February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:40 am
TxLady wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:30 am
Did you lose power with a whole house generator? We are thinking of purchasing one.
No, mine automatically switches over to running on propane. Because we are "rural", we don't have city utilities (water, natural gas, etc). So, ours is Propane. Honestly, one of the best investments, ever.
Now seriously thinking about a natural gas or propane generator. Am worried about the cost but...
I bought a Generac 22KW standby generator with an auto transition switch last March. Runs on natural gas. Ran the entire house through this ordeal.first outage was 24 hours. Then they were several hours. Several outages. Worth every penny.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5696
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

sambucol wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:55 am
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:40 am
TxLady wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:30 am

No, mine automatically switches over to running on propane. Because we are "rural", we don't have city utilities (water, natural gas, etc). So, ours is Propane. Honestly, one of the best investments, ever.
Now seriously thinking about a natural gas or propane generator. Am worried about the cost but...
I bought a Generac 22KW standby generator with an auto transition switch last March. Runs on natural gas. Ran the entire house through this ordeal.first outage was 24 hours. Then they were several hours. Several outages. Worth every penny.
Crunched the numbers again - need a 36W - 11K without installation.
bdog38
Posts: 56
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:30 pm
Contact:

whats up with radar? sleet and snow right outside of houston some is already here.
skidog48
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:01 pm
sambucol wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:55 am
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:40 am

Now seriously thinking about a natural gas or propane generator. Am worried about the cost but...
I bought a Generac 22KW standby generator with an auto transition switch last March. Runs on natural gas. Ran the entire house through this ordeal.first outage was 24 hours. Then they were several hours. Several outages. Worth every penny.
Crunched the numbers again - need a 36W - 11K without installation.
I’m thinking you meant a 36kw generator. 22KW is the largest in the residential line, but they do have commercial ones that would most likely meet your need.
art3
Posts: 21
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:48 pm
Contact:

Thinking of generac also. Dad on cpap and I have autoimmune issues. Idk though looks expensive. Also in sw houston will the freeze require drip again?
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

art3 wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:06 pm Thinking of generac also. Dad on cpap and I have autoimmune issues. Idk though looks expensive. Also in sw houston will the freeze require drip again?
If a standby generator is a medical necessity, ask his physician to write a letter stating that. From what I understand it is a tax deductible medical expense when you file your return for the year you bought it and installed it.
art3
Posts: 21
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:48 pm
Contact:

Hmm really? Will check
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5401
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

I want one, but I need to build swimming pool 2.0 first.

Hopefully this year is the year.
davidiowx
Posts: 1063
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

The snow is so close, yet so far. Doesn't look like it will make it here after all.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4488
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

davidiowx wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:23 pm The snow is so close, yet so far. Doesn't look like it will make it here after all.
You never know
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5696
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

sambucol wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:39 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:01 pm
sambucol wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:55 am
I bought a Generac 22KW standby generator with an auto transition switch last March. Runs on natural gas. Ran the entire house through this ordeal.first outage was 24 hours. Then they were several hours. Several outages. Worth every penny.
Crunched the numbers again - need a 36W - 11K without installation.
I’m thinking you meant a 36kw generator. 22KW is the largest in the residential line, but they do have commercial ones that would most likely meet your need.

Right. 36kW. I'm finally off my phone. I saw a number of Generacs at that power level.


Snow on the radar. Mostly verga on the ground in College Station. I saw a few flakes an hour ago.
User avatar
nlosrgr8
Posts: 21
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 8:19 am
Location: Sugar Land (First Colony), TX
Contact:

We have the big Generac whole House ...ran like a champ! It has provided us with a lot of peace of mind. If peace of mind is worth the price to you then you should invest. Be sure you keep up with the maintenance.
Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine.
Anthony J. D'Angelo
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5401
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

BlueJay wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:33 am Thanks for this post Jason! Your story about your son's Yahtzee success made me smile! :)
Yeah, best part of the whole ordeal. Hehe. That and our little snowman.

