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From HGX afternoon discussion.

.TROPICAL...

Significant uncertainty remains regarding the potential future
development of the disturbance near the Gulf of Campeche and it is
still far too early to consider a potential track of any system
that may form. However, slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days as it moves slowly and
erratically, and a tropical depression could form near the Bay of
Campeche by the middle of next week. Typically with these
disturbances, once they do get more organized and confidence
increases with its track, there will not be as much of an advanced
warning as we would typically like to see, so now is always a good
time to ensure your hurricane preparedness plans for the season
have been finalized. KBL

GFS trended west. The latest run shows dry air being less of an issue ! This trend is concerning

Shows a fairly large sized system hooking more east south of Louisiana close to the coast with landfall central La. Last run was it being sheared apart towards Florida panhandle.

The latest GFS shifts towards the TX/LA border. The latest run also shows us getting 2-4 inches of rain out of this ! I think models will shift for a few more days. Today’s trend has been west. Something to watch

Yep definitely seems the GFS has a more healthy storm than one being sheared apart, that is pretty concerning, and its just meanders the system around in the Northwestern Gulf, definitely bot a good sign, like I said we could see surprises with this system, and this model run is definitely indicating that

Harveyvsallison wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 5:49 pm The latest GFS shifts towards the TX/LA border. The latest run also shows us getting 2-4 inches of rain out of this ! I think models will shift for a few more days. Today’s trend has been west. Something to watch

18z GFS is just a rinse and repeat of last year's tropical season.

Still a long way out.

DoctorMu yes its 6 days out but it is coming into line with what the Euro is showing,

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:05 pm DoctorMu yes its 6 days out but it is coming into line with what the Euro is showing,

I would watch the euro Ensembles ! (EPS)

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:03 pm

Harveyvsallison wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 5:49 pm The latest GFS shifts towards the TX/LA border. The latest run also shows us getting 2-4 inches of rain out of this ! I think models will shift for a few more days. Today’s trend has been west. Something to watch

18z GFS is just a rinse and repeat of last year's tropical season.

Still a long way out.

We are slowly being able to possibly narrow down possibilities. I’d say if you’re living anywhere from Corpus Christi to Baton Rouge, you have a shot at something

Harveyvallison I have been! Seems like the Euro ensemble members are pretty adamant on a Texas landfall

I wouldn’t buy it yet!!! Last year models struggled 3 days out, now last year they didn’t have data from airlines so maybe this year they will be better 3-4 days out

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:31 pm I wouldn’t buy it yet!!! Last year models struggled 3 days out, now last year the didn’t have data from airlines so maybe this year they will be better 3-4 days out

You are right cant jump with every model gotta watch and wait

This isn't gospel...it hasn't even made it to the gulf yet...wait and watch

Kingwood36 no the disturbance is in the gulf now, but the GFS is starting to come in line with what the Euro is showing, thats why this gets our attention

Until we have a center models will flip

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:47 pm Until we have a center models will flip

Bingo

Still at 40% pretty surprised the NHC hasnt upped development chances even more

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:56 pm Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development is possible over the next several days while this
system moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could
form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch

Just about to post this. No initiation yet, so we know nothing really.

Models:
Euro - weak TS/TD ; landfall Galveston
GFS - TD crawls ashore in LA
CMC - TD aiming at LaTx.

Gfs is stronger then a depression