Wx Infinity Forums

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:02 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:57 am Great. More "North of I-10" crap.

It won’t be long before the summer season is here and the convection is more focused along the coast (or just offshore). Then we’ll be the ones complaining about the heat and praying for a sea breeze shower.

lol Yeah, I was going to say wait until summer. Sometime in June the spigot turns off and we never see the sea breeze north of Brenham or Navasota.

Went to bed with a dew point of 60f.
Dew point is now 69f and steadily rising.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:57 am Great. More "North of I-10" crap.

I’m right there with you. This looks to be a nonevent south of I-10. Frustrating. I’m still holding on to some hope though. Some models still show we could get around half an inch so I’ll gladly take that if we can get it.

Irs suppose to clear out by tonight and leave the wknd nice right?

Yes, the weekend will be nice after today.I think it's going to be a pretty active day around here.The impulse triggering showers right now around the coastal bend region will be the trigger for thunderstorms later this afternoon.Im also a little concerned with street flooding issues in urban areas if we start to see storms redeveloping over the same areas like the HRRR is showing.

Yes, should be a nice weekend.

I’m not sure what model The Weather Channel’s ‘Storm Radar’ app runs from but it shows things blowing-up about 2pm in the warm sector with a squall line forming to the NW into the evening.

Watch coming for portions of Central and N Central Texas in an hour or two...

don wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:00 am Yes, the weekend will be nice after today.I think it's going to be a pretty active day around here.The impulse triggering showers right now around the coastal bend region will be the trigger for thunderstorms later this afternoon.Im also a little concerned with street flooding issues in urban areas if we start to see storms redeveloping over the same areas like the HRRR is showing.

Pulses seem North and West of Hwy 59 mostly.

We could end up in the gap between the streamer showers and broken dry line. Would not be surprised to see 0.5 inches or less. We'll see.

yup, getting all kinds of busy now

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx
https://twitter.com/NWSSPC

The severe t-storm watch is just west of us and most of the HGX area. Hoping for soaking. Expecting a near bust.

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX12619B18117C.SevereThunderstormWatch.12619B24D510TX.WNSWOU8.65b40533d93ad5e14db070063903e710 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 12:35 CDT on 04-23-2021
Effective: 12:40 CDT on 04-23-2021
Expires: 20:00 CDT on 04-23-2021
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Alert:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TX

. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ARCHER BASTROP
BELL BLANCO BOSQUE
BURNET CALDWELL CLAY
COLLIN COMAL COMANCHE
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FALLS
FANNIN FAYETTE FREESTONE
GRAYSON HAMILTON HAYS
HENDERSON HILL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JACK
JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR
LAMPASAS LEE LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM
MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO
PALO PINTO PARKER RAINS
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL SOMERVELL
STEPHENS TARRANT TRAVIS
VAN ZANDT WICHITA WILLIAMSON
WISE YOUNG

Looking interesting for SE TX this afternoon and evening with the main concern N and NE of Houston and ETX.

Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Areas affected...portions of east/southeast Texas into western
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 231743Z - 231945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes,
damaging gusts and hail are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...A strong low-level warm advection regime continues
across east Texas into western LA early this afternoon. A warm front
is draped northwest-to-southeast from central TX into southwest LA
per 17z surface analysis. This front should continue to gradually
lift northward over the next several hours. Dewpoints will increase
to the mid 60s to low 70s F near and south of the front,
contributing to increasing low-level instability. Forecasts
currently increase 0-3 km CAPE to around 100-150 J/kg after 20z in a
corridor near the warm front, with mixing ratios around 15-16 g/kg.
Additionally, the front will further augment already favorable
low-level wind profiles suitable for tornadoes. As a
south/southwesterly low-level jet increases to 50+ kt toward 00z,
some upscale growth into one or more bowing segments is possible.
This could increase damaging wind potential. Even as storm mode
evolves, low-level hodographs will remain favorable for mesovortex
formation and a continuation of a tornado threat with eastward
extent into western LA.

.70" hail report near New Braunfels.

Cap is busting.

Hrr is struggling

https://twitter.com/NWSSevereTstorm

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Lockhart TX, Redwood TX, Martindale TX until 2:15 PM CDT

This setup doesn't happen too often around here, this would kind of be considered a high shear low cape setup,usually its the other way around here locally .With most severe weather events being high cape but low shear events.

Special balloon launch from College Station...

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:47 pm Special balloon launch from College Station...

will you interpret for us soundings-challenged weather-boardsters

unome wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:51 pm

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:47 pm Special balloon launch from College Station...

will you interpret for us soundings-challenged weather-boardsters

The Cap is razor thin. Looks like enough veering with height for rotating updraft. Hail production Looks possible as well. Stay weather wise this afternoon everyone!

I know this is for NWS Fort Worth's AOR, but it does pan out to our NW reaches just to get some perspective. It'd be nice if HGX had something similar. Experimental as it may be, still interesting to keep an eye on.

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/convectiveparameters

Srain, would you mind helping explain a little of what's in that Skew-T? Am I seeing a cap with high shear and decent CAPE?

ETA: Thanks unome for also asking similar question and srain responding.