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12z GFS operational loses 97L around Cuba but the ensemble has some members keeping it through the Gulf around the end of next week.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 12:12 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 12:10 pm Rain is moving-in here now.
Pool construction did not start today due to the weather. What are the odds? For now…we wait.

You’ve been waiting forever on that pool lol

Yeah, when we signed in April, we were #13 in line. The gunite shortage (and crazy demand) backed everyone up.

Now, we are finally next in line, utilities marked, etc…..and waiting on the rain to clear. At this point, we are totally at the mercy of mother nature. For once, I just want the rain to stop.

Despite how far 97l is out chances are increasing of a system moving across the Caribbean with a setup that could get it into the Gulf. 12z GFS has joined the Euro with a weaker system. The Ukie is now on board with a TS approaching Eastern Cuba/ Yucatan channel.

Holy Crap is anyone seeing the 12z Euro run!!?! Flooding could become a major concern by the 4th

Yep the Euro has been showing a cut off low forming over the state for the last several runs.Showing more of a Spring like pattern than Summer.

That would spell big time trouble potentially, Euro has a 23 inch bullseye somewhere in SE or Central Texas

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:34 pm That would spell big time trouble potentially, Euro has a 23 inch bullseye somewhere in SE or Central Texas

If that much rain fell in CTX think about what would happen downstream.

CPV17 yeah that would be awful, but yeah seeing as the Euro has been showing a Cut off Low in its previous runs, this definitely needs to be watched

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:42 pm CPV17 yeah that would be awful, but yeah seeing as the Euro has been showing a Cut off Low in its previous runs, this definitely needs to be watched

Yeah, seriously. Those cut off lows can produce some of our biggest floods. Even more so sometimes than tropical systems.

don wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:26 pm Yep the Euro has been showing a cut off low forming over the state for the last several runs.Showing more of a Spring like pattern than Summer.

GFS is nowhere’s near that so I’m not sure I buy it yet.

CPV17 yeah im not 100% buying it yet but it definitely is a signal, hope this holds off until after the 4th though:(

don wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:26 pm Yep the Euro has been showing a cut off low forming over the state for the last several runs.Showing more of a Spring like pattern than Summer.

That's crazy for July.

Nightmare for a pool contractor. My hopes for having this done before Labor Day appear to be diminishing. Murphy’s Law at work I suppose.

Just cloudy here no rain all day...

Got all of our rain out the way yesterday (for now anyways). Goose egg at the house today.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:22 pm Just cloudy here no rain all day...

Same here. I'll take it. We were surrounded by rain for awhile.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
404 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021


.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tomorrow/Wednesday Night]...

Showers and thunderstorms that developed along the coast this morn-
ing have spread inland through the day. 12Z soundings did indicate
PWs around 2.1-2.2" across the CWA and this helped to fuel the mod-
erate to heavy rains that developed. Still expecting precipitation
to taper off quickly this evening with the loss of heating...but we
are seeing a couple of the shorter-range models trying to keep the
POPs in place over the coastal counties well into the late evening
hours (HRRR in particular). Otherwise, quieter conditions will pre-
vail overnight. A mid-level ridge that is progged to build in from
the NE could help to limit POPs a bit by tomorrow (afternoon). But
did opt to err on the side of wet until more evidence of this high
is available. And so based on the higher POPs/clouds, did keep max
temperatures tomorrow near 90. 41



.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Thursday morning weak upper ridging over NCTX will be slowly
weakening and drifting very slowly west and southwest while the
low levels remain moist with onshore flow into Friday. This should
lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly following a
diurnal pattern. Thursday night into Friday with an area of
disturbed weather moving into the SE Gulf and bringing an increase
in low level moisture for the weekend and upper weakness over
OK/AR/E TX opening the door to a weak cold front Friday wobbling
south into the area. Scattered to possibly numerous storms along
the frontal boundary...timing may change but at this point it
looks to arrive into the northeastern counties in the late
afternoon/evening. NW flow events can be a real challenge in the
summertime as to how aggressive to go with POPs. For now will cap
them at around 70-80 percent but some areas could see much higher
as the frontal boundary continues to sag south Friday night and
Saturday. The potential for locally heavy rainfall increases with
PW of 2.2 to 2.4" pooled along the boundary and enough instability
to fuel storms overnight into the 4th of July holiday. High rain
chances will continue Sunday the 4th as the front stalls then
probably starts to wobble back north with weak disturbances still
meandering about over the region. The typical diurnal pattern
probably won`t apply given the frontal boundary and abundant
moisture/instability so storms go well into the late evening
festivities. Monday and Tuesday a weakness in the upper heights
develops and drifts overhead or just south of the CWA and so SETX
should remain in a very wet pattern. Temperatures Saturday through
Tuesday should be moderated by cloud cover/rain for the area and
slightly drier spreading into the northern CWA in the wake of the
front too.
45

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively quiet with south and southeasterly flow of around 10 to
10-15 knots with seas of 3-5 feet through the weekend. Tides
remain elevated through the weekend and will probably be
contending with elevated tides and moderate to strong rip
currents. Seas should begin to build Monday into Tuesday as fetch
gets longer.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 74 90 73 91 74 / 30 40 20 20 10
Houston (IAH) 75 90 74 91 76 / 40 60 20 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 89 80 87 80 / 50 50 20 30 10

Fwiw the 18z GFS has slightly trended towards the 12z Euro.

Cpv17 yeah the GFS has trended a little wetter this evening

NHC has become a little more bullish on 97l developing. Setup still looks like a potential cruiser to me if it stays low enough.