big accident caused by a thunderstorm or rain lead to a 4 hour period in which we barely moved at all.June 2021:
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
That was the worst 14 hour car ride ive ever been apart of
big accident caused by a thunderstorm or rain lead to a 4 hour period in which we barely moved at all.
big accident caused by a thunderstorm or rain lead to a 4 hour period in which we barely moved at all.The 0z Euro just trended way wetter now matching up with the GFS.
That ULL is getting close to Texas this morning.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif
SHORT TERM [Today Through Monday Night]...
Some interesting synoptic and mesoscale features will influence our
local weather in the short-term. An Omega block will remain centered
over the Pacific Northwest while Central CONUS will be on the
eastern side of this wave pattern and underneath a broad upper-level
trough. This trough will retrograde slightly as a tropical upper-
level low in the gulf approaches the TX coast today. This will help
increase PWATs to over 2" as this deep layer moisture plume expands
across Southeast Texas. The upper-level low will also enhance
convection throughout the day as cyclonic vorticity advection
provides an ascent mechanism. Therefore, convection will continue to
push inland and increase in coverage throughout the day.
Localized heavy rainfall is a concern today with PWATS climbing
above the 75th percentile, forecast soundings showing skinny CAPE at
1500 to 2000 J/kg, and cloud layer wind/shear forecast to be
favorable for slow moving convection. This hints at slow growing and
slow moving showers and storms producing heavy rainfall amounts
across our area. Therefore, WPC has placed all of our CWA in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall and increased our southeastern
counties to a slight risk. 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected to fall
across our southeastern counties today, with localized higher
amounts possible. Elsewhere across our CWA, up to an inch is
expected, with localized higher amounts possible depending on where
these slow moving, heavy showers and storms set up throughout the
day. Convection will decrease slightly overnight with PoPs dropping
to 30 to 50%, but is expected to redevelop again tomorrow as the
tropical upper-level low will continue to push further inland across
TX. This will keep a similar mesoscale setup across our region.
Therefore, widespread showers and storms are expected again with
another 1 to 3 inches of rainfall forecast for our southeastern
counties and up to an inch expected everywhere else across our CWA.
Temperatures will top out in the upper-80s to near 90 today with
overnight lows in the mid-70s tonight. Heat index values today will
reach the mid-to-upper 90s. Tomorrow, daytime highs will be slightly
lower and top out in the mid-80s with heat index values reaching the
upper-80s. Overnight lows tomorrow night will once again reach the
mid-70s.
KBL
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...
Tuesday continues wet as moisture levels remain high (precipitable
water values >2 inches) for a majority of the area. Expect more
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, probably concentrating around
the coastal/bay areas before sunrise and in the morning and then
spreading inland during the day. Once again, another 1 to 3 inches
of rain with locally higher amounts will be possible. If any of
the higher amounts occur over already saturated grounds, some
flooding could occur. A marginal to slight risk of excessive
rainfall is being carried on WPC`s Day 2 Outlook (Monday morning
through Tuesday morning).
The second half of the week (mainly Wednesday and Thursday) looks
a little drier (not everyone will get saturating rains) as precipitable
water values lower a bit and some ridging attempts to build into the
area. With parts of our area potentially saturated from a couple days
of rain and with more rain possible, WPC`s Day 3 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning) has a marginal
risk for our entire area.
But at the end of the week and especially over the weekend, will
continue to carry increasing rain chances as ridging breaks down
and precipitable water values surge back above 2 inches as a
possible cold front sags southward into our area and provides an
additional focusing boundary.
Keep updated with the forecast if you have any outdoor plans over
the holiday weekend. You might end up needing to have an indoor
alternative. 42
Some interesting synoptic and mesoscale features will influence our
local weather in the short-term. An Omega block will remain centered
over the Pacific Northwest while Central CONUS will be on the
eastern side of this wave pattern and underneath a broad upper-level
trough. This trough will retrograde slightly as a tropical upper-
level low in the gulf approaches the TX coast today. This will help
increase PWATs to over 2" as this deep layer moisture plume expands
across Southeast Texas. The upper-level low will also enhance
convection throughout the day as cyclonic vorticity advection
provides an ascent mechanism. Therefore, convection will continue to
push inland and increase in coverage throughout the day.
