Wx Infinity Forums

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:22 am**

txbear wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:57 am
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:07 pm
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:57 pm

Always the way it is. Zero rains for weeks or too much all at once.
Literally just stole the words right out of my mouth. Our weather here is wack. It used to not be like this. And my intuition is telling me that the water hose has turned off and we’re about to enter one long hot and dry pattern.
Out of sheer curiosity, for the uninitiated (myself having lived here until a handful of years ago), what did it used to be like?

The renormed NWS averages are a clue. We're slightly over 1°F warmer and with more rain, and higher variance with rain. More tropical influenced weather.

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:24 am**

I have Siberian huskies. Yes they’re hot. I’m thankful that I can walk then on the property and let them goof off in the pond.

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:25 am**

The heat and humidity are being compounded by very little breeze, a bit unusual for June this far NW of Houston.

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:25 am**

But besides my normal complaining about the heat

, im leaving for Vacation to Florida on the 19th, and we are driving too, how does travel look around that time especially since the system will be moving northward

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:51 am**

The heat index is 107° before noon. Dewpoint of 77°F.

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:15 pm**

The Great Heatwave of 1980 started in early/mid June and last into August before Hurricane Allen reshuffled the atmosphere and ended the drought/Heatwave. It was tough fighting fires that summer..

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:43 pm**

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:15 pm The Great Heatwave of 1980 started in early/mid June and last into August before Hurricane Allen reshuffled the atmosphere and ended the drought/Heatwave. It was tough fighting fires that summer..

I was 7 at the time but I remember that heatwave and evacuating to Somerville because of Allen.

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:48 pm**

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:15 pm The Great Heatwave of 1980 started in early/mid June and last into August before Hurricane Allen reshuffled the atmosphere and ended the drought/Heatwave. It was tough fighting fires that summer..

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:08 pm**

NHC has increased odds of 92L developing to 70%

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:12 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:08 pm NHC has increased odds of 92L developing to 70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two, located about a hundred miles east of the
Outer Banks of North Carolina.

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in
association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it
meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move
northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late in the week when the low moves across the central or
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin
to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles south-
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is maintaining a large but
disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity. Some
development of this system is possible during the next few days
before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds
limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Blake

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:34 pm**

Before everyone cries themselves to sleep... the pattern behind potential “Claudette” isn’t a clear-cut all summer bone-dry setup. A system passing to our east doesn’t guarantee long-term dry.

Every situation is different and the larger-scale pattern needs to be weighed in as well.

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:46 pm**

Latest WPC Rainfall guidance has shifted a little more to the west, in the earlier outlook it had mostly blue colors over our area or .5 to maybe 1 inch, but starting to see some red colors showing up around houston, pretty interesting

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 2:01 pm**

Not our storm. Y’all please be careful what you wish for.

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 2:02 pm**

DLS2010r not set in stone yet. Until the circulation forms and we see where that happens, we are not even close to being out of the woods, but I do think Louisiana stands the highest risk of a landfall

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 2:04 pm**

I understand. Just be careful what you wish for.

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 2:06 pm**

Oh no haha your absolutely right, but one thing I think that is important to watch is for any wobbles, yes Models are moving this in a Northward direction, but any sort of wobble or deviation to the left or right when it moves North could make a huge difference in any potential impacts, storms never move in a straight path, always room for those tricky little wobbles along the way

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:00 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 2:06 pm Oh no haha your absolutely right, but one thing I think that is important to watch is for any wobbles, yes Models are moving this in a Northward direction, but any sort of wobble or deviation to the left or right when it moves North could make a huge difference in any potential impacts, storms never move in a straight path, always room for those tricky little wobbles along the way

Most euro and Canadian ensembles bring this west of Houston. A few GFS ensembles show a hurricane into Texas one shows a category 3 hurricane hitting near Galveston so anything could happen !

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:01 pm**

Also most models are trending stronger with less dry air now at 12Z that’s something to watch as well

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:02 pm**

Harveyvallison wouldnt a stronger atorm tend to move more westward or Northwestward?

Posted: **Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:05 pm**

Big uptake in support of tc development on the 12z Euro ensembles.

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