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CPV17 until a center of circulation forms take the model runs with a grain of salt, I really hope we get some rain from this, I absolutely dislike dry and hot weather

Seems like we may have an invest sometime today. Hopefully that will help the models a little.

TROPICAL...From HGX NWS

As mentioned last night, there is still a lot of uncertainty and
models continue to move the location and vary greatly with the
intensity and potential development of an area of disturbed
weather in the SW Gulf of Mexico. The model consensus this AM
shifts the system toward LA with the active weather on the east of
this feature. Again, this far out in time, things will likely
change. Stay prepared, be ready and keep up with the forecasts. 43

Rain chances for next week have been lowered to the 20-30% range.

Looking more like the gulf system will get sheared to the east. Pretty typical for a June storm.

If we dont get any rain out of this im going to be one pissed off Texan haha , could be alot worse though , those poor folks out in the South West especially Arizona, man they are about to get absolutely Cooked by a heat ridge.

Samantha550 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:55 pm

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:48 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:45 pm B69193F3-BFA2-4920-97DC-27E92B59943C.jpegThat is all.

Dead

I don’t post and I feel this! Gonna be a long summer....

Yes. It’s amazing the amount of time wasted.

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:19 am

Samantha550 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:55 pm

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:48 pm

Dead

I don’t post and I feel this! Gonna be a long summer....

Yes. It’s amazing the amount of time wasted.

Showing a little grace goes a long way

I need this reminder often, myself
Be Safe
Be Kind
Be Strong

unome wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:11 am I need this reminder often, myself
Be Safe
Be Kind
Be Strong

This is is a great reminder! As a parent of a child with special needs, I can relate for sure.

As for this little system...recon is penciled-in for Monday the 14th. I believe this will be the first flight of the 2021 season.

Thats a fantastic saying!

We still have a ways to go before we really know how everything will play out. 12Z GFS continues to be inconsistent it shifted west due to stronger ridging and is now showing the storm stalling in the northwest gulf with multiple vorticites rotating around a broad center before eventually being sheared to the northeast.The ICON also shifted west showing a lopsided weak storm or depression moving slowly towards the middle/upper Texas coast.We may not get a purely tropical cyclone,but more of a subtropical system out of this.And we may end up dry and sunny, or with a washout, im not willing to say either or at the moment until we get more model consistency.I suspect an invest will be designated before the day is over, and that will hopefully bring more clarity to the situation once the models have a "center" to track.

So we might as well call this a forecasting headache, but yeah Definitely noticed the trend west by the GFS and ICON, will see what the CMC shows

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:17 am

unome wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:11 am I need this reminder often, myself
Be Safe
Be Kind
Be Strong

This is is a great reminder! As a parent of a child with special needs, I can relate for sure.

Myself as well Jason.

Meanwhile, check out the radar loop...and you can see the gravity waves on visible satellite too.

What the heck are gravity waves? Never heard of that before

So, there's a chance of Gulf moisture fed showers Mon - Thur. Then the BOC tropical thing drifts toward the LA coast. If organized in anyway, that shuts off showers.

There's a chance of wrap-around lemonade though. We need something wet in CLL - grass is starting to dry out. We didn't receive as much rain a week ago as in HOU area. Going to have to put down some Sta Green fertilizer (Scotts sux) with 2% iron to deal with our alkaline, sodium filled sprinkler water.

I was enjoying the green while it lasted, even if it mean mosquitos.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:22 pm What the heck are gravity waves? Never heard of that before

Here's a video from NOAA that explains it well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hpk1WQNcV44

Awesome! Ill check it out Don, Thanks

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:34 pm So, there's a chance of Gulf moisture fed showers Mon - Thur. Then the BOC tropical thing drifts toward the LA coast. If organized in anyway, that shuts off showers.

There's a chance of wrap-around lemonade though. We need something wet in CLL - grass is starting to dry out. We didn't receive as much rain a week ago as in HOU area. Going to have to put down some Sta Green fertilizer (Scotts sux) with 2% iron to deal with our alkaline, sodium filled sprinkler water.

I was enjoying the green while it lasted, even if it mean mosquitos.

Yes, you're right about Scott's. It's full of fillers. Nitro-Phos is another good brand. It's what Randy Lemmon recommends.
I'm torn on the rain. It's getting to where we could use a shower too, to freshen-up the lawn. My preference would be on a Sunday, so it won't interfere with construction. Maybe tomorrow will be our lucky day.

The woods are still a mosquito-infested swamp. Brown muck water everywhere. I'm not worried about deep soil moisture issues yet.