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Re: April 2021
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:45 pm
by DoctorMu
Jason - it looks like the cell is collapsing - probably just outflow for you. Glad you got some rain yesterday.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:57 pm
by jasons2k
So, when today's 4PM package came-out, for tomorrow night they had me with a 50% chance of "Severe Thunderstorms"
Just checked again and now it says 30% chance of "Thunderstorms"
I didn't expect them to update the zone package until 4AM tomorrow. That's weird -- maybe they saw something? Just seems unusual for them to drop rain chances like that without waiting for the overnight runs and some updated soundings...
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:15 am
by jasons2k
Now it's 40%...split the difference!
That's the wrong side of 50/50 though.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:35 am
by Cpv17
0z Euro looks ok. GFS not so much.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:24 am
by jasons2k
We’ll see. Only a 40% of rain (lower than Wednesday) but we are much more inside the SPC risk lines than we were on Wednesday.
That just makes a ton of sense...
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:05 am
by Cpv17
jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:24 am
We’ll see. Only a 40% of rain (lower than Wednesday) but we are much more inside the SPC risk lines than we were on Wednesday.
That just makes a ton of sense...
We might possibly have to wait till next Friday or Saturday for our next best chance at widespread rains. Not just this only north of I-10 crap.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:44 am
by Cromagnum
We have only had 1 day of meaningful rain at my house since the freeze and even then it was barely 0.25 inches. I hope this isn't 2011 again.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:27 am
by txbear
Man that was an impressive cell that trucked down Hwy 6. DoctorMu - glad to hear all is well in your neck of the woods.
All it took was finding that one parcel of atmosphere to punch through the cap and it was off to the races for that sucker. Noticed there were a few more storms that popped off to the north of it as well, so just enough weakness was out there for a few lucky one's to score some rain. Golf ball sized hail though, I'll pass. Been there, done that.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:08 pm
by Cpv17
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:44 am
We have only had 1 day of meaningful rain at my house since the freeze and even then it was barely 0.25 inches. I hope this isn't 2011 again.
Everything is north of us. What a surprise.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:43 pm
by jasons2k
Yeah forecast says only 20% now. Must be a strong cap.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:56 pm
by txbear
Disgusting out there. Rain chances also basically nil. Meanwhile, radar is lighting up like a Christmas tree up north. Seems as though we can get on the right side of any flow to not entrench us with a cap.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:43 pm
by DoctorMu
txbear wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:27 am
Man that was an impressive cell that trucked down Hwy 6. DoctorMu - glad to hear all is well in your neck of the woods.
All it took was finding that one parcel of atmosphere to punch through the cap and it was off to the races for that sucker. Noticed there were a few more storms that popped off to the north of it as well, so just enough weakness was out there for a few lucky one's to score some rain. Golf ball sized hail though, I'll pass. Been there, done that.
A colleague was in our research lab on campus and the building was shaking. Not sure if straight line or vortex related, but they found internal space fast for shelter.
Good look at the supercell. I was going to tack a pic, but the can rat out the front!
https://twitter.com/KBTXGrace/status/13 ... 98081?s=20
Nice structure:
https://twitter.com/TheRealBigPic/statu ... 96225?s=20
Funnel associated with cell.
https://twitter.com/ChikageWeather/stat ... 86467?s=20
The cell attracted attention.
https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/stat ... 26658?s=20
https://twitter.com/doomalert19/status/ ... 51526?s=20
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:40 pm
by DoctorMu
jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:43 pm
Yeah forecast says only 20% now. Must be a strong cap.
Same here. Not sure I want to test fate again. Certainly not going to run the sprinklers!
Re: April 2021
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:10 pm
by Cromagnum
East Texas getting smoked again with strong storms. We can't even get light rain.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:44 am
by jasons2k
0.00" - in April due to the cap. Not good.
Strong Northwest winds.
Onto the next...
Re: April 2021
Posted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:05 am
by txbear
Got dark as the front pushed through, but not a dang drop to show for it. Starting to be an extensive issue drought wise being stuck under this #%^* cap.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:57 pm
by Kingwood36
What is the long range long range looking like for rain on April 17th this Saturday night? My band has a gig outside playing a crawfish boil..hoping for no rain atleast for that night
Re: April 2021
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:17 pm
by Cromagnum
I'm not feeling all that optimistic about the rain this week. All the future models show things falling apart, staying north, or staying east of us.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:26 pm
by Cpv17
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:17 pm
I'm not feeling all that optimistic about the rain this week. All the future models show things falling apart, staying north, or staying east of us.
The 12z Euro looked really good.
Re: April 2021
Posted: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:55 am
by don
Looks like the area will finally be getting some much needed rain over the next few days.As weak disturbances move over the state.Some may even see a few inches of rain in localized spots.