn't this cold airnass supposed to be shallow? Can't get snow from that. Sounds like an ice storm to me. If that is the case we better hope this event gets canceled.

GFS and some of the more aggressive models indicate temps could quickly dip into the 20s Monday evening which could help to further reduce temperatures across the whole column. Plus when the area of low pressure tracks south and east of the region we will see even cooler temperatures filter south. Still, a lot of details to figure out but I do lean more towards the GFS solution than the ECMWF solution right now.

[TexasBreeze]

Just think too there are winter weather advisories not too far north currently with this weaker front from last night. Keep that in mind when the full blown arctic front comes through...

[Kingwood36]

Just think too there are winter weather advisories not too far north currently with this weaker front from last night. Keep that in mind when the full blown arctic front comes through...

When is this weaker front suppose to push off the coast?

[txsnowmaker]

I don’t buy the Euro solution. Trends have been colder with it though and suspect that continues.

[Andrew]

ECMWF:

GFS:

[Kingwood36]

ECMWF:
download (3).png


GFS:
download (4).png

Euro has to be on crack

[tireman4]

Remember, and Andrew, Blake, Belmer and Srain can correct me on this, models have a hard time with cold air ( the really dense air, and at times, the shallow pool), They tend, at times, to lose it and suddenly bring it back.

[don]

Folks like i said earlier the Euro is already folding towards the other models, i suspect in tonight's 0z run it will be close to the same page as the other models. I feel fairly confident that most of us will see primarily frozen precipitation on Monday.But what kind still remains to be seen.As temperatures wont be an issue with this event,as there will be too much cold air advection which will overpower any warm nose that develops. I expect precip may start off as rain for some briefly but quickly cool the air column and transition to freezing rain or sleet quickly.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My official forecast is 9 to 26 on Monday now... 70% chance of Snow and Sleet... freezing rain early morning hours

[Kingwood36]

I just want to take time out and say how much I appreciate this board and the people on it..im still learning about all this cool stuff and ppl here take time out and help me which is greatly appreciated! Also I'm thankful that this board is for local weather. I've tried to ask questions on s2k and they ignore it if it's about the Houston area. I guess that thread is mostly north texas cuz I rarely see anything regarding our area..I just wanted to say I'm grateful for the ppl who set this board up and co tinue to run it and make it such a great resource! Ok rant over lol

[Kingwood36]

My official forecast is 9 to 26 on Monday now... 70% chance of Snow and Sleet... freezing rain early morning hours

Where do you find the offical forecast for your area at?

[srainhoutx]

My official forecast is 9 to 26 on Monday now... 70% chance of Snow and Sleet... freezing rain early morning hours

Where do you find the offical forecast for your area at?

Go to NWS HGX website and click on your County in the general location where you live.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My official forecast is 9 to 26 on Monday now... 70% chance of Snow and Sleet... freezing rain early morning hours

Where do you find the offical forecast for your area at?

MOS

But official NWS, TWC and WU are similar

[TexasBreeze]

I just want to take time out and say how much I appreciate this board and the people on it..im still learning about all this cool stuff and ppl here take time out and help me which is greatly appreciated! Also I'm thankful that this board is for local weather. I've tried to ask questions on s2k and they ignore it if it's about the Houston area. I guess that thread is mostly north texas cuz I rarely see anything regarding our area..I just wanted to say I'm grateful for the ppl who set this board up and co tinue to run it and make it such a great resource! Ok rant over lol

The best part is that it is local. That forum is too busy during events and it really is north Tx centered. Missed questions is just the nature of things when the boards get hopping. Keep asking them here and it will be answered down the line, guaranteed! This busy forum traffic is just the beginning though.....