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Mississippi and Alabama getting walloped already and they are saying it's going to be much worse this evening.

This will be a long night

It looks like that storm turned into a pretty good squall. I thought that pretty much ended the Tornado threat once the squall hits. Is something coming in behind it for them?

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:31 pm It looks like that storm turned into a pretty good squall. I thought that pretty much ended the Tornado threat once the squall hits. Is something coming in behind it for them?

Doesn't eliminate the tornado threat, but reduces it. Can still get tornadoes embedded within the squall line out ahead of it. Nothing else behind the main line will redevelop as that is the frontal boundary. Focus for tornadoes overnight will be into eastern AL, GA and then the Carolina's tomorrow.

Cool satellite imagery.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WVTM13/statu ... 2305842177

Serious advection this afternoon and tonight up in BCS.

25WNW 35G

About 1/2 inch of rain this morning.

Looks like dry, sunny Chamber of Commerce weather for the next 3 days

There’s a chance that most of the rain for next week could be north and east of southeast TX once again.

Chamber of Commerce weekend dialed up.

We need to keep an eye on next week as the GFS shows a possible multi day tornado setup locally with moderate to high CAPE,as disturbances ride a stalled frontal boundary.Especially as the main surface low moves inland over the area with a warm front.Not expecting any widespread flooding right now but locally heavy rain definitely cannot be ruled out either. Any stormy weather we get next week will ultimately depend on the location of the stalled boundary and track of the main upper level trough.

we really need the rain - can do without the tornadoes

https://www.drought.gov/states/texas

I just see rain this week. What was the concern with severe weather?

SPC Extended outlook has the eastern half of southeast Texas in risk of severe weather. The worst of the weather should be over dixie alley, but discreet supercells cannot be ruled out even here locally due to moderate shear and moderate CAPE values.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thu - Eastern TX to the Central Gulf Coast States...

An upper shortwave trough over the Rio Grande/northern Mexico will
strengthen and become negatively tilted as it ejects northeast
across the Arklatex through Thursday evening, and to the Ohio Valley
by Friday morning. Intense shear will overspread the south-central
and southern U.S. ahead of the trough. Furthermore, strong low-level
warm advection will result in a broad warm sector ahead of a
deepening surface low and eastward-advancing cold front from the
Sabine Valley eastward across the central Gulf coast/TN Valley
vicinity.

Differences in the evolution of the surface low across the lower MS
and OH Valleys are still apparent in medium-range guidance. This is
mainly resulting in uncertainty in the position of the surface low
and cold front Thursday morning, and how far east each of these
features progresses by Friday morning. As a result, changes in
severe probabilities, especially on the western and northeastern
edges, are likely in the coming days. Nevertheless, weak to moderate
instability will overlap with favorable shear parameters and an
overall supportive pattern for severe convection. A couple of rounds
of severe storms could be possible, as some warm-sector development
may occur across the Lower MS Valley before a QLCS develops along
the surging cold front during the evening/nighttime hours. All
severe hazards will be possible with discrete warm-sector
supercells. Potential for damaging gusts and tornadoes will becoming
preferential with any upscale development along the cold front.

Models aren’t looking good for rain over the next week or two especially south of I-10.

Seeing talk of "mud showers" tonight. I just washed my truck before this evenings popcorn showers rolled through to get a free rinse. Guess that's going to be pointless afterall.

Hill Country was pretty bumpy last night.

Houston's turn for the AM commute.


...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GALVESTON...SOUTHEASTERN FORT
BEND...NORTHERN BRAZORIA...SOUTHWESTERN CHAMBERS AND SOUTHERN HARRIS
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

At 601 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strenghtening strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Sienna Plantation to near
Brazos Bend State Park. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pearland, League City, southeastern Missouri City, Galveston
Causeway, Galveston Island West End, Texas City, Friendswood, Alvin,
Dickinson, La Marque, Santa Fe, southwestern Seabrook, Webster,
Hitchcock, Manvel, Kemah, Fresno, southern Clear Lake, Nassau Bay and
Danbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

That was an intense thunderstorm here in Cypress in Fairfield. Haven’t seen lightening like that in a long time.

Lots of lightning here but managed only .28”

The ingredients are there for some pretty strong storms but the situation is conditional based on rather the cap can break or not this Thursday.I think the cap may hold for now.

don wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:02 pm The ingredients are there for some pretty strong storms but the situation is conditional based on rather the cap can break or not this Thursday.I think the cap may hold for now.

Ah there it is. I was waiting for that three-letter curse word to show up. Seems like we could've had a few rounds of severe weather with the recent setups of fronts and boundaries, but seems like the cap has kept that tampered down.

We've seen what can occur when the cap busts along the gulf coast (Dixie Alley, my goodness), but we don't see similar setups here. I can gather some of the differences between here and say West Texas/Panhandle and the like because we don't see the dry line and those types of dynamics. But I would gather that our conditions would mimic, to some extent, those in Dixie Alley. Our cap seems to be a bit more stout seems like one factor, but that's just speculation. Bit of a headscratcher for me.

We are closer to the dry Mexican highlands and SW flow aloft from there brings-in the cap.

SW flow aloft over much of “Dixie” is from the Gulf....moist, not hot and dry.

And yes there are often better jet dynamics to the north of here. One reason why the storms are so intense in OK, KS, AR, etc.

Thursday will be a close call. A few hours and a few degrees either way could make a big difference. I hope the system slows down just a tad and crosses later in the day, giving us a better chance of rain. One can hope...