QPF! Then I saw the dates. Lol. First thing I thought of when it pulled up was that looks like a tropical storm or hurricane track. Well it probably is but the dates are wrong!
Also for a minute I thought man thats a complete 180 in one update. Anyway, they will probably fix it shortly.
12z EURO came in pretty wet, while the GFS is much drier over the area.Models are still struggling on how to handle the upper level low over the sate this week.There is a big difference in the qpf amounts the models are projecting currently over the area.
don wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:58 pm
12z EURO came in pretty wet, while the GFS is much drier over the area.Models are still struggling on how to handle the upper level low over the sate this week.There is a big difference in the qpf amounts the models are projecting currently over the area.
I'm going to put my money on the GFS... Prove me wrong upper level low!
The GFS has caved towards the EURO.All of the global models are now showing the cutoff low slowly moving across the state.Still have to iron out qpf amounts though which are very hard to pinpoint with these setups.As a lot of it is driven by mesoscale features with this kind of setup.But a good trend overnight non the less.
don wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:48 am
The GFS has caved towards the EURO.All of the global models are now showing the cutoff low slowly moving across the state.Still have to iron out qpf amounts though which are very hard to pinpoint with these setups.As a lot of it is driven by mesoscale features with this kind of setup.But a good trend overnight non the less.
There’s still a lot of difference between the Euro and GFS in regards to qpf amounts.
don wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:48 am
The GFS has caved towards the EURO.All of the global models are now showing the cutoff low slowly moving across the state.Still have to iron out qpf amounts though which are very hard to pinpoint with these setups.As a lot of it is driven by mesoscale features with this kind of setup.But a good trend overnight non the less.
There’s still a lot of difference between the Euro and GFS in regards to qpf amounts.
Yep, the WPC's discussion this morning has a good summary on why there's a difference in general qpf amounts over the area.The potential is there for some to get excessive rainfall with this setup, but its nearly impossible to pinpoint this far out where those locations may be due to the mesocale driven nature of the setup.
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 30 2021 - 12Z Sat May 01 2021
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...
The upper level low over northern Mexico/southern High Plains
should remain rather stationary over the region during the day 3
period/Friday while a surface boundary is draped along the Gulf
Coast and back into far south Texas. Anomalous moisture will be
advected east of the upper low pooling along the boundary to fuel
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall. The latest 00z guidance shows some differences in
frontal placement, especially across far eastern/coastal Texas
with some potential the heaviest QPF stays offshore completely.
Just given the overall setup favorable for locally heavy to
excessive rains, a marginal risk was drawn across southern/eastern
Texas into northern and central Louisiana but the model
uncertainty precludes the inclusion of anything more than just a
marginal at this time.
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:21 am
"Points South of I-10" need to be the target this time.
i think we have had one good storm of 1+" since the freeze here in Cypress (A strong night time thunderstorm back in March). The forecast have continuously called out for areas north of I10 to get 1-2" of rain for a couple months now with each system and its continued to not provide here in Cypress.
12z GFS has trended substantially wetter for southeast Texas,especially for the central and coastal counties.Looks to be two convergence zones setting up with the upper level low, one in central Texas, and another one across coastal Texas.Lets see if the trends continue...
don wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:55 am
12z GFS has trended substantially wetter for southeast Texas,especially for the central and coastal counties.Looks to be two convergence zones setting up with the upper level low, one in central Texas, and another one across coastal Texas.Lets see if the trends continue...
djmike wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:49 pm
Not holding my breath...
lol I'm just trying to catch my breath. The Dewpoint rose to 71°F this afternoon and humidity is out of control. Just arrived home and put on a tank top and cranked up the ceiling fan in the home office. YUCK!
Guess I better get used to it until October.
Even DPs in the low 60s with a breeze the last few days was tolerable.
QPF! Then I saw the dates. Lol. First thing I thought of when it pulled up was that looks like a tropical storm or hurricane track. Well it probably is but the dates are wrong!