Glad you made it through!
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4488
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 182338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Skies have scattered out IAH southward bringing VFR conditions
that will prevail for these sites through the rest of the period.
A band of clouds extends CXO northward continuing the MVFR
conditions there with CIGs around 1500-2000ft. However, these
clouds will erode through the night bringing VFR conditions to the
entire area by midnight. Tonight will be another very cold night
across the region, so icing will be a concern from any lingering
moisture. Northerly winds will prevail through the period with
sustained winds 15-20kts through sunset, then decreasing below
10kts by midnight for all sites but GLS which will have the
moderate flow through tomorrow. High pressure building over the
area tomorrow will mean the clearing skies and VFR conditions will
continue.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 343 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Snow flurries developed across the northern half of the area today
and these will end as drier air moves into the region from the NW.
With the drier air, skies will also begin to clear and once skies
clear and winds decouple, temperatures are going to take a tumble.
High pressure will build into West Texas and drift toward
east Texas toward morning. The cold air mass associated with the
high will once again settle over SE TX with MiNT values falling into
the teens over the north, low/mid 20`s central and south and low
30`s along the coast. A Hard Freeze Warning will remain in effect
tonight for most of SE TX with 6 to 8 hours of temperatures at or
below 25 degrees. A Wind Chill Advisory has also been issued
over the NW-W zones with WC values falling into the single digits
later tonight.

Friday will trend slightly warmer, or maybe it`ll just feel a bit
better with sunny skies and less wind. Surface high pressure will
settle directly over SE TX by Fri afternoon with MaxT values ranging
from the mid 30`s far NW zones to the mid 40`s far southern zones
and coast.

Another night of very cold temperatures is expected Fri Night into
Sat morning as the surface high drifts east. Clear skies, light
winds and dry air will allow ideal radiational cooling to commence
and produce MinT values near 20 degrees far NW zones and mid/upper
20`s elsewhere. A Hard freeze Watch is in effect for the NW zones
for tomorrow night. 43


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

In what will be a welcomed change for SE TX, a warming trend is
expected heading into the weekend with an end to subfreezing
temperatures now in sight. As high pressure departs eastward and a
return to onshore winds allows for enhanced WAA, we should finally
break into the 50s on Saturday. While lows overnight will remain
below normal, it`ll be the first time in quite a while where no
subfreezing temperatures are anticipated across the entirety of SE
TX. The warming trend continues on Sunday with temperatures
pushing closer to near-seasonable values- the upper 50s across the
northern counties and low to mid 60s along the coast and in the
Houston metro.

The approach of a surface cold front on Sunday night/early Monday
morning will bring a slight cool-down to the area, though the
magnitude of this boundary passage will not come close to
approaching what we have seen over the past several days. Lows on
Sunday night dip back into the 30s/40s, though I have continued
not to carry any subfreezing temperatures in the forecast (though
CLL and surrounding areas will get close). Global models remain
bearish regarding the possibility of showers to encounter the
front, with the NAM/EC/GFS all indicating marginal QPF. Have
maintained slight chance PoPs as a result.

High pressure briefly enters the picture on Monday with offshore
winds providing CAA and allowing for daytime highs to return to
the 50s. However, this surface feature should depart quickly and a
return to southerlies can be expected on Tuesday afternoon.
Warming will continue into mid week with most locations seeing the
70s by Wednesday. A deepening lee cyclone may drag our next cold
front into SE TX on Thursday, though the timing of this feature
and magnitude of any associated precipitation looks more uncertain
for the time being.

Cady


.MARINE...

With a tight surface pressure gradient continuing to produce winds
of around 20 to 25 knots across the bays and coastal waters, the
Small Craft Advisories previously set to expire this afternoon
have been extended into the evening. Both winds and seas will be
on a downward trend tomorrow, decreasing below caution criteria
during the afternoon. Calmer conditions are expected through the
weekend as departing high pressure loosens the surface gradient
and an onshore flow pattern develops.

We are monitoring the potential for marine fog on Saturday evening
into Sunday. While probabilistic guidance does not indicate
reduced visibilities during this time, water temperatures are
currently low (46 degF at the Galveston Bay Entrance) which will
lend favorable to fog development if sufficient warming does not
occur prior to the development of onshore winds over the weekend.

