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Cpv17 fair enough I guess, majority of the 12z Euro ensemble members still show Texas in the cards

There isnt even a system to model off of yet...chilll...

Sorry for getting so wound up yall about something that hasnt even formed yet, Im getting so many questions from friends and family members about if this is going to effect texas or not, and these frequent Model changes are driving me nuts because I cant get them answers yet

Models will drive you crazy..they are a tool...not the end all be all. They are going to change 928,489 times before it focuses on a solution..relax and wait till it makes it in the gulf/boc or it will drive you crazy..you can't live and die by each model run

Won't know much till it forms and it is a week or so away! Someone here is really going to stress out if a real strong system takes aim here in peak season!!!

I 100% understand yall, its juat annoying that im getting so many questions from people and that I cant give them a good answer because the models keep changing the track of where this goes

That is all.

from https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussio ... isc=pmdepd

...In the
Gulf of Mexico, a disturbance may form near the Bay of Campeche
and move northward late in the week but there remains a large
degree of uncertainty in its evolution.

...Over the Gulf of Mexico, the models and means show an area of
increasing moisture and lower heights aloft/surface pressures
lifting northward out of the Bay of Campeche, with some signals
for possible tropical development per the ECMWF tropical cyclone
formation probabilities >40-50%. By day 7 Friday the manual
forecast shows an area of low pressure ~300 miles south of the
TX/LA border per the NHC-WPC coordinated forecast. Monitor future
forecasts for any adjustments.

...Portions of the Gulf Coast region could see an increase
of rainfall toward the end of next week as moisture pushes
northward across the Gulf. Monitor forecasts/National Hurricane
Center discussions over the coming days for the latest information
regarding any potential tropical cyclone development.


right now, NHC gives it just a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

keep an eye on the NHC, but also experts for your local forecast

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/
https://twitter.com/nwshouston
https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:40 pm I 100% understand yall, its juat annoying that im getting so many questions from people and that I cant give them a good answer because the models keep changing the track of where this goes

It's easy..just tell them you won't know till it actually makes it in the gulf and develops...

Well fwiw, the CPC forecast that just came out today still looks good for the rest of the month calling for below average temps and above average precipitation.

Kingwood36 thats what ive been telling them but they keep asking me “ how strong will this get”? Hope we can get some better clarification from the models in the next 3-4 days, Ill just stick with what you said though

hazards outlooks

days 3-7 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

days8-14 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hreats.php


6 hour QPF loop, days 1-7 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

We have a week to watch this at bare minimum. Models will change. We can expect that. Just watch the trends.

Models change every run! We honestly don’t need the rain around here.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:45 pm B69193F3-BFA2-4920-97DC-27E92B59943C.jpegThat is all.

Dead

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:48 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:45 pm B69193F3-BFA2-4920-97DC-27E92B59943C.jpegThat is all.

Dead

I don’t post and I feel this! Gonna be a long summer....

I just would hate to see Louisiana get hit ..again

Models will continue to change. Most Euro ensembles have this heading towards the general area of the central Texas coast. A few hit Louisiana. I think we have to wait a few more days to know what we are dealing with.

Lots of dust out there migrating to the west:

18z GFS has slightly trended back to the west. 12z GFS run had the system making landfall on the Florida border. 18z takes it more towards eastern Lousiana, have to watch and see if this west trend continues