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Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:55 pm
by 869MB
HRRR Sounding 01Z Run - Valid 07Z.png

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:02 pm
by jasons2k
In response to some friends on S2K:

I'm glad some of y'all are enjoying the snow. I hope we get some on Thursday as a parting shot. It's looking a little better on the HRRR.

In the meantime, I am closely watching temperature trends for the ice storm about to impact SE and East Texas. It's going to be just epic for some folks to the North and especially NE of here. We are right on the edge. A serious demarcation between ice and rain, and thus, the accumulation totals. The HRRR keeps going back and forth between a little ice nuisance and the ice storm apocalypse for me in southern Montgomery County, so it's just waiting and watching the temperature/dew point spread until it starts falling down over here.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:05 pm
by don
FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:04 pm
by Cpv17
don wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:05 pm FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.
My dew point is 22° here temp is 29°.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:08 pm
by megsy
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:04 pm
don wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:05 pm FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.
My dew point is 22° here temp is 29°.
22 here too (was at 19 a couple hours ago) and temp at 32.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:40 pm
by Andrew
Hey everyone, been a busy couple of days. How is everyone doing? I hope those without power have found ways to stay warm! We just need to get through Thursday and we should be in the clear.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:00 am
by Sloth
Andrew wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:40 pm Hey everyone, been a busy couple of days. How is everyone doing? I hope those without power have found ways to stay warm! We just need to get through Thursday and we should be in the clear.
Doing good. Making al pastor tacos in the backyard. Electricity is on, but I'll take no chances to miss a warm meal once the power goes out again :D

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:21 am
by jasons2k
The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen too.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:28 am
by tsb2107
jasons2k wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:21 am The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen.
Spring here...does this mean a small window for freezing rain for the northern parts of the county?

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:32 am
by jasons2k
tsb2107 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:28 am
jasons2k wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:21 am The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen.
Spring here...does this mean a small window for freezing rain for the northern parts of the county?
If you mean Harris county, it depends on how far east or west you are. The line is generally along 59, but with the low where it is, it has a steep arc to it.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:55 am
by jasons2k
Pretty amazing..steep temp gradient already

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:08 am
by tsb2107
Been holding steady at 34 for the last couple of hours.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:21 am
by Andrew
Sloth wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:00 am
Andrew wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:40 pm Hey everyone, been a busy couple of days. How is everyone doing? I hope those without power have found ways to stay warm! We just need to get through Thursday and we should be in the clear.
Doing good. Making al pastor tacos in the backyard. Electricity is on, but I'll take no chances to miss a warm meal once the power goes out again :D
Glad you are doing well Sloth. Get your grub on haha. Hopefully, we will be closer to normal this weekend.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:21 am
by Andrew
Sitting at 33/32 here NW of the loop. Dewpoints have risen several degrees. Looks like I will be right on the line of freezing rain versus cold rain.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:41 am
by DoctorMu
25 degrees. Freezing rain, sleet, snow mix. Hello black ice!

Rolling blackouts continue.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:51 am
by jasons2k
DoctorMu wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:41 am 25 degrees. Freezing rain, sleet, snow mix. Help black one!

Rolling blackouts continue.
And so it begins - good luck. 32.2 here, dew point 25. The gap is closing...

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:03 am
by jasons2k
Power out

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:34 am
by snowman65
I don't know about everyone else but I'm ready to close the books on this past 4 days.

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:35 am
by BlueJay
snowman65 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:34 am I don't know about everyone else but I'm ready to close the books on this past 4 days.
Me Too!

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:55 am
by Kingwood36
I thought I'd NEVER say this...but...is it summer yet?