Re: April 2021
Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:42 pm
Ruh roh - best I could draw on my phone
jason - those are some decently high SigTor probabilities. the ingredients seem like they'll definitely be there for things to get a bit sporty if/when capping can be overcome especially with the amount of shear that will be in place. think SPC will upgrade the outlook to have a small bullseye of moderate risk a day out?
If it does that, I'll be dragging the hose around again on Saturday.unome wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 3:05 pm Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021
...
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 23 2021 - 12Z Sat Apr 24 2021
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...
There continues to be a strong signal for a heavy rainfall event
developing over eastern Texas and Oklahoma that spreads east
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and the central Gulf Coast
states. PW values build to 1.5"+ (nearing 2 standard deviations
above normal for late April) along the Gulf Coast while continuing
to transport northward into the central U.S.
A low pressure system exiting the Rockies will track across the
southern tier states, lifting a warm front up the Mississippi
Valley while a cold front sweeps in a few hours later. The upper
level jet will be passing overhead and provide divergence
aloft/enhanced vertical motion in the low/mid levels of the
atmosphere. Low-level inflow rises to 40-60 knots (with effective
bulk shear to match), close to the value of the mean 850-400 hPa
wind. Instability will be increasing across the Southern Plains
ahead of the cold front with CAPE values of 1500+ J/Kg supporting
periods of heavy rainfall.
There is some degree of spread on where the maximum values will
occur, but the overall consensus suggests a fairly large area
where 2-4 inches will fall with very isolated maximums of 5-6
inches possible. Although some locations have had several days to
recover from recent soaking rains, rain of this magnitude may
quickly become problematic, thus increasing the threat for flash
flooding. The Slight Risk area was slightly reshaped for this
update, but remains about the same. The Marginal Risk area spans
from eastern Texas to Alabama and from central Oklahoma into the
Midwest. The LCH/Lake Charles LA, SHV/Shreveport LA, and
LIX/Slidell LA forecast offices were consulted in this update.
Roth/Campbell
I'll be happy with 1/2"
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I sure hope that’s the case I’ve sent two back breaking days filling in low spots in my yard with bank sand.
I know. I've drug my sprinkler out several times this spring already. My ground is cracked everywhere.