About 2 inches of rain this morning in CLL. Not much action after 1 pm.
Not too hot and actually lower DP post rain cooling.
Rinse and repeat tomorrow.
Definite maybe on the models for a July 4th front.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021
.SHORT TERM [This Afternoon through Tuesday Evening]...
Heavy rains this morning/early afternoon focused in southeast
Harris/Ft Bend/Brazoria/Galveston/Jackson and coastal Matagorda.
Rainfall rates of 2"/hr were common with the clusters/short bands
of storms.
Expecting the current round of storms moving inland to bring some
stability/at least diminish some of the instability so that any
other storms that develop this evening will probably have lower
rainfall rates.
As the upper ridging to the northeast weakens
slightly late tonight/early Tuesday and the upper low over S TX
moves west and fills the moisture should continue to stream into
the region and expect that a band of low level convergence should
develop near the coast around sunrise Tuesday and start marching
inland throughout the day. Widespread rainfall expected again
Tuesday and locally heavy rainfall remains a threat. High PW
airmass and an initial focus near the coast should be the main
area that gets the heaviest rains. As the rather limited heating
takes place late morning/early afternoon the storms should spread
inland but could see some redevelopment near the coast. Rain rates
of 2"/hour will be likely which may lead to some additional
isolated areas with street flooding. Loss of heating late Tuesday
should bring a quiet period at least for 4 to 8 hours before
storms redevelop again.
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.LONG TERM [Wednesday Morning Through Monday]...
Rain chances decrease mid week as upper level ridging builds across
SE Texas. Sufficient low level moisture trapped beneath the ridge
however, will be enough to produce diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours both
Wednesday and Thursday.
The ridge begins to retreat to the west
Friday as a strong upper level high over Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Canada pushes the upper level trough over Central CONUS eastward
into the Great Lakes region. A few models attempt to bring a cold
front into Southeast Texas sometime Friday night into Saturday,
while others keep the front to our north or bring in a very weak
boundary only across the northern counties of the CWA. We will have
to wait and see how the front evolves on Friday to get a better idea
of how far south it will push. Regardless, upper level weakness will
increase over Southeast Texas and combine with very good moisture
advection and higher wind speeds aloft to result in decent chances
for showers and thunderstorms over most of the local area Friday
into early next week.
Though the forecast calls for a stormy 4th of July weekend, areas
receiving rain will at least experience high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s...not too shabby for end of June and early
July. Nights will feel damp, muggy, sticky as lows stay in the 70s
inland to low 80s along the coasts while dewpoints rise to the mid
70s.
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