Yep! I called it earlier. I’m glad they designated it.
May 2021:
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4267
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
yep just saw that, tonights model runs will be very interesting no doubt about it
I’d have to think Corpus area with that high pressure out East.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 8:50 pm yep just saw that, tonights model runs will be very interesting no doubt about it
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4267
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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Rip76 a potential landfall between corpus christi and madagorda bay looks most likely
If I had to make a call right now I’d go with San Antonio bay for landfall. Seadrift/Austwell area.
0z gfs is less impressive than the 18z. Makes sense with how it's looking right now...
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4267
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Scott747 na dude we srill are getting at least a depression pit of this, ofc it looks bad because the thunderstorms have faded, in the morning we will see them refire up
It won't develop into much when it looks like this on WV....
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Too much dry air getting ingested into the coc. Might not even see much rain out of it. We’ll see.
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Stratton20
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- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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We will see, still has over 24 until “landfall” lets not let the dry air lull us i to a sense of nothing will happen. Strangers and wild things have occured in the gulf before, im going with my gut and say we still will have a depression, although a tropical storm is seeming less likely
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4267
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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00z Euro Run still wants to close off this Low pressure system, only change ive seen is the Euro has delayed the potential landfall back 1 day, that would be interesting as the system would have an extra day over water.
The mid level circulation with the disturbance has gotten more pronoced over night. But it needs to develop convection around the center for development to take place.We'll see during the day if it can gain convection,as the disturbance appear to be moving slower than the models thought yesterday.So it could have a little more time for development,we'll see...
At medium now NHC up to 40% looks like an LLC has developed....
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis
Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is
forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the
western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical
depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland
over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development,
the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few
days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis
Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is
forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the
western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical
depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland
over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development,
the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few
days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
- Attachments
-
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4513
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
31
FXUS64 KHGX 211126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
LIFR to IFR conditions will persist through the mid morning as
CIGs of 400-700ft blanket the area. Ground fog has also developed
in spots across the area, but really is only impacting LBX with
occasional visibilities reduced to around a mile. Can expect MVFR
conditions to develop by the late morning across the area with
CIGs climbing to 1500 to 2500ft. Scattered showers will begin to
move into the area in the late morning with isolated thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon. VCSH or VCTS will be possible for all
terminals through the day today. Precipitation coverage decreases
late this evening ending from coastward inward. CIGs will decrease
to around 1000ft or less again tonight.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 358 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
The synoptic pattern for today features an upper level ridge and
surface high pressure situated across the Ohio River Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic with a weak upper level low located in the western Gulf
of Mexico. This setup will continue the onshore flow our region has
been stuck in the past week helping to funnel moisture into the
northwestern Gulf Coast. PWATs today will climb to 1.8 to 2 inches,
but the axis of heaviest moisture should remain east of our area
towards the Lousiana coastline. However, we will still have isolated
showers developing by daybreak across the coastal waters, expanding
inland through the morning and becoming fairly scattered across the
area by noon. Areas east of I-45, especially Chambers and Liberty
counties, will have the best chance to see some isolated heavy rain.
Through the afternoon, the area could see up of an additional inch
of rain. Though some areas may not see much if any additional rain
during the day today due to the isolated to scattered nature of the
precipitation. The WPC has placed the southeastern portion of the
area in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall today with the rest of
the area in a Marginal Risk. Have decided against a Flash Flood
Watch for this afternoon, but any additional heavy rainfall will
need to be watched closely for flooding concerns as the soil is
quite saturated already and there are various rivers already in
flood.
The forecast tonight into Saturday morning is a bit trickier. The
low pressure system located in the western Gulf mentioned in the
above paragraph will be pushed to the northwest by the high pressure
to the east. There is a possibility that this system will try to
develop into a tropical system, but more on that in the tropical
section below. Whether or not it develops into a tropical system
will have no change on the minimal impacts that it will have on our
region, which will mainly be additional rainfall and increased
marine hazardous (more on that in the marine section). The EC has
this system developing a stronger surface feature than the GFS
bringing the bulk of the precipitation for our area overnight
tonight into Saturday morning. The GFS solution doesn`t organize the
surface feature as much and drifts the upper level low west into
southern Texas. This leads to less rainfall for our area tonight,
but increases precipitation during the day on Saturday. Looking at
additional rainfall of up to an inch or two in either solution
across the southwestern portion of the region. If it wasn`t for the
already wet ground and river flooding our area is dealing with, this
system would be even less of a concern. As of right now, just pay
attention to the forecast through the day once details come into
better focus. Again, impacts from this disturbance will most likely
be minimal. While areas east of I-45 will have the higher chances of
precipitation today, it will flip for Saturday with areas west of I-
45 (especially towards the Brazos/Colorado river basins) for the
area with highest chance of precipitation. This is due to not only
that low pressure system, but also because the high pressure to the
east will be building westward pushing the axis of high PWATs west
with it.
