Wx Infinity Forums

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:47 pm That quarter inch of rain was just enough and came right in time too - the grass and everything else is lush and green today, as it should be. Hopefully we get some more on Friday without blowing the fence over. We are deeper inside the SPC outlook lines for tomorrow/Friday than we were yesterday...

Nice!

I mowed and just finished watering the lawn...so, an unexpected lone wolf cell coming down from Waco?

Just a hair of a right turn, maybe a little rotation?

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX12619A40028C.SevereThunderstormWarning.12619A402618TX.HGXSVRHGX.8a942ef9c4e9ef84f0ed73eac9547140 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 20:39 CDT on 04-08-2021
Effective: 20:39 CDT on 04-08-2021
Expires: 21:30 CDT on 04-08-2021
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
Brazos County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 930 PM CDT.

* At 838 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hearne,
moving southeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated. This storm has a history of producing
large hail.
IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

* Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Snook, Kurten, Wixon Valley, Millican, Kyle
Field, Iola, Wellborn and Carlos.
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
Instructions: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
Grimes

ummmmmmmm...


NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX12619A401E48.TornadoWarning.12619A402BF4TX.HGXTORHGX.b6bc2823478f09cda4c7ebb3f3615cfa from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 21:10 CDT on 04-08-2021
Effective: 21:10 CDT on 04-08-2021
Expires: 21:45 CDT on 04-08-2021
Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
West central Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
East central Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
Central Brazos County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 945 PM CDT.

* At 909 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over northwestern Bryan, moving southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
College Station and Kyle Field around 920 PM CDT.
Millican around 945 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Wellborn and Carlos.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN
Instructions: TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
Grimes

Yep, classic right-turning supercell. I noticed the NWS hedged their discussion by saying the storm "could" weaken as opposed to "should" weaken.

Hailing at the house now. Nickel to quarter size.

Hook echo over western College Station, just past Kyle Field. Hail restarted.

Hook echo near Pebble Creek subdivision in College Station

I wonder what caused the storm to form.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:42 pm Hook echo near Pebble Creek subdivision in College Station

I hope you, the family and the house are all OK!! Geez!! Storms are fun until they go nuclear on you!

@Ptarmigan perhaps this new discussion will help explain:

Mesoscale Discussion 0336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 PM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

Areas affected...Portions of east TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 090258Z - 090500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A long-lived supercell may continue to produce large hail
in the short term, but it should continue weakening this evening.
Additional storms also posing an isolated large hail threat may
develop this evening across parts of east Texas.

DISCUSSION...A persistent supercell with a history of producing
large to very large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) has weakened
some to the southeast of College Station TX. This weakening trend
will likely continue over the next couple of hours as it encounters
increasing MLCIN, but large hail may still be possible with this
supercell in the short term. Other convection is in the process of
deepening farther north in east TX as a south-southwesterly
low-level jet strengthens this evening. This activity may also pose
a threat for isolated large hail, with MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
and 50-60+ kt of deep-layer shear capable of supporting supercell
structures. Current expectations are for this hail threat to remain
too isolated for watch issuance this evening.

..Gleason/Grams.. 04/09/2021

Well that escalated quickly. Everyone's alright here.

We cracked the door open to see that curved supercell outline...and of course the cat sprinted out.

Not the largest hail by far I've seen but easily lasted the longest.

The good news for the orange tabby is that he has 4 or 5 of his 9 lives left. We called for a few minutes, and he came back a little wet and shaken...in one piece. He's chowing down some Friskies treats back in comfort.

The hook echo didn't quite make it to Navasota and the cell appears to weakening on its path to the Woodlands...maybe Jason?

Well right on que - as soon as it crosses into Montgomery County - poof! That's OK - don't need a hail storm.

Glad everyone is OK!

Jason - it looks like the cell is collapsing - probably just outflow for you. Glad you got some rain yesterday.

So, when today's 4PM package came-out, for tomorrow night they had me with a 50% chance of "Severe Thunderstorms"

Just checked again and now it says 30% chance of "Thunderstorms"

I didn't expect them to update the zone package until 4AM tomorrow. That's weird -- maybe they saw something? Just seems unusual for them to drop rain chances like that without waiting for the overnight runs and some updated soundings...

Now it's 40%...split the difference!
That's the wrong side of 50/50 though.

0z Euro looks ok. GFS not so much.

We’ll see. Only a 40% of rain (lower than Wednesday) but we are much more inside the SPC risk lines than we were on Wednesday.
That just makes a ton of sense...

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:24 am We’ll see. Only a 40% of rain (lower than Wednesday) but we are much more inside the SPC risk lines than we were on Wednesday.
That just makes a ton of sense...

We might possibly have to wait till next Friday or Saturday for our next best chance at widespread rains. Not just this only north of I-10 crap.

We have only had 1 day of meaningful rain at my house since the freeze and even then it was barely 0.25 inches. I hope this isn't 2011 again.

Man that was an impressive cell that trucked down Hwy 6. DoctorMu - glad to hear all is well in your neck of the woods.

All it took was finding that one parcel of atmosphere to punch through the cap and it was off to the races for that sucker. Noticed there were a few more storms that popped off to the north of it as well, so just enough weakness was out there for a few lucky one's to score some rain. Golf ball sized hail though, I'll pass. Been there, done that.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:44 am We have only had 1 day of meaningful rain at my house since the freeze and even then it was barely 0.25 inches. I hope this isn't 2011 again.

Everything is north of us. What a surprise.

Yeah forecast says only 20% now. Must be a strong cap.