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Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 12:26 pm
by Stratton20
Scott747 we are going to have to agree to disagree, I dont bother paying much attention to anything beyond 10 days in the models, while you do look for a signal that far out and I respect that, but thats where this discussion ends
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 12:50 pm
by Cpv17
Interesting to note (I think) the 6z GFS this morning had a huge rain bomb over Matagorda county for this next upcoming event. The 12z completely dropped it and it’s within 4 days.
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 4:15 pm
by jasons2k
I edited this to simply say it’s hot and Happy Friday
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 4:55 pm
by srainhoutx
It's all good Stratton20. We welcome the conversation and discussions on friendly terms. Carry on...
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 5:13 pm
by Stratton20
Srainhoutx thank you, I had no idea that my comment would lead to a well a heated exchange , we will see what the tropics have in store for us as the months progress, but yeah its stupid hot outside, cant even touch my Car door handle without flinching
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 5:17 pm
by don
Starting to look like PTC 3 may never get classified as a tc.
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 5:22 pm
by djmike
Ok teach me. I thought TS is classified with a name at wind of 39mph and higher. PTC3 is currently with winds at 45. Why no name?
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 5:23 pm
by Stratton20
DJMike Im no weather expert either but I believe PC3 hasnt been named a tropical storm is because they haven’t found a defined or tight center of circulation, its still pretty broad
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 5:25 pm
by don
Yep they haven't been able to fine a defined LLC yet.
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 5:58 pm
by djmike
Ahhhhh! Ok. Its all about whether it can close off or not. Gotcha! Thank you!!
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 6:32 pm
by srainhoutx
This thing likely will not be named until it exits the Carolina Coast on Monday.
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:10 pm
by DoctorMu
Tropical Mess #3 is nearing landfall...whatever that means - near Morgan City, LA. Spot on per NHC guidance.
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:12 pm
by DoctorMu
There is a light outer band that "might" make it to Orange and Beaumont.
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:46 pm
by Cpv17
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:12 pm
There is a light outer band that "might" make it to Orange and Beaumont.
Yawn. Srain might actually get something outta it though.
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:54 am
by unome
from latest Claudette discussion
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Claudette
...The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the
reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system
regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to
72 hours. Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one
and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western
Atlantic Ocean.
Re: June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 5:06 am
by unome
Re: June 2021:
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:14 am
by Stratton20
Thank goodness it appears this system will be moving rapidly to the North East so all the rains should be exiting florida with the next 2 days
looks Like my vacation outlook is getting more optimistic
Re: June 2021:
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:01 pm
by don
May be time to start watching the tropics again as the GFS has been showing a sharp wave moving from the Caribbean into the Gulf around the end of the month or beginning of July.And has been hinting at possible TC genesis again.The GFS has its ups and downs like every model, but it has gotten pretty darn good at sniffing out TC genesis in the long range(Tropical storm Claudette ongoing right now for example).Still a long ways out but something to keep an eye on.
Re: June 2021:
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:09 pm
by Cpv17
don wrote: ↑Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:01 pm
May be time to start watching the tropics again as the GFS has been showing a sharp wave moving from the Caribbean into the Gulf around the end of the month or beginning of July.And has been hinting at possible TC genesis again.The GFS has its ups and downs like every model, but it has gotten pretty darn good at sniffing out TC genesis in the long range(Tropical storm Claudette ongoing right now for example).Still a long ways out but something to keep an eye on.
There’s some support from the GEFS as well.
Re: June 2021:
Posted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:20 pm
by DoctorMu
At least Claudette brought lower dewpoints into the area on the back side.