Temperatures through the short term will not be fluctuating much.
High temperatures today and Saturday will be in the upper 70s to
low 80s with overnight lows near 70.
Fowler
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Deep tropical moisture axis is expected to gradually work its way
westward across the area Saturday night and Sunday, so will be
keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. Locally
heavy rainfall still looks possible in association with high
precipitable water values and the potential for training activity.
Some rain chances will need to remain in the forecast at the close
of the weekend and into the first half of next week as the onshore
flow persists, but a general downward trend is currently anticipated.
Toward the end of next week, high pressure at the surface and
aloft look to finally begin to build in/near the area resulting in
little to no rain and warming temperatures. 42
.MARINE...
Unsettled weather, moderate onshore winds elevated seas and a high
rip current risk are expected through the weekend with periods of
showers and thunderstorms likely. Water levels will be running
above normal as a result of this persistent onshore wind pattern.
We continue to monitor a disturbance in the western Gulf, which
may develop into a weak tropical system. Impacts from this potential
system, if any, will include the possibility of stronger winds,
elevated seas and heavy rainfall. 42
.TROPICAL...
Well, it`s a bit earlier in the year than I was expecting having to
write a tropical discussion, but here we are. An upper level low
located over the western Gulf will be monitored today as it tries to
develop a more organized surface feature and adopt some tropical
system characteristics. Sea surface temperatures where the system is
located over right now is sufficient for tropical development
(around 27 to 28C, which 26C is typically the temperature needed for
TCs to fuel itself on). However, overcast skies and runoff from
rainfall the past few days is keeping the SSTs near the coast around
25C, which will help inhibit tropical development. This system will
also be running against the clock as the system gets pushed into the
Coastal Bend area tonight by a strengthening high pressure to the
northeast. The NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of
development. Whether this becomes TD One (or Two) or remains a
disorganized system will have no change on the minimal impacts it
will have on our area. These impacts will be additional rainfall of
up to 1 to 2 inches late tonight through Saturday, increased wave
heights, and high rip current threat.
There is another disturbance the NHC is monitoring for development
out in the Central Atlantic with an 80% chance of development in the
next two and five days. If either this system, or the system in the
western Gulf develops, then this will be the seventh consecutive
year with a tropical system developing before the official start of
the hurricane season (June 1st).
Even though we will not have to use them this weekend, this is a
good reminder for all of us to make sure to have our hurricane
preparedness kits and plans ready for this season. Many of us had to
dip into our supplies this past winter due to the freeze, so make
sure to have those replenished. And a lot of us are still burnt out
on all things tropical due to last year`s record setting season, but
don`t get complacent - have those plans ready. The Tropical Outlook
was released yesterday from the NHC and CPC with them predicting
another above average hurricane season expected this year.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 70 80 69 81 / 60 60 80 30 40
Houston (IAH) 80 71 78 69 83 / 80 50 70 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 80 74 80 74 81 / 80 50 70 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday evening for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 211126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
LIFR to IFR conditions will persist through the mid morning as
CIGs of 400-700ft blanket the area. Ground fog has also developed
in spots across the area, but really is only impacting LBX with
occasional visibilities reduced to around a mile. Can expect MVFR
conditions to develop by the late morning across the area with
CIGs climbing to 1500 to 2500ft. Scattered showers will begin to
move into the area in the late morning with isolated thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon. VCSH or VCTS will be possible for all
terminals through the day today. Precipitation coverage decreases
late this evening ending from coastward inward. CIGs will decrease
to around 1000ft or less again tonight.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 358 AM CDT Fri May 21 2021/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
The synoptic pattern for today features an upper level ridge and
surface high pressure situated across the Ohio River Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic with a weak upper level low located in the western Gulf
of Mexico. This setup will continue the onshore flow our region has
been stuck in the past week helping to funnel moisture into the
northwestern Gulf Coast. PWATs today will climb to 1.8 to 2 inches,
but the axis of heaviest moisture should remain east of our area
towards the Lousiana coastline. However, we will still have isolated
showers developing by daybreak across the coastal waters, expanding
inland through the morning and becoming fairly scattered across the
area by noon. Areas east of I-45, especially Chambers and Liberty
counties, will have the best chance to see some isolated heavy rain.
Through the afternoon, the area could see up of an additional inch
of rain. Though some areas may not see much if any additional rain
during the day today due to the isolated to scattered nature of the
precipitation. The WPC has placed the southeastern portion of the
area in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall today with the rest of
the area in a Marginal Risk. Have decided against a Flash Flood
Watch for this afternoon, but any additional heavy rainfall will
need to be watched closely for flooding concerns as the soil is
quite saturated already and there are various rivers already in
flood.