Localized heavy rainfall is a concern today with PWATS climbing
above the 75th percentile, forecast soundings showing skinny CAPE at
1500 to 2000 J/kg, and cloud layer wind/shear forecast to be
favorable for slow moving convection. This hints at slow growing and
slow moving showers and storms producing heavy rainfall amounts
across our area. Therefore, WPC has placed all of our CWA in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall and increased our southeastern
counties to a slight risk. 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected to fall
across our southeastern counties today, with localized higher
amounts possible. Elsewhere across our CWA, up to an inch is
expected, with localized higher amounts possible depending on where
these slow moving, heavy showers and storms set up throughout the
day. Convection will decrease slightly overnight with PoPs dropping
to 30 to 50%, but is expected to redevelop again tomorrow as the
tropical upper-level low will continue to push further inland across
TX. This will keep a similar mesoscale setup across our region.
Therefore, widespread showers and storms are expected again with
another 1 to 3 inches of rainfall forecast for our southeastern
counties and up to an inch expected everywhere else across our CWA.
Temperatures will top out in the upper-80s to near 90 today with
overnight lows in the mid-70s tonight. Heat index values today will
reach the mid-to-upper 90s. Tomorrow, daytime highs will be slightly
lower and top out in the mid-80s with heat index values reaching the
upper-80s. Overnight lows tomorrow night will once again reach the
mid-70s.
KBL
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...
Tuesday continues wet as moisture levels remain high (precipitable
water values >2 inches) for a majority of the area. Expect more
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, probably concentrating around
the coastal/bay areas before sunrise and in the morning and then
spreading inland during the day. Once again, another 1 to 3 inches
of rain with locally higher amounts will be possible. If any of
the higher amounts occur over already saturated grounds, some
flooding could occur. A marginal to slight risk of excessive
rainfall is being carried on WPC`s Day 2 Outlook (Monday morning
through Tuesday morning).
The second half of the week (mainly Wednesday and Thursday) looks
a little drier (not everyone will get saturating rains) as precipitable
water values lower a bit and some ridging attempts to build into the
area. With parts of our area potentially saturated from a couple days
of rain and with more rain possible, WPC`s Day 3 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning) has a marginal
risk for our entire area.
But at the end of the week and especially over the weekend, will
continue to carry increasing rain chances as ridging breaks down
and precipitable water values surge back above 2 inches as a
possible cold front sags southward into our area and provides an
additional focusing boundary.
Keep updated with the forecast if you have any outdoor plans over
the holiday weekend. You might end up needing to have an indoor
alternative. 42
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Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
With these temps below normal and rain Im hoping for an early Fall!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I dont think this pattern will lead to an early fall, come around August and September we probably wont have the luxury of these cooler temps
Depends on the blocking up north.Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 27, 2021 1:06 pm With these temps below normal and rain Im hoping for an early Fall!
So far it's still barely rained at my house. Hoping we get a lot soon.
Popping up moving showers. More like Louisiana weather. We just had a brief shower. No cap or ridge overhead to stop Gulf moisture from rising and forming showers.
I'd expect this for the next 10-14 days. After that the western ridge usually parks over us. We'll see, though. The entire year has been unusual so far.
I'd expect this for the next 10-14 days. After that the western ridge usually parks over us. We'll see, though. The entire year has been unusual so far.
Big big tower looking to the NW of Friendswood.
Can’t get anything to pop up here though.
Can’t get anything to pop up here though.
If I hear anyone complain about a drought this summer I will ban you from the forum.
Haha!!
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I dont want to hearing nothing about droughts!! I moved from a city that only rained 2 days in a span of 2 years!!
The 12z Euro has 4-6” across all of southeast TX during the next 10 days.
Half an inch so far here today with another downpour on my doorstep. Looks like I could easily see an inch or more of rain today.
Everything is way north of here. Like mostly all of last .week.
80% for Beaumont today and so far Nada. Hopefully things pick up later.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)