May 2021:

[TexasBreeze]

Studying radar it looks like things are starting to backbuild to the north between the central Tx band and the activity to the east. As things heat up it will be worth watching and it is supported by the hrrr model.
Things around Beaumont may not end for awhile per usual history there!

[BlueJay]

Great rainbow photos Cro! Thanks for sharing.

In our part of The Woodlands, we have received scant amounts of rain so far.

[djmike]

Man its just not stopping...

**FLASH FLOOD WARNING**
Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
LAC019-023-TXC245-361-171745-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0012.210517T1440Z-210517T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
940 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southwestern Calcasieu Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
Northwestern Cameron Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
Central Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Orange County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1245 PM CDT.

* At 940 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 4 inches of rain
have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches,
Vidor, Bridge City, West Orange, Sabine National Wildlife,
Johnsons Bayou, Central Gardens, Sabine Pass, Lake Charles
Regional Airport, Rose City, Orangefield, Pinehurst, Southeast
Texas Regional Airport, Port Acres and Hackberry.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 2968 9412 2987 9421 3007 9423 3012 9411
3014 9339 3015 9316 3004 9328 3003 9330
3003 9332 3001 9332 2999 9334 2978 9357

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Brazzell

[snowman65]

I read somewhere that someone stated that that event isn't a Harvey or Imelda event. Well, I think the area dynamics have changed since 2017 and I don't think it takes a Harvey or Imelda to flood anymore. I know Toledo Bend is already full, so areas along the Sabine River besr prepare for flood gates to be opened quite a bit on top of all the rain, and flood their homes again for the 4th or 5th time or whatever (I've lost count by now).

[djmike]

Beaumont police officials starting to close off and barricade streets and underpasses and narrowing lanes of I10 flood waters creeping up. Winnie through beaumont to orange is now surpassing 10-11” in many areas. Just a heads up if anyone from Houston has to travel this way. Ill post pics shortly...

[DoctorMu]

"trending down from 20" to a foot"

Always a good sign...

Stay safe, everyone. We may just stay up in Minneapolis for awhile. Maybe all summer! lol

[jasons2k]

Great rainbow photos Cro! Thanks for sharing.

In our part of The Woodlands, we have received scant amounts of rain so far.

Yes, thanks for the pics Cro!!

Same here, a few sprinkles and showers yesterday but only .16"

It's muggy out there now and it feels ready to unload though. Just did a check and with an outflow coming from the north and warm, southerly flow in place with no storms out in the Gulf to 'taint' things - it's about to dump on us today. That time of year now....

[Stratton20]

Seems like the GFS is really struggling to pick up on this potential flooding pattern. Only has about 3-5 inches across houston, which Im calling big time bogus on. With a Moderate risk of flash flooding I think we will see way and I mean Way more than that.

[snowman65]

Beaumont police officials starting to close off and barricade streets and underpasses and narrowing lanes of I10 flood waters creeping up. Winnie through beaumont to orange is now surpassing 10-11” in many areas. Just a heads up if anyone from Houston has to travel this way. Ill post pics shortly...
[/quote

And this is just day 1. We have to head to College Station tomorrow for my daughters graduation on Wednesday and load her up and move her home Thursday for the summer. Going to be a very interesting trip!!

[Iceresistance]

Today is looking dangerous for Western Texas . . .

[djmike]

Beaumont and Port Arthur

[djmike]

Not good looking at radar for me...

[unome]

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx
https://twitter.com/nwshouston
https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC
https://twitter.com/hcfcd
https://twitter.com/NWSWPC
https://twitter.com/NWSSPC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1212 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

.AVIATION...

Another messy afternoon for aviation interests. An outflow
boundary will propagate into SE TX and stall. Convection is
expected to back build along the boundary and will likely affect
central and southern TAF sites this afternoon. Have added a TEMPO
for the Houston terminals and KSGR. Added wind gust groups as well
and there will be restrictions to vsby. The precip is expected to
wane around 23-00z and then remain quiet for the rest of the
night. A weak upper level trough will bring some showers toward
KCLL after 09z. A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings are expected this
afternoon transitioning to a mix of IFR/MVFR overnight with the
best potential for IFR ceilings over northern TAF sites. Models
are trending drier for Tuesday and not much confidence in how
meso-scale features will play out, so will continue advertising
VCSH/VCTS. 43

[don]

Not good looking at radar for me...

