Wx Infinity Forums

Forecast models often change.

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:10 pm Forecast models often change.

No doubt. Hope the mesoscales trend better for rain!

Wow, that storm headed towards San Antonio is a beast! 3 to 4 inch diameter hail with a hook signature on the southern side. Yikes

And a similar one in beast mode barreling through the metroplex. No joke on yikes

Give me the rain, hold the baseball sized hail and tornadoes.

With this type of setup over the next few days someone is going to get a lot of rain. Pinpointing exact locations right now will be impossible. Looks like everyone in SETX is in play right now.

Seems like the Hill Country has been catching bad night time severe weather a lot lately.

Finally more well needed rainfall across SE TX on the way through the weekend.

Ok time to start watching this more carefully as some models are showing some hefty rainfall totals.GFS is showing up to a foot of rain within the next 72 hours for some locations.With multiple rounds of heavy rain over the weekend, and even with the drought situation a flash flood watch may be needed if the trends continue.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...

A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms out ahead of the front
working in from the southwest. The cold front runs from around Grand
Prairie to Llano to close to Laredo at 5 am and sagging very slowly
southeastward. The front should move into the CWA this afternoon and
stall. The front then wobbles around tonight and could sag to the
coast but at this point looks it will stall just inland. Rain
chances will be increasing through the afternoon as showers become
more common and then as a lead shortwave arrives expect some garden
variety thunderstorms to become a bit more common tonight and
Friday. Some potential for brief heavy downpours after midnight and
through the day Friday with slow moving storms. Profiles aloft
should be wet but warm and so instability will be lacking. Much of
the northern area will be getting rainfall today then early Friday
morning central and south. This should do wonders for taking a chunk
out of the drought. Temperatures today and Friday will be cooler
with the cloud cover and rain but still warm nights.

Yesterday record high minimums at College Station and
Intercontinental beating 1970 and 1994 respectively.

45

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...

Sat should be starting off rather active with the ongoing passage
of a potent upper level shortwave. Progs of a diffluent jet struc-
ture aloft along with PWs ranging from 1.5-1.9 inches are hinting
at some decent rainfall amounts across much of SE TX for Sat with
training storms. We`ll get a brief break from these rains by late
Sat afternoon/evening as the disturbance moves off to the NE, but
widespread showers/thunderstorms should return Sat night/Sun morn-
ing as the main upper trof/low moves in from the west. Due to the
proximity of this system (and the strong dynamics associated with
it), strong/possibly severe thunderstorms could accompany all the
widespread rainfall. And because this might be a possible second
bout of moderate/heavy rains, we`ll need to keep an eye on flash
flood and/or flood issues for this time frame. Stay tuned!

Bring it! We need it! Don’t bust on us now!

HRRR is picking up on the heavy rainfall tomorrow, and shows a slow moving MCS over southeast Texas tomorrow morning. And another impulse in the afternoon. Stay weather aware.

Satellite shows a period of sun coming-up for the next few hours - that should heat things up for later today. I think there may be a bit more instability than expected with the sun coming out.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:29 am Satellite shows a period of sun coming-up for the next few hours - that should heat things up for later today. I think there may be a bit more instability than expected with the sun coming out.

Our good friend Captain Cap will keep it in check have no fear! Haha hope we get some showers blossoming this afternoon

This afternoon should be interesting. However, the air outside looks a lot more stable than yesterday. No sun out. I'm calling bust...for today at least. We'll see.

Moderate CAPE, lowish shear. IF we get anything it should be a light, moderate rain today.

A lot of dry, mid level air over the Hill Country today on GOES.



https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

We'll see what daytime heating brings. If anything looks favorable it's actually SOUTH of HWY Unmentionable.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:45 am Moderate CAPE, lowish shear. IF we get anything it should be a light, moderate rain today.

A lot of dry, mid level air over the Hill Country today on GOES.



https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

We'll see what daytime heating brings. If anything looks favorable it's actually SOUTH of HWY Unmentionable.

Is that the 2 or 3 number unmentionable highway? LOL

Not expecting any significant rain today, widespread rain wont start till after midnight tonight and continuing tomorrow.GFS is still painting some very high rainfall totals.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:13 am

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:45 am Moderate CAPE, lowish shear. IF we get anything it should be a light, moderate rain today.

A lot of dry, mid level air over the Hill Country today on GOES.



https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

We'll see what daytime heating brings. If anything looks favorable it's actually SOUTH of HWY Unmentionable.

Is that the 2 or 3 number unmentionable highway? LOL

3

don wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:18 am Not expecting any significant rain today, widespread rain wont start till after midnight tonight and continuing tomorrow.GFS is still painting some very high rainfall totals.

Guess I'm mowing later today.

I think the WPC will upgrade the excessive rainfall forecast to either slight or moderate for a good part of southeast TX in their next update. Based on the latest run of models I’m seeing potential for 4+” for a large part of the area. Pw’s will be around 2” and at times could be exceeding that. We will be getting a large batch of unstable moist air from the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:17 pm I think the WPC will upgrade the excessive rainfall forecast to either slight or moderate for a good part of southeast TX in their next update. Based on the latest run of models I’m seeing potential for 4+” for a large part of the area. Pw’s will be around 2” and at times could be exceeding that. We will be getting a large batch of unstable moist air from the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.

Maybe so. It's looks pretty dry to me at the moment, with just a hair of a swirl over the western Caribbean

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24

The low over SE New Mexico is more likely the potential wellspring of showers tonight and tomorrow.