Wx Infinity Forums

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:40 pm As others have posted, it’s too early to focus on the details of any particular model run. A lot will change over the next week that just can’t be resolved by the models this far out.

I’d advise folks to pay attention to our Senior Members and Pro-Mets for reliable information

I changed the thread title. I'm becoming confident in what will happen next week. Squalls will increase in the BoC by next Monday/Tuesday. All models are now in very good agreement on the timing of development and the track. Still some disagreement on the intensity, but shear will be a factor. A low center will develop Tue-Wed and track northward, generally toward the upper TX coast or the SW LA coast. The NHC will classify this low as a depression Thursday morning and likely a TS prior to its moving ashore Fri/Sat, once recon finds a small area of TS winds. It will be a sheared, weak TS with heavy rainfall being the primary threat to TX/LA.

don wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:48 am This is what Wxman57 is thinking about the system from Storm2k.

I changed the thread title. I'm becoming confident in what will happen next week. Squalls will increase in the BoC by next Monday/Tuesday. All models are now in very good agreement on the timing of development and the track. Still some disagreement on the intensity, but shear will be a factor. A low center will develop Tue-Wed and track northward, generally toward the upper TX coast or the SW LA coast. The NHC will classify this low as a depression Thursday morning and likely a TS prior to its moving ashore Fri/Sat, once recon finds a small area of TS winds. It will be a sheared, weak TS with heavy rainfall being the primary threat to TX/LA.

don wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:09 am Not necessarily, as it would depend on just how sheared it is, as a sheared systems doesn't necessarily mean there wont be heavy convection near the center. It's the areas to the west of the center that would be high and dry though.And of course the center could be devoid of convection also, but again it would depend on the amount of shear in place.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:44 am Hope thats not the case, hope the shear isnt bad, I dont want to end up getting dry slotted, I want more rain haha, not saying I want this to become a powerful system as I dont, but I definitely would love another 3-5 inches in my backyard