Wx Infinity Forums

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:59 pm**

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:54 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:46 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:04 pm Man the GFS is going to give us a headache, it doesn't know what to do with this potential system
Hopefully by this weekend we’ll know a lil more.
There isnt a storm...that's why it's having problems lol

Yeah it doesn’t have an initialization point so that’s definitely a factor.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:06 pm**

I know haha, I just
hope we get more consistency by friday or saturday tbh

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:22 pm**

don wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:31 pm From HGX discussion this afternoon.

.TROPICAL...
The Gulf Coast weathersphere is abuzz with the potential for
tropical development around the Central American gyre, with some
model guidance suggesting a tropical cyclone at some point next
week. Will this happen? Well, it`s hurricane season, so of course
it can happen! Really though, the models that do develop a
tropical cyclone are plausible, but so are the models that do not.
We`ll be keeping a close eye on things in the days to come, but at
this point, we just simply don`t know enough to say with
confidence just yet how this plays out. Stick with us, trust the
process - we`ll continue to tell you everything we do know, and
the important things we still need to figure out

Just hoping for some lemonade. If it heads for the LATX border as an organized system, my lawn will crisp again, just like storm after storm last year.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:24 pm**

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:54 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:46 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:04 pm Man the GFS is going to give us a headache, it doesn't know what to do with this potential system
Hopefully by this weekend we’ll know a lil more.
There isnt a storm...that's why it's having problems lol

Variance in Initial conditions, or lack thereof kills reliable iterations.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:26 pm**

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:59 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:54 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:46 pm

Hopefully by this weekend we’ll know a lil more.
There isnt a storm...that's why it's having problems lol
Yeah it doesn’t have an initialization point so that’s definitely a factor.

https://youtu.be/IX2bE-OBtwk

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:34 pm**

Out of curiosity has their ever been a time when a model has picked up on a storm beyond 9-10 days and that storm actually happened or formed? That is something that has me curious if its happened before

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:51 pm**

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:22 pm
don wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:31 pm From HGX discussion this afternoon.

.TROPICAL...
The Gulf Coast weathersphere is abuzz with the potential for
tropical development around the Central American gyre, with some
model guidance suggesting a tropical cyclone at some point next
week. Will this happen? Well, it`s hurricane season, so of course
it can happen! Really though, the models that do develop a
tropical cyclone are plausible, but so are the models that do not.
We`ll be keeping a close eye on things in the days to come, but at
this point, we just simply don`t know enough to say with
confidence just yet how this plays out. Stick with us, trust the
process - we`ll continue to tell you everything we do know, and
the important things we still need to figure out

Just hoping for some lemonade. If it heads for the LATX border as an organized system, my lawn will crisp again, just like storm after storm last year.

Please. No TX/La border. Us in Beaumont dont want another ANYTHING. Well...maybe cooler temps, BUT THATS IT! Lolol We’ve had our fair share for the next 50 years. Im done. (Jk...it really is all still exciting to see, watch and predict.)

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:01 pm**

Just checked the gauge - my high today was 97F. Definitely summer now.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:08 pm**

djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:51 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:22 pm
don wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:31 pm From HGX discussion this afternoon.

Just hoping for some lemonade. If it heads for the LATX border as an organized system, my lawn will crisp again, just like storm after storm last year.
Please. No TX/La border. Us in Beaumont dont want another ANYTHING. Well...maybe cooler temps, BUT THATS IT! Lolol We’ve had our fair share for the next 50 years. Im done. (Jk...it really is all still exciting to see, watch and predict.)

We're with you Mike!

5 times bitten, 10X shy!

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:11 pm**

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:01 pm Just checked the gauge - my high today was 97F. Definitely summer now.

I thought College Station was hot. We peaked at 94-95°F. What circle of hell do you live in?

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:34 pm**

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:11 pm
jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:01 pm Just checked the gauge - my high today was 97F. Definitely summer now.
I thought College Station was hot. We peaked at 94-95°F. What circle of hell do you live in?

IAH hit 95F. I’m usually a degree or two hotter in the summer (along with surrounding gauges I check) and I’m usually 1-2 degrees colder in the winter mornings. Seems about right since I’m a touch further away from salt water.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:52 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:34 pm Out of curiosity has their ever been a time when a model has picked up on a storm beyond 9-10 days and that storm actually happened or formed? That is something that has me curious if its happened before

Yes, and it happens more often than it use to. Due too the models being better at tropical genesis than they were 10+ years ago.Models now produce much less phantom canes than they use too also.

Posted: **Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:43 am**

The only model that’s been somewhat consistent is the Euro with this system. All the other models are all over the place. No telling what’s going to happen.

Posted: **Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:45 am**

Cpv17 yeah thats why my biggest attention is on the EURO, not saying it will be right, but it has been pretty consistent with developing the system, Im not even gonna bother looking at the GFS until we get some sort of agreement

Posted: **Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:18 am**

00z Euro has a strong tropical storm heading North towards Houston or just east of houston

Posted: **Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:41 am**

The latest Euro and GFS are in complete agreement right now on timing and track lol go figure! They both have a tropical storm hitting around the TX/LA border in 10 days.

Posted: **Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:51 am**

0Z Euro

Posted: **Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:14 am**

don wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:51 am0Z Euro

I SAID NOOOO TX/LA BORDER! Stop it! <wink wink>

Posted: **Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:35 am**

One thing to remember this year we have airlines busy!! Last year we didn’t due to Covid so we couldn’t get as much data model wise, our commercial planes collect temps pressure dew points and it's all fed into the models, like mobile weather stations.

Posted: **Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:43 am**

djmike wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:14 am
don wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:51 am0Z Euro
I SAID NOOOO TX/LA BORDER! Stop it! <wink wink>

Well, these model runs are happening because you’re an A&M fan.

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