February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[jasons2k]

The freezing line has reached the coast - Surfside, Galveston, Bolivar are all at or below freezing now and the wind will be picking-up. Wow. Just wow.

[Rip76]

Na I think the complex of heavy snow in san antonio will overspread the entire area not just the northwestern counties

It sure seems to have that “Skirting, North of Houston,” look.

[TXWeatherMan]

Na I think the complex of heavy snow in san antonio will overspread the entire area not just the northwestern counties

Exactly. Everyone will get a lot of moisture, but the farther north you go the better chance you have for snow.

[don]

Now getting moderate to heavy sleet and snow accumulating everywhere here in the Heights. BTW the precip is probably 80% snow.

[Kingwood36]

Had freezing rain and sleet here no sign of snow yet..and now we seem to be dry slotted

[rselby0654]

It’s moving due west and it’s filling in out in front of it.

I see the same thing! The bands near kingsville are joining the massive band of snow in San Antonio. Therefore it’s literally a wall of snow that will be coming straight at us. I would say the whole viewing area is gonna get it big time!

[davidiowx]

Not sure what the skirting the NW viewing area is coming from.. radar says otherwise in a massive way. I have ice covering our street. The temp is dropping fast and the main line isn’t even here yet. Models are irrelevant right now.

[snowman65]

We arent seeing much of anything here yet. I guess we will see what things look like at daybreak.

[TexasBreeze]

It sure is moving quick! Looks to end by daybreak to me. If the heavier returns out west don't fill in further south, I could see the heaviest stuff skirting the nw part of the county like the hrrr is depicting. There are a lot of returns in front of it though so will see what happens. Also there is more sleet than anything currently and a temporary dry slot moving in too.

[Rip76]

It sure is moving quick! Looks to end by daybreak to me. If the heavier returns out west don't fill in further south, I could see the heaviest stuff skirting the nw part of the county like the hrrr is depicting. There are a lot of returns in front of it though so will see what happens. Also there is more sleet than anything currently and a temporary dry slot moving in too.

All of this is correct. Currently

[txsnowmaker]

Ahead of schedule here in SW Houston. No one was really expecting accumulating white precip this early, which is what is happening at this very moment.

[Rip76]

That area of snow near San Antonio does seem to be spreading out a little to the SW.

[txsnowmaker]

100% snow at 7 am according to Channel 11. David Paul says look out for thundersnow.

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Discussion 0083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas into central and southern
Louisiana

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 150453Z - 150900Z
SUMMARY...The development of scattered weak thunderstorm activity
and increasing precipitation rates are expected through 1-3 AM CST
across the Greater Houston Metropolitan area, and the remainder of
southeast Texas into southern and central Louisiana. This probably
will include freezing rain, at least initially, before changing over
to mostly sleet across southeast Texas into southwestern Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Sub-freezing surface air has reached southeast Texas
through south central Louisiana coastal areas, where lift associated
with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection is contributing to
developing convection and associated precipitation. Models suggest
that modest moistening in the 850-700 mb layer, coupled with
differential thermal advection aloft with the continued gradual
approach of a vigorous mid-level trough, may increasingly contribute
to destabilization supportive of convection capable of producing
lightning through the 07-09Z time frame. As this occurs, there
appears increasing potential for precipitation rates to occasionally
exceed .25 inches per hour.

With at least some further warming above the freezing mark ongoing
in the 850-700 mb layer, this precipitation may initially be in the
form of freezing rain, particularly in the more vigorous convection.
However, model output also indicates that the the sub-freezing
surface-based layer will also gradually deepen across southeastern
Texas into southwestern Louisiana during this time. This is
expected to be accompanied by increasing probabilities for
precipitation to change over to sleet (and probably snow north of a
College Station/Lufkin TX line by 09Z).

[jasons2k]

A lot of us are wedged between the snow MCD and the “mixed precipitation” MCD...

[Andrew]

It sure is moving quick! Looks to end by daybreak to me. If the heavier returns out west don't fill in further south, I could see the heaviest stuff skirting the nw part of the county like the hrrr is depicting. There are a lot of returns in front of it though so will see what happens. Also there is more sleet than anything currently and a temporary dry slot moving in too.

All of this is correct. Currently

If anything this system has already outperformed. Most models indicated freezing rain until the last couple of hours so seeing sleet this early is just a bonus. The bulk of the system is still way west and last I checked it's still tracking to the east. Models have always indicated the highest snow totals would remain northwest of the city.

[snowman65]

Honestly at this point I hope I wake up to nothing lol

[Stratton20]

Honestly if the heavy snow misses my area im literally just gonna cry

[Cromagnum]

Looks like all the precipitation is already gone and the big system out west is progged to miss Houston to the north side. Lame.

[Ace]

Boooo. NWS and Weather Underground has Spring getting 1-3 total through Tuesday morning. I guess it really is glancing Northwards?