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TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:28 am Not the next couple days, but look towards Sunday through Tuesday morning for rains here with the approaching moisture and front according to the gfs model. A day later on the Ecmwf. 92l should make the next couple days hotter and drier with it's outer subsident and dry air, but can't rule out a seabreeze storm at peak heating.

Yeah as recently as yesterday the NWS had a 70% chance of rain for Saturday- that has been lowered to 30%. Meanwhile, rain chances for next Tuesday have been upped to 60%.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:32 am Pas_Bon I said I know, thats why I said I dont care if I have to deal with heavy surf and rain, im still going out boogie boarding

But you also just said it was going to make you really mad. So which is it? Are you confused or just trolling? At this point I’m beginning to wonder. The posts are non-stop.

This is going to be my last post for a while yall but I apologize for my ranting on here, its just that this makes me upset because of the timing of this system and how long me and my family and my friends have planned for this vacation.

I have almost 19500 posts. I must be trolling too!1!

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:33 am

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:28 am Not the next couple days, but look towards Sunday through Tuesday morning for rains here with the approaching moisture and front according to the gfs model. A day later on the Ecmwf. 92l should make the next couple days hotter and drier with it's outer subsident and dry air, but can't rule out a seabreeze storm at peak heating.

Yeah as recently as yesterday the NWS had a 70% chance of rain for Saturday- that has been lowered to 30%. Meanwhile, rain chances for next Tuesday have been upped to 60%.

Luckily it rained good on Tuesday evening and refreshed my plants that didn't take long to dry out and start drooping. Saturday is a good get into the water kind of day!

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:47 am I have almost 19500 posts. I must be trolling too!1!

Yeah but they didn’t all come in the last month

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:47 am I have almost 19500 posts. I must be trolling too!1!

You’ve been here for 17 years .

Side note. The sky is looking hazy already.

Back to the weather, while im on my trip ill make sure to take a few videos and pictures of the crazy weather including heavy surf and rain when I get to Destin, definitely dont mind sharing them

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:59 am

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:52 am Keep this **** away from Florida, I dont need this crap ruining my vacation that we spend months planning for

There’s not anything that anybody can do about the weather.

It rains in Orlando every day from Mid June-Late September. Always has. If you don’t want rain to interfere with your vacation, go in November. The weather is much nicer for enjoying the parks.

Exactly. That's why hotels in Florida charge higher rates from October through May. I personally loved the weather after a cooling afternoon summer shower when we lived in Florida. It's going to rain on average 8-9 inches every month in the summer.

The only time you have to run the sprinklers in Florida is during the late fall/winter when it doesn't rain much. Opposite of Texas.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:22 am

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:52 am Keep this **** away from Florida, I dont need this crap ruining my vacation that we spend months planning for,this is actually making me mad and weather never makes me mad!

Mother Nature doesn't give a flip about anyone's vacation plans.

NEXT.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 12:28 pm

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:47 am I have almost 19500 posts. I must be trolling too!1!

You’ve been here for 17 years .

Side note. The sky is looking hazy already.

The Long Con.

Looks like Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone #3 will be initiated at 4 PM.

This will be interesting as the days unfold...


Side Note: If Steve is a troll, I must be one too..LOL

If we've learned anything about tropical systems over the past 2 tropical seasons its NWS/NHC Mets > Models. Models are only 1 tool they use.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 1:49 pm If we've learned anything about tropical systems over the past 2 tropical seasons its NWS/NHC Mets > Models. Models are only 1 tool they use.

Sometimes the best thing to do is print out the 500mb NAM charts and do old-fashioned analysis with a pencil

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 2:15 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 1:49 pm If we've learned anything about tropical systems over the past 2 tropical seasons its NWS/NHC Mets > Models. Models are only 1 tool they use.

Sometimes the best thing to do is print out the 500mb NAM charts and do old-fashioned analysis with a pencil

Yep. NEXT!

Is the 500mb used to determine steering/motion?

Well the 12z Euro just came in clutch! Has some decent rains around here in 5-6 days from now. Hope it doesn’t lose it.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:01 pm Is the 500mb used to determine steering/motion?

Yep, it’s a great place to start when trying to determine the mean steering flow.