Be safe out there! The HRRR is showing the complex of storms over the golden triangle back building to the west and turning into a slow moving MCS around the I-10 corridor as the impulse over central Texas moves into the area in a few hours.Stay weather aware everyone!

[Cromagnum]

Beaumont area in bad shape already and that radar is not their friend right now.

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0191
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021

Areas affected...Far Southeast TX...Far Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171636Z - 172300Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be likely through the
afternoon across portions of far southeast Texas and southwest
Louisiana. Highly efficient hourly rainfall rates of 2-3" will
allow for additional localized accumulations of 3-6 inches.

Discussion...Flash flooding is currently ongoing midday across
portions of the Sabine River basin, including across the Beaumont
metropolitan area. A nearly stationary area of surface moisture
convergence has allowed for periodic episodes of deep convection,
producing large swaths of 4-8 inches of precipitation over the
past 6 hours (per MRMS QPE products). These radar estimations
appear to be reasonably accurate with little indication of hail
contamination via analysis of dual-pol radar components. The
Beaumont/Port Arthur Regional Airport (KBPT) measured nearly 7
inches of rain in the past 6 hours, which corroborates MRMS
dual-pol driven radar estimates. The latest radar trends and
hi-res CAM guidance suggest that episodes of heavy precipitation
will continue over this region over the next several hours,
propagating westward toward the Houston metro along with an
approaching, and potentially stalling, outflow boundary from North
Texas.

The aforementioned eastern portions of the outlined area (from
Lake Charles to Beaumont) will continue to see flash flooding with
a large area of 3-hr FFG values of 2 inches or less. Further west
where new convection propagates (from the Houston metro westward),
FFG ranges from 3-5 inches. Deep convection will continue to be
capable of 2-3" per hour rainfall rates, supporting localized FFG
exceedance in only a couple hours where convection is able to
repeat/train. Some training of convection does appear likely, as
an outflow boundary from North TX gradually stalls out over the
outlined area, providing a focal point for new convective
initiation amid a rapidly destabilizing air mass (SB CAPE rising
to 3000-4000 J/kg).

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Slow moving and training storms over the Sabine River Valley are back building to the west early this afternoon. Radar estimates indicate rainfall totals of 6-8 inches with as much as 10 inches has fallen in the last few hours just east of Winnie.

These storms will continue to build westward this afternoon into an unstable air mass over SE TX, while another line of storms near Austin approaches from the WNW. Given excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour, flash flooding will be possible this afternoon over portions of SE TX. It is unclear how far west the storms will build, but it appears that some more organized activity will reach toward the I-45 corridor and eastward.

[txbear]

That is a juiced up atmosphere out there. 17z HRRR sounding has CAPE over 3500. Will need to watch that MCS coming in from Central TX for a marginal hail tornado threat that usually accompanies those clusters.

Could be quite interesting with the back-building from the east and this cluster coming in from the west, and energy abundant.

[don]

I wouldn't be surprised if a flash flood watch is issued very soon for this afternoon, based on the WPC mesoscale discussion.

[don]

I wouldn't be surprised if a flash flood watch is issued very soon for this afternoon, based on the WPC mesoscale discussion.

Just as i thought....

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
southeast Texas, including the following areas, in south central
Texas, Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas,
Austin, Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Brazos, Burleson,
Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Harris,
Coastal Matagorda, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston Island, Grimes,
Houston, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland Harris, Inland
Matagorda, Madison, Matagorda Islands, Montgomery, Northern
Liberty, Polk, San Jacinto, Southern Liberty, Trinity, Walker,
Waller, Washington and Wharton.

* Through Thursday morning

* Heavy rain will focus on a slow moving outflow boundary this
afternoon into this evening and produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with
locally higher amounts possible. An upper level disturbance will
bring additional showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday with another
1 to 3 inches of rain with again locally higher totals. A stronger
upper level disturbance will bring yet another round of heavy rain
Wednesday into Thursday with additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches of rain with again locally higher totals possible. Storm
total rainfall by Thursday morning will average between 4 and 8
inches with isolated totals possibly exceeding ten inches. The
flood threat will be strongly dependent on where the rain falls
and how quickly it falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.