A second but weaker surface cold front will approach the coastal
waters on Monday, after which winds and seas may increase as the
boundary departs. That being said, moderate offshore winds are
unlikely to persist for very long and any caution/advisory level
conditions should be short-lived.

Cady


.CLIMATE...

It`s been cold, really cold over the last seven days, but how does
it rank historically? Here is the average temperature for the four
first order climate sites over the last seven days (Feb 11 - Feb 17)

City of Houston

29.7 1895
30.1 1899
32.5 2021
38.6 1905
41.6 1958

City of Galveston

31.3 1895
37.6 1899
39.7 2021
40.1 1905
43.3 1958

College Station

24.6 1899
25.9 2021
29.1 1895
39.4 1958
41.9 2010

Houston Hobby

34.3 2021
41.6 1958
43.7 1963
44.5 2010
45.6 1981

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 17 35 20 48 38 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 24 44 27 55 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 33 46 40 56 53 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
for the following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington.

Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday for
the following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Montgomery...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5401
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Down to 29. I'm glad I drained my pipes again for tonight.
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

this thread, exactly: https://twitter.com/BillyForney3/status ... 0332223489

his is one of the most uplifting, always positive, community-oriented, weather-related Twitter feeds I read on a regular basis and he nailed how I feel in this situation perfectly.

Sometimes it helps to share/know others share your feelings of distress,. It seems to lighten the load, lessen the tightness in your chest, help unclench your jaw. There are millions of our fellow Texans feeling the same stress, I hope all our weather board posters and readers are making it through to the other side of this disaster - I wish you all well

Be Safe
Be Kind
Be Strong
CrashTestDummy
Posts: 187
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:44 pm
Location: Pearland, Texas
Contact:

cperk wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:18 am
TxLady wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:01 am
What brand is your generator?
I have a 20Kw Generac Brand.
If i had gas in my subdivision i would own one unfortunately we are all electric.
Are you sure you don't? We're all electric, and wanted to get a stand-by primarily for after hurricane outages. I discovered we had a gas line running across our front yard. Our installer managed getting the gas run to the house for the generator install. 100% turn-key. We got a 20Kw Kohler unit, and paid for the extended maintenance. I wanted the Easy Button while we could afford it.

We lost power Wednesday morning, and it was out until Wednesday night. Saw a couple of other neighbors bring portable generators in and set them up. One of our immdiate neighbors has a big water-cooled unit on their compound. Those are nice because they're so quiet.

Having that thing start right after our UPS started beeping, indicating our power had gone, was so nice to hear! As others say, it provided great peace of mind. It was something less to worry about through all this. We got ours installed now, since we're both still working, and could afford it. We discovered after Ike, that we could do without a lot of stuff, but water was not one of them, and the daily water/gas fetch process got old in a hurry. We have a well, so with power, we have water, and that's of primary importance.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

unome wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:20 am this thread, exactly: https://twitter.com/BillyForney3/status ... 0332223489

his is one of the most uplifting, always positive, community-oriented, weather-related Twitter feeds I read on a regular basis and he nailed how I feel in this situation perfectly.

Sometimes it helps to share/know others share your feelings of distress,. It seems to lighten the load, lessen the tightness in your chest, help unclench your jaw. There are millions of our fellow Texans feeling the same stress, I hope all our weather board posters and readers are making it through to the other side of this disaster - I wish you all well

Be Safe
Be Kind
Be Strong
Thanks unome. Well said.
btw, glad you're back in the forum.

Enjoy the SUNSHINE y'all! 8-)
redneckweather
Posts: 1023
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Kohler unit here at the house as well. It was recommended over the generac. Definitely a must if you can afford it.

The great thaw of 2021 begins today. Enjoy the sunshine everyone.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5401
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

24.4 here this morning. Our friends in Austin still don’t have water. I’m glad things begin to warm up today. I’ve never been so ready for spring!!
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Semrush [Bot] and 72 guests