Wx Infinity Forums

Ar this point ai dont even know what to believe anymore lol

Me either.

I’ve read on a chat the storm is coming here, no it’s going to Louisiana, wait! It’s going to Alabama and Mississippi and even to Florida. The hysteria over a tropical blob is over the top. And all this time I thought we had to have a center of circulation to
determine where a storm most likely go. Not go in a tour of the Gulf Coast . Oh and don’t anyone dare contradict anyone else’s track forecast because they will get mad if anyone does

Lmao for a landfall only 2.5 days out, this is ridiculous to see this models flip flopping this much

Not having a actual center will do that

The model watching will drive you crazy.

The forecast for this one is actually pretty straightforward. I don’t expect any significant changes in the thinking between now and landfall.

I ran my sprinklers today.

Jasons2k Dont jinx it

Has anyone listened to the hgx update?

txbear wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:31 pm For what it's worth, USAF Hurricane Hunters TDY to Ellington. Suspect will see flights and data soon.

Edit: Looks like they're off on first recon...callsign TEAL95

Thought it was tomorrow???

Im confused, I thiught they were out flying today?

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:37 pm

txbear wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:31 pm For what it's worth, USAF Hurricane Hunters TDY to Ellington. Suspect will see flights and data soon.

Edit: Looks like they're off on first recon...callsign TEAL95

Thought it was tomorrow???

I honestly haven't observed the mission schedule, but did notice they went up and offshore. They've since returned closer to shore around KGLS.

Maybe it was just a test flight?

txbear wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:49 pm

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:37 pm

txbear wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:31 pm For what it's worth, USAF Hurricane Hunters TDY to Ellington. Suspect will see flights and data soon.

Edit: Looks like they're off on first recon...callsign TEAL95

Thought it was tomorrow???

I honestly haven't observed the mission schedule, but did notice they went up and offshore. They've since returned closer to shore around KGLS.

Probably just found a mess

18Z GFS, you can see the split of energy with the main center close to the upper Texas coast, with a separate piece of energy in Mississippi.The vorticty is also helping to rob moisture away from the main storm. Seems like whats giving the models a hard time is the split of energy that occurs between the main circulation and vorticity on the north side of the storm. In some runs the northern vorticity becomes the main circulation and pulls off to the northeast. While in other runs the models show the main circulation remaining separated from the vorticity to the north.And continuing further west until the trough picks up the storm.

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 5:14 pm

txbear wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:49 pm

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:37 pm

Thought it was tomorrow???

I honestly haven't observed the mission schedule, but did notice they went up and offshore. They've since returned closer to shore around KGLS.

Probably just found a mess

Had a quick minute and checked NHC. You were correct that USAF mission tasking is for tomorrow. Reposition, familiarization, etc today. As I type, TEAL95 has since departed our area for our neighbors along I-35.

OFC the GFS trended back to the west, surprise surprise lol

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:25 pm The model watching will drive you crazy.

The forecast for this one is actually pretty straightforward. I don’t expect any significant changes in the thinking between now and landfall.

I ran my sprinklers today.

Yeah, I don't seem anything tricky about this mess. A few showers along the SETX shore, but the bulk of activity in Louisiana and east.

As i said we will see , dont jinx it, until we have a defined center of circulation we still arent out of the woods

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 6:56 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:25 pm The model watching will drive you crazy.

The forecast for this one is actually pretty straightforward. I don’t expect any significant changes in the thinking between now and landfall.

I ran my sprinklers today.

Yeah, I don't seem anything tricky about this mess. A few showers along the SETX shore, but the bulk of activity in Louisiana and east.

Drive to Biloxi if you want to see any action from this one

Please pass way way east. My ac broke yesterday. 12 days for parts. Ugh