The forecast tonight into Saturday morning is a bit trickier. The
low pressure system located in the western Gulf mentioned in the
above paragraph will be pushed to the northwest by the high pressure
to the east. There is a possibility that this system will try to
develop into a tropical system, but more on that in the tropical
section below. Whether or not it develops into a tropical system
will have no change on the minimal impacts that it will have on our
region, which will mainly be additional rainfall and increased
marine hazardous (more on that in the marine section). The EC has
this system developing a stronger surface feature than the GFS
bringing the bulk of the precipitation for our area overnight
tonight into Saturday morning. The GFS solution doesn`t organize the
surface feature as much and drifts the upper level low west into
southern Texas. This leads to less rainfall for our area tonight,
but increases precipitation during the day on Saturday. Looking at
additional rainfall of up to an inch or two in either solution
across the southwestern portion of the region. If it wasn`t for the
already wet ground and river flooding our area is dealing with, this
system would be even less of a concern. As of right now, just pay
attention to the forecast through the day once details come into
better focus. Again, impacts from this disturbance will most likely
be minimal. While areas east of I-45 will have the higher chances of
precipitation today, it will flip for Saturday with areas west of I-
45 (especially towards the Brazos/Colorado river basins) for the
area with highest chance of precipitation. This is due to not only
that low pressure system, but also because the high pressure to the
east will be building westward pushing the axis of high PWATs west
with it.
Temperatures through the short term will not be fluctuating much.
High temperatures today and Saturday will be in the upper 70s to
low 80s with overnight lows near 70.
Fowler
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Deep tropical moisture axis is expected to gradually work its way
westward across the area Saturday night and Sunday, so will be
keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. Locally
heavy rainfall still looks possible in association with high
precipitable water values and the potential for training activity.
Some rain chances will need to remain in the forecast at the close
of the weekend and into the first half of next week as the onshore
flow persists, but a general downward trend is currently anticipated.
Toward the end of next week, high pressure at the surface and
aloft look to finally begin to build in/near the area resulting in
little to no rain and warming temperatures. 42
.MARINE...
Unsettled weather, moderate onshore winds elevated seas and a high
rip current risk are expected through the weekend with periods of
showers and thunderstorms likely. Water levels will be running
above normal as a result of this persistent onshore wind pattern.
We continue to monitor a disturbance in the western Gulf, which
may develop into a weak tropical system. Impacts from this potential
system, if any, will include the possibility of stronger winds,
elevated seas and heavy rainfall. 42
.TROPICAL...
Well, it`s a bit earlier in the year than I was expecting having to
write a tropical discussion, but here we are. An upper level low
located over the western Gulf will be monitored today as it tries to
develop a more organized surface feature and adopt some tropical
system characteristics. Sea surface temperatures where the system is
located over right now is sufficient for tropical development
(around 27 to 28C, which 26C is typically the temperature needed for
TCs to fuel itself on). However, overcast skies and runoff from
rainfall the past few days is keeping the SSTs near the coast around
25C, which will help inhibit tropical development. This system will
also be running against the clock as the system gets pushed into the
Coastal Bend area tonight by a strengthening high pressure to the
northeast. The NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of
development. Whether this becomes TD One (or Two) or remains a
disorganized system will have no change on the minimal impacts it
will have on our area. These impacts will be additional rainfall of
up to 1 to 2 inches late tonight through Saturday, increased wave
heights, and high rip current threat.
There is another disturbance the NHC is monitoring for development
out in the Central Atlantic with an 80% chance of development in the
next two and five days. If either this system, or the system in the
western Gulf develops, then this will be the seventh consecutive
year with a tropical system developing before the official start of
the hurricane season (June 1st).
Even though we will not have to use them this weekend, this is a
good reminder for all of us to make sure to have our hurricane
preparedness kits and plans ready for this season. Many of us had to
dip into our supplies this past winter due to the freeze, so make
sure to have those replenished. And a lot of us are still burnt out
on all things tropical due to last year`s record setting season, but
don`t get complacent - have those plans ready. The Tropical Outlook
was released yesterday from the NHC and CPC with them predicting
another above average hurricane season expected this year.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 70 80 69 81 / 60 60 80 30 40
Houston (IAH) 80 71 78 69 83 / 80 50 70 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 80 74 80 74 81 / 80 50 70 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday evening for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4267
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
If this becomes a depression or storm then I definitely am calling a huge bogus to the 1-2 inch rain fall amounts that are projected, have noticed that the systems speed has slowed down from 15 mph from yesterday to 12 mph so thats a little but of a concern, some areas will probably see way more than that
Looks like it may be trying to become a depression right now as the LLC is getting more defined.We'll have to see how it organizes going into this afternoon.
Looks pretty on visible. Looks pretty dry on IR and water vapor.
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